Programa de capacitación

Climate change is a major issue that contemporary cities need to face. The impact of mankind into the environment is relevant and proved by several studies (Crutzen, 2006; IPCC, 2013; Steffen et al., 2007; EEA; 2017). Into this paragraph a general and brief overview of the mankind impact on environment is given, in order to understand main issues for urban planning to be addressed. These can be summed up as following:

- global warming leading to important effects on urban contexts;

- emissions of pollutant, leading to effects on citizens health, on cultural heritage and on climate;

- lack of resilience: the inability of complex systems to react quickly both during exceptional events and slower climate, social, environmental, economic changes (defined stresses and shocks).

Although other relevant effects and issues under climate change can be evidenced, the present research decided to focus only on these three major ones, as directly affecting cities and planning strategies.

Under the definition of global warming the research briefly investigates the general trends of temperature increase at the global level. Several studies, in fact, underline a fast raise in the annual temperature of Earth, which lead to several problems into people life: not only ecosystem challenges (ice melting, disappearing rainforests, etc.) making the general Earth ecosystem in danger for human life, but also challenges linked with urban life, such as Heat Waves, changes in rainfalls, outdoor un-comfort, need for implementing buildings systems for cooling and heating (which can lead to fuel poverty issues), draughts, water shortage, etc. (IPCC, 2013; University of Oxford, 2016; EEA, 2017).

Studies on global warming define three main reasons for the general increase of surface temperature on Earth: volcanic eruptions, solar variability and

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anthropogenic activities. The first two factors are natural and they have been present from the ancient history of the planet. Their role into global warming is documented and it concurs with anthropogenic activities to the total surface temperature. Nevertheless, comparing current measures of surface temperature with the normal planet temperature era variations, it is possible to affirm that the fast growing of temperature from XIX century is mainly due to human and, in particular, to the emissions of pollutants coming from anthropogenic activities.

Different scientists agreed with the assertion that last three decades have been warmer on Earth’s surface than ever, since 1850 (IPCC, 2013). The period from 1983 to 2012 was the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data has been calculated as equivalent of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880 to 2012. In combination with the warming temperature, emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG)¹ are rising, including not only CO₂ but also methane, nitrous, oxide and ozone.

The carbon dioxide, in particular, is considered as the main anthropogenic product coming from combustion of carbon-based fuels, principally coal, oil, natural gas and deforestation.

Figure 1.6 gives the evidence of the increase in GHG production along years.

In particular it is evident a peak near the end of XX century, but the increase is registered as constant from the end of 1970’s. The more produced gas can be recognised in CO₂, coming from fossil fuel use and industrial processes, which is the main problematic gas for the environment and mankind ecosystem. To sum up, scientists mainly agree considering human activities and, in particular, the spread use of fossil fuel, the main responsible for temperature raise and air quality degradation, with a fast growing curve from the pre-industrial era. In fact, anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, caused by economy, population growth and fossil fuel-based lifestyle. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in the mankind history. Figure 1.5 shows this evidence, putting in relation the observed warming with the main forces acting on the environment. The diffusion of cars and the mass production is seen, generally, as one of the main causes of this peaks in constant growing. In September 2016, observations on Mauna Loa Observatory -the world’s marquee site for monitoring

1 see Glossary-Greenhouse gas, p. 20.

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carbon dioxide- recorded the meeting of the maximum peak for ppm levels on the atmosphere (400 ppm), which is the non-return level point defined by scientists.

Ralph Keeling (the director of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography) (Scripps Institute of Oceanography, 2016)² explained how humans have altered the plants process of absorbing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in a definitive way, by adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than plants can take up, during the year.

As described in (EEA, 2017) climate change has several impacts on societies and people life. Even if, a deep analysis on specific built environment and urban impacts has not been performed, the report evidences several impact trends:

• worsening of climate-related extreme events, both in frequency and intensity and with them worsening of their economic impact³;

• increasing healthcare problems. In particular heat waves are responsibleseveral premature deaths in Europe.

• increasing heavy precipitations and extreme coastal water levels;

• increasing heat waves and extreme cold (both in intensity and lenght), causing also several deaths;

• increasing deseases;

• changing energy demand and, in particular, increasing cooling energy.

Last EEA report (EEA, 2017) shows in addition the role of forecasting in climate change projections, in order to understand which can be the possible future of clima and, in consequence, of people. The new scientific method named RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathaways) put in relation climate change with policies, forecasting five different scenarios, named SSPs (shared socio-economic pathaways) (EEA, 2017; O’Neill et al., 2015):

• SPP1: “Sustainability - Taking the Green Road”. This scenario expects the implementation of actions for mitigation and adaptation, “low population growth associated with educational and health improvements, reductions in

2 See the blog post inside the web page of the Institute, available at the following link: https://

scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/09/23/note-on-reaching-the-annual-low-point/

3 Note that the report (EEA,2017, p. 195) says: “[...] in Europe [...] the average annual (inflation-cor-rected) losses from climate extremes have increased from EUR 7.6 billion in the 1980s to EUR 13 billion in the 1990s and EUR 13.7 billion in the 2000s [...]”, and that “the most costly climate extremes were the 2002 flood in central Europe (EUR 20 billion), followed by the 2003 drought and heat wave (EUR 16 billion) and the 1999 winter storm ‘Lothar’ (EUR 14 billion)”. In Italy, losses for climate-related extreme events are existamed in 59,624 euro millions, in respect with 1,945 euro millions insured (3%).

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global inequality, increasingly effective international cooperation, and increasing environmental awareness that leads to improved resource efficiency, a boost in green technologies and low energy demand”.

• SPP2: “Middle of the Road”, which assums that future will not differs in social, economic and tehcnological implementation in respect with history. This scenario leads to “moderate population growth, slow progress towards achieving sustainability goals and the persistence of fossil fuel dependency, as well as income inequalities”.

• SPP3: “Regional Rivalry — A Rocky Road”. This scenario assumes the increase of nationalism, conflicts and low international cooperation, authoritarian politics, leading to “strong population growth in developing countries and low economic development with islands of moderate growth, but also widespread poverty, limited environmental concerns, and growing resource intensity and fossil fuel use”.

• SPP4: “Inequality — A Road Divided” assuming unequeal development in different regions and countries, increasing the division between country with high level of education and wealth and the other.

• SPP5: “Fossil-fuelled Development — Taking the Highway” based on exploitation of fossil fuels and resource uses.

This analysis is important for having a picture of future possible pathway, in relation with climate change and socio-economic development. Figure 1.7 puts in evidence the position of the five scenarios in respect with mitigation and adaptation policy challenges.

Main issue Urban challenges to be addressed Global warming - Urban Heat Islands

- Heat waves

- Change in seasonal rainfalls - Drought and flooding - Ecosystem survival Pollutant emission - Decrease of air quality

- Water and natural resources quality - Ecosystem survival

Lack of resilience - Flooding due to lack of soil permeability and absence of vegetation - Decrease of air quality due to lack of green

- Outdoor un-comfort due to heat waves and heat islands - Water shortage due to the decrease in precipitation - etc.

Table 1. 3 Summary of some urban challenges linked with climate change

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The third element to be considered is resilience . With this word the research aims to address the ability of cities to react quickly and adapt to occurring events, which can be due to slow climate change, but also to unexpected events. Into this research we mainly address climate resilience, in other term the ability of a city to react to events such as heat islands, heat waves, drought, flooding, water and resource shortage, energy picks of demand, etc. (City of Copenhagen (eds), 2014a;

Pickett et al., 2013; Brown, 2015; Davoudi, 2012).

As a resume and a conclusion, each of the highlighted issues leads to urban challenges that need to be evaluated and considered into the planning phase of SC strategies. Table 1.3 gives a resume of that.

Figure 1 .7 The Five SPPs Scenarios. Source: EEA, 2017; O'Neill et al., 2015