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2.7 TIPOS DE SISTEMAS DE AIRE ACONDICIONADO
5.3.1 Reflecting our remit, we have assumed the two main objectives for a London interchange would be to:
• Provide good access for HS2 passengers to London, whilst relieving pressure at Euston.
• Provide access to Heathrow airport for HS2 passengers.
5.3.2 In addition to this, for the purposes of appraisal, we have to consider the benefits of connections to
the GWML, and to the road network that facilitate journeys to outside Greater London. The following sections take each of these markets in turn, considering the market potential as well as the
HS2 Demand Model Analysis
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Improving Access to London
5.3.3 The largest market that is forecast to use HS2 is people travelling to and from locations within the
Greater London area. London already dominates the rail market – accounting for almost 80% of trips by rail between the wider south east and the West Midlands, North West and Scotland. We forecast this trend to continue, with over 100,000 HS2 passengers travelling to and from London each day in 2033. In our central case around 80% of passengers on HS2 are travelling to and from locations in Greater London.
5.3.4 An interchange station would have different impacts on these passengers depending on where they
are travelling to or from. Some would see improved access times as a result of the interchange station, particularly those travelling to and from West London. However those who do not use the interchange station will experience journeys that are 4 minutes longer as a result of stopping at Old Oak Common and 9 minutes longer at Heathrow – reflecting the longer route needed to serve a Heathrow station.
Table 5.3a - Number of HS2 Passengers Travelling to and from Greater London at Different HS2 Station Locations
Daily Demand Interchange Station Euston Total
HS2 with no London Interchange 0 113,000 113,000
HS2 with OOC 31,000 84,000 115,000
HS2 with LHR Through 14,000 79,000 93,000
Note: This only includes HS2 trips whose ultimate origin or destination is in Greater London
5.3.5 Table 5.3a shows how many passengers using HS2 are accessing Greater London, and which HS2
station these passengers use. It suggests that a station at Old Oak Common would increase the total number of passengers travelling to and from London on HS2 compared to having no interchange. This means that the benefits of improved accessibility would more than outweigh the costs of slower journeys for those travelling on to Euston.
5.3.6 A Heathrow station on the other hand would reduce the number of passengers on HS2 travelling
to and from London. This reflects the additional time penalties imposed on passengers travelling to Euston – reducing demand at the Euston station – as well as the longer journey times on public transport between a Heathrow station and many locations in Central London.
Relieving Dispersal at Euston
5.3.7 Chapter 4 has outlined the pressures on the Underground network at Euston, both with and without
HS2. It also outlines the impact of HS2 at Euston in our central case – including Old Oak Common. We consider here further the role of the interchange in relieving pressure at Euston.
Chapter 5: London Interchange Station Location
Table 5.3b - Number of HS2 passengers using Euston Station
Daily Demand HS2 Passenger arriving and departing Euston
HS2 with no London Interchange 134,000
HS2 with OOC 95,000
HS2 with LHR Through 88,000
Note: This data represents all HS2 trips passing through Euston.
5.3.8 Table 5.3b shows the number of HS2 passengers arriving at and departing from Euston each day
under each scenario. The difference with Table 5.3a is that this now includes trips which may start or end outside London, but travel via Euston. In addition to the HS2 passengers using Euston, there are approximately 40-45,000 passengers on the residual long distance classic rail services using Euston.
5.3.9 In our central case (including Old Oak Common) this represents an increase of 14,000 passengers
through the day compared to no HS2 (6,000 passengers during the three morning peak hours). The net effect of this would be to increase passengers and crowding on London Underground lines running through Euston by around 3% during the morning peak.
5.3.10 Without a London interchange station, the number of passengers at Euston and on the Underground network would be increased. Compared to our central case (which includes Old Oak Common), there would an additional 35,000-40,000 HS2 passengers per day using Euston and an additional 11,000 using the underground in the am three hour peak. Overall this would almost quadruple the impact of HS2 on the underground network at Euston. However even this significant growth would only represent an increase in the level of crowding on the Underground at Euston of just 5%, since Euston passengers make up a relatively small proportion of the total number of passengers on the Underground network at this point.
5.3.11 A station at Heathrow would serve to reduce the number of passengers arriving or departing at Euston up to 46,000 passengers per day. However it would do so almost entirely as a result of longer journey times discouraging passengers using HS2 to travel to and from London, rather than improving the dispersal of London passengers.
Access to Heathrow
5.3.12 The potential market for trips on HS2 accessing Heathrow comes from three sources:
• Surface access trips to and from Heathrow to access international flights;
• Air trips to access international flights (interlining);
• Potential for Heathrow to gain market share from competitor airports as a result of improved
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5.3.13 This does not include domestic air passengers as these people are treated as either accessing London, or other locations in the UK (both of which are considered separately).
5.3.14 Our modelling is designed to cover the market potential of a full high speed network, serving both the North East and North West, as well as Scotland. Our data suggests that there are around 8,000 surface access trips per day in 2007/8 (2.5m trips per year) to and from Heathrow that might be captured by such a network. These trips start and finish from an area north of Birmingham, including Manchester and Glasgow, but also places like Newcastle and Edinburgh.
5.3.15 In addition to this there are around 4,000 interlining or air transfer trips made per day (1.2m trips per year) by air between Heathrow and Glasgow and Manchester airports in 2008. A further 3,000 interlining trips per day (800,000 trips per year) come from Newcastle and Edinburgh which would be covered by a wider network. Trips from Glasgow and Manchester airports form part of the potential market for access to Heathrow with just HS2, while Newcastle and Edinburgh more likely to be captured by a wider high speed network
5.3.16 A further 5,000 trips per day start or finish in an area in the region of an intermediate station. However these are unlikely to be a potential market given that the core HS2 proposition does not include an intermediate station.
5.3.17 This suggests that based on 2007/8 data, the market potential for existing trips that access Heathrow from the areas served by a full high speed network is around 15,000 trips per day (4.5m trips per year). This compares to around 145,000 trips per day forecast to use HS2 to and from London in 2033, and 220,000 that would use a full High Speed Network (see chapter 11).
5.3.18 In practice HS2 will not be able to capture all of this potential demand. The service on the first leg of HS2 will only provide journey time benefits to the North West and Glasgow. A large area of the North East and Scotland – which is included in the market potential above – would not benefit from the scheme. As a result the number of passengers that could use HS2 to travel to and from Heathrow is likely to be much lower.
5.3.19 Our model suggests a station at Heathrow would deliver the greatest demand for access to Heathrow, with around 2,000 passengers per day using HS2 to access the airport for international flights. This means that even a station at Heathrow which is deliberately modelled to maximise the attractiveness for airport passengers would represent less than 2% of the traffic on HS2.
5.3.20 This modelling assumes that HS2 will not increase the total number of passengers accessing Heathrow. It is possible that by boosting accessibility to Heathrow, HS2 will make Heathrow more competitive with other UK and European airports and therefore change the distribution or number of passengers to the airport. It is difficult to assess the size of the potential for this shift. BAA in its submission to HS2 suggested there were around 13,000 trips per day (4m trips per year) from UK regional airports to European airports for onward connections to international flights. This is a potential market that could transfer to Heathrow if HS2 significantly improved access to the airport.
Chapter 5: London Interchange Station Location
In addition, data from the CAA suggests that the market from the West Midlands and beyond for Gatwick and Stansted combined is around 12,000 trips per day (3.7m trips per year).
5.3.21 If we include both of these, then the potential market to Heathrow would amount to around 43,000 trips per day (12.8m trips per year). Even if HS2 were to capture all of these trips, it would represent around 20% of trips on HS2 – comparable to the number of passengers accessing UK destinations outside London, but only around one third of the number of passengers travelling to and from London – HS2’s core market. In practice it is unlikely HS2 would deliver such a significant change, since it does not directly serve large parts of the markets considered (e.g. Newcastle and the North East). A wider high speed network may capture a higher proportion of this market, but even then it would be heavily dependent on the competitive responses of airlines and airport operators both within the UK and Europe.
Trips to and from Locations Outside of London
5.3.22 HS2 passengers would have a variety of different origins and destinations. We have already seen that the majority of passengers would travel to and from the Greater London area. However a significant number (almost 20%) would be travelling to and from locations outside of London. An interchange station would enhance access for these passengers. For example someone travelling between Reading and Manchester would have a journey of just under three and a half hours. With HS2 and an Old Oak Common interchange this could fall to just over two hours with one interchange. This is likely to be a more attractive proposition, particularly in the absence of premium fares.
5.3.23 However the design of the HS2 model raises two issues related to the size of this market. In particular it assumes all fares between different places in the country are the same regardless of the route taken. In practice the fare paid by passengers from places like Bristol and the South West, using the GWML and then HS2 to reach Manchester and beyond is likely to be higher than the equivalent Cross County trip. This difference in fare would act to discourage passengers from using HS2, but is not taken into account by our modelling. There is also significant crowding on Cross County routes by 2033, which increases the propensity of passengers to switch to using HS2. 5.3.24 As a result the flow of passengers using HS2 from locations in the South West is probably
overstated. This is likely to be greater at a Heathrow station than at Old Oak Common. Heathrow, being further west, reduces the journey time of passengers in Bristol still further and – in line with the modelling assumptions – would encourage even more trips to and from these areas. Figure 5.3 shows the difference in the destinations of passengers using a Heathrow station compared to Old Oak Common. So a Heathrow station increases the number of HS2 trips to Reading and places close to London (green areas), but it also increases the number of HS2 trips to more distant locations, including Bristol and the South West. These are the areas that are most likely to be over-stated by the model.
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Figure 5.3 - Change in Number of Passengers on HS2 by Destination when Using a Heathrow Station Compared to Old Oak Common
5.3.25 We can also see from this map the negative impact that a Heathrow station has on trips to inner London, which now suffer from an increased journey time as a result of the longer route needed to serve Heathrow.
Chapter 5: London Interchange Station Location