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Exhibit 11.1 shows an upward sloping support line. It is made by con-necting at least two reaction lows. This line demonstrates that buyers are more aggressive than sellers since demand is stepping in at higher lows.

This line is indicative of a market that is trending higher. Exhibit 11.2 shows a downward sloping resistance line. It is derived by joining at least two reaction highs. It shows that sellers are more aggressive than buyers as evidenced by the sellers willingness to sell at lower highs. This reflects a market that is trending lower.

The potency of a support or resistance line depends on the number of times the line has been successfully tested, the amount of volume at each test, and the time the line has been in force. Exhibit 11.3 has no candlestick indicators that are worth illustrating. It does represent one of the major advantages of candlesticks, though. Whatever you can do with a bar chart, you can do with a candlestick chart. Here we see how a basic

185

Upward Sloping

head and shoulders neckline could be drawn on the candlestick chart just as easily as with the bar chart. However, as we will see in the rest of this chapter, the candlesticks provide added depth to trendline anal-ysis.

Exhibit 11.4 illustrates that the lows in late March (near $173) formed a support area that was successfully tested in late April. This successful April test of support had an extra bullish kicker thanks to the candle-sticks. Specifically, the three sessions on April 20 to 22 formed a bullish morning star pattern.

1 3 : 5 1 CLNO 60 MINUTE BftR © 1?8? CQS INC.

2000

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1800

•TICKS= 35 CLNO 60 MINUTE TICK

300 200 100

4/30 5/ 7 5/14 5/21

EXHIBIT 11.3. Crude Oil—July 1990, Intra-day (Trendlines on Candlestick Charts)

EXHIBIT 11.4. CBS—1990, Daily (Support Line with Candlesticks)

Exhibit 11.5 has a wealth of information about using trendlines with candlestick indicators. That includes:

1. The emergence of support line 1 (late January—early February) shows that the two lows on January 29 and 31 were the initial two points of this line. A third test of this line of February 7 was also a bullish ham-mer. The combination of these two factors gave a bottom reversal sig-nal. For those who bought at this area, the hammer's low could be used as a protective stop out level.

2. The emergence of support line 2 (mid-January-early March) is more important than support line 1 since it was in effect longer. On March 2, the third test of this line was made by way of a bullish hammer.

Since the major trend was up (as shown by the upward sloping sup-port line 2), the bullish hammer and the successful test of supsup-port conformed to a buy signal for March 2. Protective sell stops could be positioned under the hammer's low or under the upward sloping support line 2. A puncture of this support line would be a warning that the prior uptrend had stalled. The harami gave the first inkling of trouble.

This example illuminates the importance of stops. As discussed pre-viously, there were numerous reasons to believe that the market was going higher when it tested support line 2 via a hammer. Yet, the

mar-EXHIBIT 11.5. Crude Oil—June 1990, Daily (Support Line with Candlesticks)

ket pulled back. You should be confident when the trade is but always take into account doubt and uncertainty. One of the most impor-tant concepts in trading—especially futures, is risk control. The use of stops is synonymous to risk control.

Exhibit 11.6 shows dark-cloud covers 1 and 2 produced a resistance line. Dark-cloud cover 3 intersected at this resistance line and thus con-firmed this line's importance as a supply area. Exhibit 11.7 shows that there was a rally (not shown) that stopped at A. This area provided a preliminary resistance area at .6419. A long-legged doji arose at B. The fact that this doji also surfaced near the resistance level set by A was a reason to be cautious. Points A and B gave the first two points of a resis-tance line. Traders who use hourly charts would thus look for failed ral-lies near this line to take appropriate action—especially if they got a confirmatory bearish candlestick indicator. At there was a long-legged doji (like the one at B) near the resistance line. The market then backed off. At D, the white candlestick with a long upper shadow was a shoot-ing star. It failed at the resistance line. This white candlestick was imme-diately followed by a black candlestick that engulfed it. These two candles constituted a bearish engulfing pattern.

Exhibit 11.8 shows two engulfing patterns where pattern 1 was a

ment approach to trading. Defining risk means using protective stops to help protect against unanticipated adverse price movements. If stops are not used, the analyst is not taking advantage of one of the most powerful aspects of technical analysis.

A stop should be placed at the time of the original trade; this is when one is most objective. Stay in the position only if the market performs according to expectations. If subsequent price action either contradicts or fails to confirm these expectations, it is time to exit. If the market moves opposite to the chosen position you may think, "why bother with a stop—it is just a short-term move against me." Thus you stubbornly stay with the position in the hope the market will turn in your direction.

Remember two facts:

1. all long-term trends begin as short-term moves; and

2. there is no room for hope in the market. The market goes its own way without regard to you or your position.

The market does not care whether you own it or not. The one thing worse than being wrong is staying wrong. Lose your opinion, not your money. Be proud of the ability to catch mistakes early. Getting stopped out concedes a mistake. People hate to admit mistakes since pride and prestige get involved. Good traders will not hold views too firmly. It has been said that famous private investor Warren Buffet has two rules:

1. capital preservation; and 2. don't forget rule 1.

Stops are synonymous with rule 1. You have limited resources. These resources should be maximized, or at a minimum, preserved. If you are in a market that has moved against your position, it is time to exit and find a better opportunity. Think of a stop as a cost of doing business.

Since so much of the Japanese candlestick terminology is grounded on military terminology, we will look at stops in this context as well. Each trade you make is a battle. And you will have to do what even the great-est generals have to do—make temporary, tactical retreats. A general's goal is to preserve troops and munitions. Yours is to save capital and equanimity. Sometimes you must lose a few battles to win the war. The Japanese have a saying, "a hook's well lost to catch a salmon." If you are stopped out, think of it as you would a lost hook. Maybe with the next hook you will catch your prize.

EXHIBIT 11.6. Platinum—Monthly (Resistance Line with Candlesticks)

EXHIBIT 11.7. Japanese Yen—June, 1990 Intra-day (Resistance Line with Candlesticks)