Problemas de comunicación intercultural en el ámbito de la SSyR: el caso

0 100 200 300 400 500

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 quarters thous. 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 mln euro Emigration remittances

An analysis of remittances in the balance of payments clearly shows upward trend after accessing the European Union. In 2003 they reached 2.3% of GDP, 7.2% of export and 57% of direct investments in our country. Economists agree that transfer of earnings influence the level of consumption, raising the living standard of households at the some time. More and more Polish companies set up their branches in the countries where the number of emigrants is the highest. They encourage people to invest their money, especially in estate market.

Impact of this kind of transfers on the economy is connected with character of work-related trips – it is safe to assume that more and more young and educated Polish emigrants will spend greater amount of money in foreign countries. According to survey level of education is in strong-negative relationship with tendency to transferring money to domestic country.

An increase in consumer and investment demand (triggered by raising level of transferred earnings) leads to rise of production and income in economy, but it can initiate (especially in long period of time) inflationary pressures. As long as Poland remains outside the zone of uniform currency as part of EU, increased inflow of foreign capital can lead to an appreciation of domestic currency, which means drop in the rate of exchange. It can influence on competitiveness of Polish products and on decrease of export.

Conclusion

An attempt to estimate the influence of emigration on Polish economy condition ought to be constructed in terms of observed effects and long-term results, that is in possible scenarios of events which depend on many, difficult to predict, variables.

The analysis of a growing scale of migration, especially since Poland has became a member of The European Union, shows the following: decrease in unemployment rate, increase in consumer and investment demand, rise in living standards of household, rise in real wage level. At the same time, we

start to observe a deficit in some professions on the market (health care, construction worker), and also the fact that generally young, aged 18–34, and higher educated people migrate to work.

According to a demographic forecast, which CSO made up to 2030, the number of people at working age will be increasing and it will reach the largest number – 1350.4 thousand in 2010. In the following years, the forecast predicts a consistent drop in the number of people in this age bracket to 1201,5 in 2030. Simultaneously, at this time the number (and participation – 25%) of people in the post-working age will increase, and the number of people in the pre-working will fall by 30%. The mass migrations, especially for permanent residence, can speed up the ageing process of society in significant way.

On the other hand, according to demographic forecasts, the ageing process of society in the “old” Union countries will be running relatively slower, what should lessen demand for emigrants. It is safe to assume that standards of living, including incomes, which will be levelling off in the European Union countries, will counteract departures from Poland. On account of predicted negative natural increase and negative migration balance, it should be expected that Poland will become a destination country, particularly for workers from outside the European Union. Statistical data confirm increasing phenomenon of immigration in Poland. If we also assume that the scale of reimmigration will increase a in long-term, the presented factor should lessen considerably the effect of the ageing process and brain drain, thereby smoothing away negative effects of emigration of the Poles in the labour market. Therefore it is difficult to agree with a pessimistic vision of analysts who predict rise in inflation, increase in competitiveness of economy and significant drop in GDP within the nearest 20 years, which will be caused by migrations processes.

Summary

This article presents short-term and long-term results of external migration on Polish economy. The analysis covers the period from 2002 to 2006 that is two years before and two years after the Poland’s accession to the European Union. An overall description of the impact of migration on basic economic categories, such as unemployment, real wages, inflation, per capita GDP and remittance has been provided. An attempt to estimate the influence of migration on unemployment was also made using the multiple regression model.

References:

1. R.Barrell, C. Guillemineau, I. Liadze, Migration in Europe, National Institute of Economic

Review No 198, 2006.

2. TheWorld Bank, Migration and Remittances. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, 2006.

3. B. Kłos, Migracja zarobkowa Polaków do krajów UE, Infos nr 2/2006, Biuro Analiz Sejmowych,

Warszawa 2006.

4. European Commission, Labour migration in Europe: Recent trends, future challenges, European

Economy, Economic Papers No 256, 2006.

5. Ministerstwo Gospodarki, Wpływ emigracji zarobkowej na gospodarkę Polski, Warszawa 2007.

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w państwach Europejskiego Obszaru Gospodarczego i Szwajcarii oraz obywateli państw EOG w Polsce, Warszawa 2007.

7. Rządowa Rada Ludnościowa, Sytuacja demograficzna Polski, Synteza Raportu 2005-2006, GUS

Warszawa 2007.

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