PRUEBA DE TEMPERATURA Y HUMEDAD

5.4.1 We have so far considered three options for such an interchange station:

• No Interchange Station – Direct, fast trains all the way to Euston Station

• An interchange station at Old Oak Common – with direct connections to GWML and Crossrail. It is

assumed all trains on HS2, GWML, Heathrow Express and Crossrail stop at this station

• A Through Station in the Heathrow area – this would mean a revised line of route to run via

the Heathrow station (resulting in longer journey times to Euston). The station is a ‘modelling construct’ with an assumed cross-platform interchange to GWML, Crossrail, Heathrow Express and Heathrow Airport. Again all trains on HS2, GWML, Crossrail and Heathrow Express are assumed to stop at this station. This station would also offer car parking for passengers to drive to the station.

5.4.2 Table 5.4 shows the numbers of passengers using Euston and the interchange station under each

option.

Table 5.4 - Distribution of HS2 Passengers using Interchange and Euston Stations London Interchange Passengers going to or from

Daily Demand Greater London Airport Access Other Total

No Interchange 0 0 0 0

Old Oak Common 31,000 1,000 17,000 50,000

Heathrow through 14,000 2,000 24,000 40,000

Euston Passengers going to or from Total HS2 Passenger

to London

Daily Demand Greater London Airport Access Other Total

No Interchange 113,000 1,000 20,000 134,000 134,000

Old Oak Common 84,000 0 11,000 95,000 145,000

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5.4.3 An interchange station would have a number of benefits and disbenefits:

• HS2 passengers not using the station would face a longer journey time as the train stops at the

station. This would add between 4 minutes at Old Oak Common and 9 minutes9 _{at Heathrow.}

• Some HS2 passengers travelling to/from London would gain from reduced journey times. In

particular the Crossrail links and frequency at OOC would reduce end to end journey times for several areas in West and East London.

• Passengers on GWML, Crossrail and Heathrow Express would face longer journeys into

Paddington as a result of stopping at Old Oak Common; GWML passengers would face this disbenefit for an interchange at Heathrow too.

• HS2 passengers from areas to the west and south west of London would see shorter journeys

and easier access to reach HS2 services via GWML. The interchange station means these passengers avoid the trip into Paddington and across London to reach Euston.

• Improved access for passengers travelling to Heathrow for international flights. At Old Oak

Common this is in the form of Crossrail and Heathrow Express links to the airport, while a HS2 station at Heathrow is modelled as being ‘on airport’.

• For a Heathrow station there are additional benefits for people who would access the station by

car.

5.4.4 Whether an interchange station is attractive depends on the balance of these various impacts.

The balance at an interchange station at Old Oak Common would be overall positive. Despite the significant time penalties of stopping HS2 and GWML trains at the interchange station, the benefits of improved accessibility for HS2 passengers would more than outweigh this. Overall the station increases demand on HS2 by over 7% compared to having no interchange station and delivers net benefits worth around £2bn.

5.4.5 Comparing a station at Heathrow to Old Oak Common shows a very different pattern of impacts. In

the case of Heathrow:

• There are additional disbenefits for people who use Euston. This is because the route to serve

Heathrow is longer and at lower speed (due to tunnel section). A trip to Euston would be up to 5 minutes longer than the equivalent trip via Old Oak Common.

• Heathrow is also less accessible than Old Oak Common for passengers travelling to and from

locations in Central London. The station is served by limited Crossrail services and the Piccadilly line, and is further away from Central London. Old Oak Common on the other hand has very high frequency Crossrail services with much shorter journeys into the centre of London.

9 The main HS2 report states the penalty for stopping trains at Heathrow via a through station is 7minutes whereas in this report we use a 9 minute penalty. This difference is due to late engineering work which has suggested our early estimates of the journey time were overstated by 2 minutes.

We have not in the time available re-run the model with this revised journey time, and hence the results presented in this Chapter are on the basis of a 9 minute journey time. We are conducting further analysis on Heathrow which we will publish in due course. However, we do not believe this change in journey time will substantively change our conclusions.

Chapter 5: London Interchange Station Location

• However a Heathrow station does improve journey times for passengers travelling to Heathrow,

and transferring to/from HS2 to/from locations to the west and south west of London. The station is further to the west, and therefore journey times from a Heathrow station to, say, Reading on the GWML would be significantly faster than the equivalent journey from Old Oak Common.

5.4.6 These differences are reflected in the modelled number of passengers using HS2, and the places

they are travelling to and from. With an interchange at Heathrow, the number of passengers using Euston falls by almost 7% because journey times from Euston to Birmingham and beyond would be longer on a route serving Heathrow. This reduces the attractiveness of HS2 for mode shift (whether from classic rail or car), as well as reducing the number of new trips generated by the scheme.

5.4.7 The number of passengers travelling to and from locations in Greater London using the Heathrow

station is also less than half the number at Old Oak Common since the station is far less accessible for London than Old Oak Common. The average end to end journey time for London passengers is longer using the Heathrow interchange, and this has a significant impact on the attractiveness of the station. This is partially off-set by around 6,000 more passengers using the Heathrow interchange to leave/join HS2 from locations to the west and south west of London, who have shorter journey times on the GWML. However the greater number of passengers going to locations outside London is not enough to offset the loss of passengers travelling to and from London. As a result the overall number of passengers on HS2 with a Heathrow interchange falls by over 10% compared with an HS2 with no interchange. This also has the impact of reducing revenues by some £1.3bn.

5.4.8 There are some uncertainties in the precise benefits of the station at Heathrow. Our model will

understate some of the benefits since it is designed to focus on HS2 passengers. As a result it does not model the demand or benefits of a Heathrow station for people in (say) Reading who might use the station to get to Heathrow via the GWML.

5.4.9 However there are some areas where the modelling overstates the benefits of a Heathrow station.

Firstly, as discussed in Section 5.3, the model may not accurately reflect fares for passengers choosing between direct rail routes and travelling via London. In particular the model assumes all routes have the same fare – so Bristol to Manchester costs the same regardless of whether a direct cross-country train is used or travelling via London on HS2. The latter route is likely to cost more in practice.

5.4.10 In addition the Heathrow station is designed as a ‘modelling construct’ to identify the maximum demand in each of the markets considered above. It assumes the station is located at Heathrow central terminal area (to maximise connectivity for Heathrow passengers, but also has cross-

platform connections to Crossrail and Piccadilly lines), and has a direct (cross-platform) interchange with the GWML. In practice a Heathrow station is unlikely to deliver all of these connections.

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5.4.11 Overall therefore our conclusion is that a station at Heathrow is less attractive than a station at Old Oak Common. Our modelling suggests that overall there would be significant disbenefits of a Heathrow station compared to Old Oak Common. This is because:

• A station at Heathrow would cost significantly more than the equivalent station at Old Oak

Common. This is equivalent to £2-3bn (PV, 2009 prices).

• There is a significant reduction in revenues as a result of lower patronage. This would be

equivalent to adding £1.3bn to the cost to government of HS2.

• Overall a station at Heathrow would reduce benefits to HS2 passengers by £2.6bn compared to

a station at Old Oak Common. This reflects the fact that the benefits to GWML passengers are not sufficient to offset the additional journey time penalties and longer access times for those travelling to Euston, and more generally to Greater London.

5.4.12 This suggests that a through station at Heathrow is not attractive for the purposes of HS2. Our model does not, though, have the capability to investigate the benefits of improved connectivity between the airport and passengers in the South East and South West through, for instance, improved connections to the GWML and other rail links such as Airtrack which could be delivered without the need for HS2 to serve a Heathrow station.

5.4.13 We are continuing to investigate the implications of a station in the Heathrow area to allow a greater understanding of how the impact of issues such as the over-estimation of trips from the South West, and a loop station rather than a through station may have on the business case. We will publish this work in due course, but based on our current understanding of the issues we do not expect this to change the business case substantially.

5.4.14 We also expect the conclusion to hold for a loop as well as a through station. While a loop would have the advantage of not having any journey time penalty for those on direct trains to London (i.e. not using the loop):

• Service frequencies would be substantially reduced at the Heathrow station, making it less

attractive than Old Oak Common as an interchange for passengers from Reading and other locations outside London.

• It would not have the accessibility of a station at Old Oak Common for passengers travelling to