In the first part of chapter 4 the appraisal NPV outcomes of 91 ICR reports of the LDCs were outlined and discussed. The results were positive with NPVs ranging from 17,667 to 20,067 Mio USD with total project costs of 13,981 Mio USD. Exclud- ing the 3 “high-value” NPV projects which disclosed NPVs greater than 1,000 Mio USD led to NPV values of 4,678 to 4,713 Mio USD (8,021 Mio USD of total project costs). The comparison of outcomes between of the African and Asian continents for the whole data set disclosed 2.5 to 3 times higher NPV values in Asia, even though the NPV related capital costs of both continents were equally high. Once the “high-value” NPVs were excluded, Africa’s total NPV sum of 3,827 Mio USD was more than 4.5 times higher than the 886 Mio USD in Asia. However, the NPV/capital cost ratio of Asia was still slightly higher than the one of Africa. In the subsequent chapter the 68 NPVs of the result stage were evaluated. Aside from the 14 negative and neutral NPVs, the results were (highly) positive with NPV values of 42,059 to 50, 779 Mio USD with 33,506 Mio USD of total project costs, and 6,188 to 7,799 Mio USD with 20,280 Mio USD of total project costs for the LDCs when excluding the 7 “high-value” NPV projects. The comparison between the continental results showed a higher NPV as well as a higher NPV/capital cost ratio in Asia. Even with the ex- clusion of the “high-value” NPVs, the NPV/capital cost ratio of Asia was still close to
166 twice as high as the African one. Whether or not the continental NPV and cost value differences were due to differences in project types accordingly to the WB funding could not be evaluated further since the WB funding made up only 27 percent of the total project costs for a data set of 168 NPVs (39 percent of the total project costs for the data set excluding “high-value” NPVs). In order to compare the planned NPV and cost values of the appraisal stage with the ones of the result stage, 67 projects could be used as the comparison basis. Interestingly, the result stage NPVs were 2 times higher even though the cost values were slightly lower. Excluding the 4 “high- value” NPVs, appraisal stage showed a slightly higher minimum NPV compared to the result stage. However, the maximum NPV of the result stage was slightly higher than the one of the appraisal stage. Although the NPV related capital and total pro- ject costs increased by roughly 8 and 14 percent from the appraisal to the result stage, project outcomes are generally found to be developing as planned.
The analysis of the ERRs showed that the 159 NPV-intersectional ERRs disclosed slightly lower arithmetic means than the total of the 219 ERRs. Excluding the 20 “high-value” ERRs disclosing values of 100 or higher, the picture shifts towards min- imal higher arithmetic means of the intersectional ERRs compared to the ERRs of the non-NPV projects. Still, the minimum and maximum arithmetic means of the ERRs of the non-NPV projects were respectively 18.91 and 31.35 percent and thus much higher than the corresponding discount rate of 10.83 percent. The comparison of the continents based on the entire data set revealed the following facts:
Africa disclosed higher ERR values than Asia for both groups –the ERRs of the NPV projects and the non-NPV project ERRs.
Even though the differences for the ERRs of the NPV projects were negligi- ble, the African minimum arithmetic mean of 48.79 percent of the non-NPV projects was more than twice as much as the Asian maximum of 23.97 per- cent.
Through the exclusion of the 20 “high-value” ERRs, the picture changed in such a way that Africa still disclosed higher total ERRs for both the minimum and maximum arithmetic means.
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A more in depth look at the 2 groups revealed that Asia’s maximum arithmetic mean (34.69 percent) of the ERRs of the NPV projects was slightly higher than the 32.6 percent in Africa, albeit differentiated by just over 1 percent.
Above all, the 35.57 percent maximum value of the ERRs of the non-NPV projects in Africa was still significantly higher than the 23.97 percent in Asia. The analysis of the additional economic and financial indicators only produced li- mited insights. Whilst the analysis was able to show to a limited degree that there are additional projects which outlined positive outcomes in 4 of the economic and financial indicators other than the NPV or ERR, for the most part, the amount of the additional indicators is negligible and there was overall, insufficient financial infor- mation to adequately bring the outlined values in line with the NPV or ERRs. In order to establish a concept on how potential outcomes of the remainder of projects which did not disclosed any economic or financial indicators could look like, the overall project performance and the results of the disclosed ERRs were used. Even though the outcomes based on varying ERR share factors were positive and only a little below the results of the ones of the NPV and non-NPV groups, they can only be regarded as approximations, since no further project details were considered. In the final part of the economic and financial analysis chapter the outcomes of all NPVCRs based on the data set as disclosed within the ICRs showed positive results throughout. Obviously, the more cost types that were considered, the worse the NPVCR. Nonetheless, for the data set which excluded the 10 “high-value” projects, the discounted weighted and unweighted ratios maintained (highly) positive with val- ues between 1.58 in the weighted minimum case and 3.19 in the unweighted maxi- mum case based on the inclusion of all outlined project costs (total-capital plus re- curring-costs ratio). The continent comparison based on the exclusion of “high- value” NPVs showed mixed results consisting of higher African ratios for the un- weighted but lower weighted NPVCRs. Looking at the standardized outcomes the capital costs solely based ratios of the LDCs disclosed positive results throughout, even with the exclusion of the 10 “high-value” projects. Furthermore, the recurring costs based NPVCRs disclosed high weighted and unweighted ratios. Even for the
168 unadjusted unweighted recurring costs coefficient of 13.29, all ratios ranged be- tween 1.58 and 1.99 when all project costs were included. When the “high-value” projects were excluded, the ratios dropped but still remained positive with a weighted recurring costs coefficient of 2.64. This translated to values between 1.29 for the weighted minimum and 2.17 for the unweighted maximum case of the total- capital plus recurring costs NPVCR. The continental comparison of the whole data set outlined higher capital costs solely based NPVCRs for the Asian continent, which in the case of weighted ratios were more than twice as high as the African ones. Even with the exclusion of “high-values”, Asia still showed higher values throughout, lending support to the fact that the projects run in Asia are indeed more capital costs effective than projects in Africa. With regards to the recurring costs related NPVCRs, it needs to be noted that the weighted and unweighted recurring costs coefficients were much higher in Asian compared to Africa. However, as a result of the “high- value” NPV projects, Asia still disclosed higher weighted ratios even when compar- ing the results of the Asian unadjusted unweighted recurring costs coefficient of 28.8 against the African one of 4.35. Further on this, Asia disclosed higher weighted NPVCRs based on comparably high coefficients. Excluding the 10 “high-value” pro- jects demonstrated almost unchanged recurring costs coefficients for both conti- nents, even though there was notable decline in continental differences. Although Asia still disclosed slightly higher weighted ratios for comparable recurring costs coefficients and thus a higher percentile monetary amount generation than Africa, the picture for the unweighted NPVCRs looked quite different. With higher un- weighted minimum but lower maximum values, the Asian outcomes appear ed to be more stable and predictable. In order to account for the remaining capital costs of the partial-NPVs, the capital SROI ratio was calculated using different recurring costs coefficients. Even for the initial and unadjusted unweighted recurring costs coefficient of 13.29, both weighted and unweighted ratios were positive. The cleansed data set of 158 NPVs also disclosed positive outcomes for each of the recurring costs coefficients. Considering the weighted coefficient of 2.64, the weighted outcomes remained between 1.09 and 1.17, whereas the unweighted cap- ital SROI ratio resulted with higher arithmetic means of 1.46 and 1.94. The continent comparison of the full data set looked one-sided: Higher Asian capital SROI ratios
169 for any recurring costs coefficient, whereas the African weighted minimum ratios were consistently below 1 for any of the African recurring costs coefficients. When excluding the “high-value” projects and considering comparable high recurring costs coefficients, the continent comparison revealed the same picture as for the stand- ardized values: Higher weighted capital SROI ratios as well as a higher unweighted minimum capital SROI ratio, but a lower unweighted maximum capital SROI ratio in Asia. Thus as an outcome of the continental comparison, it can be summarized that Asia usually disclosed little higher weighted, more stable and predictable un- weighted ratio outcomes. In the penultimate chapter, the theoretic minimum SROI ratio was calculated. Therefore, the assumption that the remaining capital costs of the partial-NPVs come along with additional recurring costs was taken. Deducting those –theoretically assumed– recurring costs from the NPV values still disclosed positive weighted and unweighted SROIs for all except 1 recurring costs indicators across all LDCs. For the initial unadjusted unweighted recurring costs indicator of 13.29, both of the weighted ratios were below 1 with arithmetic means of 0.74 in the minimum and 0.82 in the maximum case, whereas the unweighted SROI ratio still lay between 0.98 and 1.25. Excluding the 10 high bolter projects disclosed positive results throughout only for the fully embellished recurring costs coefficient of 0.62. Even for the adjusted recurring costs coefficient of 1.17 the weighted minimum value of the minimum SROI came down to 0.94. Using the weighted recurring costs coef- ficient of 2.64, both weighted ratios were below 1, with an unweighted minimum SROI ratio range between 1.27 and 1.68. Only when applying the initial unadjusted unweighted recurring costs coefficient of 12.99 the weighted minimum value fell to 0.91. The continental comparison of the total 168 NPV projects showed that Asia discloses about 4 times higher weighted results as well as higher unweighted results for the minimum SROI based on comparably high recurring costs coefficients. Even for the fully embellished unweighted coefficient of 0.56, Africa’s weighted minimum SROI ratio was below 1, even for the maximum case. In comparison, Asia’s mini- mum SROIs were all positive, except the unweighted minimum ratio of 0.93 of the initial unadjusted unweighted recurring costs coefficient of 28.8. Since the African initial unadjusted unweighted recurring costs of 4.35 was much lower, all un- weighted ratios are (highly) above 1. With the exclusion of the “high-values” the
170 Asian ratios dropped most notably. However, for comparable recurring costs coeffi- cients, Asia disclosed a higher weighted minimum SROI which was still positive in the minimum case for the adjusted recurring costs coefficient of 1.6. Africa only dis- closed 1 positive weighted minimum SROI ratio which was the maximum ratio value of 1.02 of the fully embellished unweighted recurring costs of 0.56. The unweighted ratios of both continents were all positive, except for the Asian recurring costs coef- ficient of 28.59. As a conclusion of the continental minimum SROI comparison, the African weighted results appear to be value degenerating from an overall monetary point of view. Positively noted is the fact that regardless of the monetary size re- spective to the projects’ costs, the projects generate positive outcomes within both continents on average, but with more stable and predictable unweighted ratio out- comes in Asia.
The last chapter of the economic and financial analysis delved further into the NPV projects and the driving factors for high recurring costs coefficients and a low weighted minimum SROI ratio. An outcome of this analysis revealed 5 “high-value” recurring costs coefficient projects. These projects outlined low NPVs, NPV related capital and total project costs. Furthermore, the WB funding amount of the total pro- ject costs was unusually high, specifically in the ‘Distribution and Transmission’ sec- tor code. In the case where the 5 projects and the “high-values” were excluded when calculating the unweighted recurring costs coefficient for the LDCs, the coefficient came down from 12.99 to 2.4.
The analysis also revealed an additional 10 projects with calculated minimum NPVs of less than -200 Mio USD. These projects disclosed NPVs less than the average NPV of the LDCs excluding “high-value” NPVs, but maintained high NPV related capital costs and even higher total project costs. In the case where these projects were excluded from the data set, the remaining 148 projects disclosed a positive capital SROI ratio of 1.2 and 1.28 for the weighted and 1.51 and 2.01 in the un- weighted case. Furthermore, the minimum SROI ratio of 1 and 1.06 in the weighted and the 1.3 and 1.72 in the unweighted case were as well positive.
Considering these findings, it needs to be summarized that even in the worst case scenario, the calculated minimum SROI resulted in positive outcomes. Therefore, it can be concluded, that the projects delivered by the WB have a positive effect on
171 the LDCs for the researched data set. Furthermore, the projects generating the high- est minimum SROIs were generally projects with approx. 2.5 times above-average NPVs of 104 and 112 Mio USD, and low NPV related capital and total project costs of 40 and 42 Mio USD respectively. Additionally, those projects were generally more focused on the ‘Power’ and less on the ‘Roads and highways’ sector compared to the average NPV project of the LDCs.
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5
Qualitative Data Analysis
This chapter focuses on the qualitative data analysis of ICR reports used in this research paper. The qualitative data analysis represents the second of the 2 major parts of this doctoral thesis. The following chapter discusses the type of qualitative data analysis –content analysis– used for this research project. Subsequent chap- ters then define and further explain the 3 types of content analyses –namely the sustainability evaluation and the bank and borrower performance. In the end, a clos- ing chapter concludes each of the 3 areas summarizing findings and providing rec- ommendations on how to address negative sustainability ratings and negative per- formance outcomes.