El proceso de desarrollo de la industria petrolera angolana y su

Data concerning the ethnic and occupational profile of international and internal inflows and outflows, particularly over time, is limited. As a consequence it is not possible to undertake the detailed analysis (similar to that undertaken in Section 4.2 to 4.4) of the contribution of

migration flows to the ethnic and occupational profile of the population.

That said, earlier sections of this report have discussed the characteristics of internal and international migrants, at a snapshot point in time, facilitating some qualitative analysis of the impact of migration patterns.

International migration

Looking at international migration, unsurprisingly a significant proportion of those moving to the region from overseas are from minority ethnic groups and will therefore be acting to increase the diversity of the East Midlands population. That said, A8 migrants are more commonly of white ethnic groups, although like BME groups will exhibit similar integration difficulties.

Moreover, it is not known whether these migrants will settle in the UK and it is ultimately the ethnic profile of net international migration that will dictate the direct impact of international migration flows on the ethnic profile of the population.

Turning to the contribution of international migration flows to changes in the occupational profile of the population, it is arguably the occupational profile of the economy that drives the types of roles migrant workers are filling, rather than the other way around. Moreover, the occupational profile of migrant workers is also driven to some extent by UK immigration policy, particularly sector-based schemes and work permit restrictions.

Indeed, this (and other studies69_{) have highlighted that migrant workers are finding employment}

in both low skill roles (e.g. elementary occupations in food processing and other manufacturing and hospitality) as well as technical occupations (often in the construction industry) and higher skilled roles in health and teaching.

69 _{See particularly “Migrant Workers in the East Midlands Labour Market”, Institute of Employment}

Internal migration

For internal migration it is intra-regional migration flows at the local level that are of greatest interest. Census and APS data suggest that a greater proportion of those moving into the region from elsewhere in the UK are from minority ethnic groups compared to those moving out. In occupational terms, evidence from the Census suggests that the region is gaining more people from elsewhere in the UK employed within routine and semi-routine occupations than it is losing to other regions, as well as gaining more managers and professionals. However, the net gain of those employed in routine and semi-routine occupations far outweighs the net gain of those in managerial and professional occupations (by around 5,000 people on Census data). Considering intra-regional migration movements, it is clear that the patterns of city flight witnessed over the last decade are dominated by white people moving away from the cities towards rural areas.

Moreover, evidence from the Census suggests that it is those working within higher level occupations, such as managers and professionals, that are more likely to move from the region’s three cities to its rural areas. Meanwhile, those employed within routine and semi-routine occupations are less likely to make this move.

Collectively, this suggests that city-flight migration patterns are likely to act to concentrate ethnic minority groups and those employed in low skilled occupations in the cities, whilst the rural areas gain numbers of those working in managerial and professional occupations.

6 The contribution of migration flows to

demographic change going forward

KEY MESSAGES

• Trend-based population projections suggest that over the next 20 years the population of the East Midlands will continue to grow rapidly.

• This will be particularly true in Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, whilst the populations of Nottingham, Leicester and Derby are forecast to remain fairly static.

• Trend-based projections show that the population will continue to age. The pensionable age population will continue to grow much more rapidly than the working age population, leading to higher aged dependency ratios. The largest increase will be in Lincolnshire and Rutland.

• Migration will continue to be the main driver of population growth, particularly internal migration. Without migration the population would remain fairly static.

• Internal migration is expected to continue to push up aged dependency ratios, whilst international migration should have the opposite effect.

• Scenario 1 shows the likely effects of international in-migration falling back to pre-2000 levels. The region’s population would grow slightly less rapidly, whilst the largest impact would be in the three cities sub-region, with Nottingham’s total population declining year on year.

• It is also likely that the largest effect of such changes would be on the working age

population. The working age population would remain almost completely static over the 20- year period, whilst the pensionable age population would continue to grow at trend-based rates.

• Scenario 2 shows that there are some discrepancies between trend-based population projections and RSS dwelling-led population projections. Dwelling-led projections are notably higher for Leicester, Derby and Northamptonshire, but lower for Rutland and several other rural areas. The largest discrepancies are in Northampton and Corby (where RSS projections are higher), both of which are part of the Milton Keynes and South Midlands Growth Area.

• Scenario 3 analyses the possible effect of the East Midlands becoming more ‘competitive’. It is likely that the population will grow more rapidly, driven by higher net internal migration and higher flows of international in-migration. It is also likely that the region would attract larger numbers of young working families, helping to cushion aged dependency ratios. • Sub-regionally, the cities of Nottingham, Leicester and Derby are expected under this

scenario to reduce the process of ‘city flight’. This will help their populations grow more rapidly, although outside the cities the population will grow below trend as net internal migration is lower.

6.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter considers the role that migration flows are likely to play in shaping demographics in the East Midlands in the future. It begins by considering trend-based population projections (based on ONS Sub-National Population Projections) and the role that migration will play if past trends continue into the future.

the economic climate in the East Midlands and elsewhere may influence migration patterns, based on our analysis of the key drivers of demographic change.

6.2 TREND BASED POPULATION PROJECTIONS