CAPÍTULO 3. PLAN DE MARKETING Y COMERCIALIZACIÓN
3.1. Objetivos
modeling framework
In order to properly design the architecture of a generic multi-method modeling framework, the following set of requirements is taken under consideration:
1. Modeling requirements in the context of integrated water resources management; 2. Requirements of the integrated water resources management (IWRM) process; 3. Requirements for addressing complexity of water resources systems (WRS).
In the last several decades, due to the complexities of water resources systems and far reaching social, economic and environmental effects of engineering and administrative solutions, computer models have become a stepping stone in almost every water resources management process. According to Karamouz et al. (2003), a water resources management process is divided into 5 distinct stages, Figure 2:
1. Problem definition and data collection and processing; 2. Modeling stage;
3. Decision making stage; 4. Implementation stage;
5. Continuous monitoring stage.
After gathering all the necessary information and clearly defining the problem (Stage 1), simulation and optimization models are used in the modeling stage for finding possible alternative solutions (Stage 2). In the next phase, conflict resolution and multi-objective analysis are used to compare different alternatives. As seen in this figure, the selection of feasible alternatives, in many cases, depends on social and economic issues related to institutional framework and distribution of financial resources. Political issues may also influence the decisions if policy makers do not effectively participate in the planning process (Stage 3). After the final decision has been reached, the implementation phase implements the solutions (Stage 4). In the last phase (Stage 5), monitoring, evaluation and feedback to decision makers are carried out in order to adapt the planning schemes and the operating processes.
Additionally, a modeling stage of water resources management includes a number of distinct steps that must be taken, Figure 2 (Stage 2).
Figure 2: Modeling stage (2) in water resources management process
Prior to the actual model development phase, a model developer needs to properly analyze and formulate the existing problem. After the problem has been formulated, a modeler is required to collect, store and process all necessary data. For this reason, a database must be created to store and manage all relevant information. This stage also identifies the set of problem constraints and clearly defines the model objectives. Based on this, a modeler selects the most appropriate set of models to describe physical, chemical or environmental processes related to water management, such as water distribution systems models, models that describe groundwater dynamics and quality,
watershed runoff models, stream hydraulics models, river and reservoir water quality models, or reservoir/river system operation models. A coupling of different models and their data exchange is often required to capture the scale and structural complexity of the water resources management problems. Therefore, responses to the requirements of the modeling stage are:
A database to store and manage all relevant information and data; and
A set of process-based models to describe physical, chemical or environmental processes.
According to the definition of IWRM and in order to support the systems view principle, the most important requirement of a newly designed modeling framework is an authentic representation of the interactions between natural resources and the socio-economic environment. In studies that include diverse social and large spatial scales, social and economic processes can be represented on different levels of abstraction – system (also known as aggregated) level and more specific individual-centric (or disaggregated) level. Depending on the scale, the framework allows representation of both levels by using one of two, or possibly both, modeling methods: system dynamics simulation for the system level and/or agent-based models for the individual-centric level. Consequently, responses to the requirements of the integrated water resources management process are:
System dynamics simulation for representation of socio-economic processes at the system level (aggregated); and
Agent-based model for representation of socio-economic processes at the individual-centric level (disaggregated).
In addition to the requirements of both the modeling stage and the integrated approach to water resources management, the main requirement of suggested architecture is authentic representation of the key aspects of complex water resources systems:
Definition of a feedback based system structure between system elements;
Analysis of structural complexities and variability of different spatial and temporal scales; and
Promotion of active stakeholder participation and involvement.
Based on previously listed requirements the proposed framework developed in this research contains a spatial database as the core component, Component 1, Figure 3. This database stores both spatial and non-spatial information required in the modeling process and directly provides necessary information to other components present in the system. Component 2 includes a set of traditional process-based models used to describe the physical, chemical and biological environments. Traditionally applied process-based computer models in water resources management are water distribution system models, groundwater dynamics and quality models, watershed runoff models, stream hydraulics models, river and reservoir water quality models, and, finally, reservoir and river system operation models. Depending on the particular problem being analyzed, a modeler selects which process-based model should be used in the system.
On the other side, different characteristics of socio-economic environment are represented using Agent-based (AB) (individual-centric) and/or System Dynamics (SD) simulation (system level) modeling methods, Component 3 and/or Component 4 in Figure 3. While system dynamics simulation presents a well-recognized and explored methodology for describing the dynamic behavior of a complex system, agent-based simulation represents a relatively new modeling methodology based on the distributed artificial intelligence. The main idea behind multi-agent models is to build virtual complex system representations composed of autonomous agents, or identified system entities, which operate on a local knowledge, possess limited abilities, affect and are affected by the local environment, and thus enact the desired global system behavior. Agent-based models offer a number of ways to model processes at various spatial and temporal scales, and this makes them perfectly suitable for the implementation in water resources systems management.
Figure 3: Architecture of the generic multi-method modeling framework
Designed generic modeling framework allows integration of components by choosing one of three available coupling methods: embedded; tight; or loose. The framework uses a set of output maps, tables, and figures to present the obtained results. Finally, the multi- method modeling framework allows utilization of simulation scenarios. Scenarios can be used to answer various what/if water management questions as well as to validate the results. In the case of integrated water resources management, scenarios can be used to assess the impact of changing land use practices, planned water use, and the hydrologic effects of climate change.