LA PROGNOSIS JUDICIAL DE PENA EN EL DERECHO COMPARADO

Research on the consequences of higher-education non-completion at the individual level shows both positive and negative tendencies. On the one hand, dropping out is often described in the literature as a personal failure (Schröder-Gronostay and Daniel 1999), and seems to put psychological, financial and social strain on students who have left higher education (e.g. Klein and Stocké 2016). On the other hand, other studies find that non-completion can be an efficient, rational and natural selection process for individuals, enabling students to minimise ill-advised investments in education and to improve their educational biography (Schnepf 2015).

There are inconclusive results concerning the labour market outcomes of dropping out of higher education. Dropouts do not have a higher risk of being unemployed than higher-education graduates, and have been found to be no worse off than upper-secondary school graduates who never enrolled in higher education (Lewin et al. 1995; Schnepf 2015; Stegmann and Kraft 1988). Yet the results are less positive regarding other occupational prospects, such as the quality of jobs attained or employment relationships. Previous studies have found that higher-education dropouts have a higher risk of working part time or on fixed-term contracts, and on average obtain

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lower wages than higher-education graduates (Becker, Grebe and Bleikertz 2010; Griesbach, Lewin and Schacher 1977; Lewin et al. 1995). The German research institute HIS6 has been particularly active in analysing the occupational outcomes of higher- education dropouts in Germany. Lewin et al. (Lewin et al. 1995) examine the labour market outcomes of dropouts, and find that only 8 per cent of all dropouts who left higher education in 1984 were unemployed, and that 36 per cent entered the labour market after leaving the higher-education system. Comparing the labour market outcomes of higher- education graduates and dropouts in 1974–75, Griesbach et al. (1998) find no difference in the unemployment rate after leaving the educational system: in both groups only 4 per cent are unemployed. While most graduates entered the labour market directly, 35 per cent of the dropouts entered the vocational training system, which might explain their low unemployment rate. On the contrary, higher-education dropouts who directly enter the labour market earn lower wages and obtain lower occupational status than graduates.

Similar results have been found in the more recent literature. For example, Becker et al. (2010) examined the labour market outcomes of higher-education dropouts and STEM graduates. Stegmann and Kraft (1988) compare the occupational outcomes of higher-education graduates and dropouts with those of upper-secondary education graduates with formal vocational qualifications from 1976. In line with the results of Griesbach et al. (1998), they find that higher-education dropouts are not more likely to be unemployed, but achieve lower occupational status and a lower income than higher- education graduates. Compared to upper-secondary education graduates who obtained a vocational qualification, higher-education dropouts achieve a slightly higher income but no higher occupational status. The most recent research finds that, in contrast to other countries, higher-education dropouts in Germany do not have an advantage in holding professional and managerial positions over upper-secondary education graduates who never entered higher education (Schnepf 2014; Schnepf 2015).

In summary, reviewing the previous research on the individual consequences of not completing higher education shows that recent empirical evidence on the labour market outcomes of higher-education dropouts is rather scarce in Germany. One reason for this shortcoming is that most data focusing on higher-education students do not

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include information on their careers. Thus, labour market outcomes cannot be examined at all. Furthermore, data often only focus on individuals who have been enrolled in higher-education institutions (Becker, Grebe and Bleikertz 2010; Griesbach et al. 1998; Lewin et al. 1995). Consequently, a comparison of labour market outcomes of different groups is not possible, although necessary if one wants to clarify whether dropping out of higher education has a negative or positive impact on labour market outcomes. Those who also focus on individuals who have not been enrolled in higher-education institutions (Schnepf 2014; Schnepf 2015; Stegmann and Kraft 1988), however, do not take into account the possibility that higher-education dropouts may enter the labour market with additional non-tertiary vocational qualifications. Yet these vocational credentials might explain why the unemployment rates are the same for higher-education dropouts and graduates. Last but not least, the literature ignores the impact of macro-level conditions on first jobs that higher-education dropouts are able to attain. Prior research suggests that poor labour market conditions negatively affect employment outcomes, especially for the less-educated reference group (e.g. Klein 2015; Pollmann-Schult 2005). Whether this is also true for higher-education dropouts has not been examined yet.

3.3.1. Guiding research question – Part II

In Part II, this dissertation contributes to the existing literature by addressing the following guiding research question: Are higher-education dropouts worse off in terms of first labour market outcomes compared to upper-secondary education leavers with additional formal qualifications, such as higher-education or vocational training credentials?

To answer this question, Chapter 7 examines the first labour market outcomes of higher-education dropouts in Germany. Using the NEPS Starting Cohort 6 I assess whether dropouts benefit from additional vocational training outside higher education by comparing the occupational outcomes of education leavers with different educational qualifications. In Chapter 8 I analyse the consequences of favourable and poor labour market conditions on the first jobs secured by higher-education vs. graduates.

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