• No se han encontrado resultados

Rendimiento Académico

In document CAPITULO II MARCO TEÓRICO. (página 33-37)

This was based on personal interviews with sampled members of selected

communities through field surveys. The procedure is summarised in the following

steps and described in the following paragraphs. ▪ Select Study Areas

▪ Define sample size

▪ Conduct Pre Interviews through field survey to select elements of social benefits and cost at sub criteria level based on a rating scale of 1 to 4.

▪ Conduct pairwise comparison of elements at criteria levels 1 and 2 and the sub criteria level 3 on a scale of 1-9 through field surveys.

1. Selection of Study Areas: The selection of the study locations involved first

the selection of two districts and then the selection of two communities from within

each district. The choice of districts was based on an inherent dimension of poverty

status. There are ten regions in Ghana which are sub divided into 145, Metropolitan,

Municipal and District Assemblies. This study was conducted in two districts rated as

poor and non poor by the poverty stratification of the Ministry of Local Government

(MLG). This was to meet the objective functions of ensuring both economic

efficiency and social equity. The selected districts were the Dangme East District and

the Ga West Municipal Assembly. The choice of district was also based on

accessibility to all roads types. This was to provide a balanced view on the benefits

and costs of road maintenance for all road types. The location of selected districts is

indicated in Appendix 5.14. A brief profile of the selected districts and communities

is described in the following paragraphs.

(i) Profile of the Dangme East District: The Dangme East is located in the

eastern part of the Greater Accra Region of the south eastern part of Ghana. It

covers a total land area of about 909 sq km with a density of 102.4 persons.

(Ghana, Population Census, 2001). The major occupation is farming and it is

rated as a poor district lacking in basic amenities such as good drinking water,

health and educational facilities by the social investment f of Ghana und (SIF).

The total length of the road network in the district is about 172 km, made up

of primary road (28km), secondary roads (20.2 km), and feeder roads

(123.3km). About 70 percent of the roads network, especially the feeder roads,

is in very poor condition with most them becoming unmotorable during the

wet season, (DFR Inventory Data, 2004). The major occupation is farming,

fishing and salt mining. The main problems associated with the transport are;

long waiting and long travel times due to the poor condition of the roads.

(ii) Profile of the Ga West Municipal: The Ga West Municipal is the second

largest of the six Municipalities & Districts in the Greater Accra Region. It is

rated as a non poor district. It has close proximity to Accra, the national capital

and Tema which a port city with the country’s largest harbour and an

industrial hub. This enables the district to have access to utility services and

employment opportunities. It also serves as a satellite sub urban settlement for

city dwellers. It has good access to educational, health and other social

infrastructure. It is accessed by trans national highways such as the Achimota-

Nsawam and Mallam Junction-Winneba Highways.

(iii) Selected Communities: The communities in which the studies were conducted

were also selected from the two districts. The choice of a community was

determined on the basis of its ability to access all road types and the condition

of the road leading to the community. A total of four communities were

selected from the two districts with two communities selected per each district

and one of the communities per district was with good access and the other

was with poor access. The objective was to obtain a balanced perspective from

each category. Amasaman the district capital with good access and Aiyikai

Doblo which is about 25km from the district capital with poor access were

selected from the Ga West Municipal Assembly. Sege an urban centre with

good access and Toflokpo a 14km village with poor access were selected from

the Dangbe East district. The location of the selected districts and the

communities are given in Appendix 5.14.

2. Sampling Design

Representative samples of community members were selected for interviews within

in each community. The sample frame was defined as the active population of each

district. This was obtained from the Ghana population census (2001). The population

was projected to the year 2004 using Equation 5.3 and the results are as summarised

in Table 5.23.

Pt = po (1+r)t Equation 5.3

Po = The present population

Pt = The population at the end of the planned period

r = the growth rate

t = the time period

Table 5.23: Projected Population by District Name of District 2000 Population Growth Rate ® in Percentage Time Period 1+r (1+r)t Projected Population (2204) (n) Dangbe East 93,112 0.023 4 1.023 1.10 101,978.4 Ga West 96,809 0.021 4 1.021 1.09 105,2007

The sample size for the selection of the representative population for the surveys was

developed on the basis of the following formula by Cochran, W.G (1963):

2

)

(

1

N

μ

N

+

n = Equation 5.4 where; 118

N = Total Population for the two districts;

µ = Margin of error allowed in the sample size and

n = Estimated Sample Size

The sample size for each district was further reduced by the proportion of children

within the age cohort of ≤16 years to determine the adult population eligible for the

survey. The total sample size was estimated to be 213.5 for the two districts. Thus an

average of 50 households was interviewed in each community. Different categories of

people were randomly selected for questionnaire administration by field enumerators.

The detail of the estimates on the sample size is presented in Table 5.24.

Table 5.24: Estimation of Sample Size Total Population of Selected Districts (N) µ µ2 N(µ2) 1+ N(µ2) 2 ) ( 1 N

μ

N + 207,179.1 0.05 0.0025 517.9 518.9 399.23 Estimated Sample Size Percentage of Children Adjusted Sample size Proportionate Allocation to Dangbe East (101,978.40/207,179) 48 101.5 = 195.34 Proportionate Allocation to Ga West (105,200/207,179) 45 111.9 = 203.5 Total Sample Size 213.5

3. Pre- Interviews

Sudman (1976) suggests that a minimum of 100 elements is needed for each major

group or subgroup in the sample and for each minor subgroup, a sample of 20 to 50

elements is necessary. Therefore an initial survey was conducted for the identification

of the elements of the sub criteria using the 50 member sample size per each

community. It involved interviews with passengers, transport operators and household

members in the selected communities. Each community provided a list of social

benefits and costs associated with road maintenance. The elements identified were

ranked by order of importance over a scale of 1 to 4 by the respondents. The highest

ranked social benefit or cost was awarded the highest score of 4, the next highest was

awarded 3 points, the third highest was awarded 2 points and the lowest was awarded

1 point. Elements which scored below 1 were eliminated from further analysis. This is

consistent with the theory of elimination by choice by Tversky, (1979). The types of

social benefits defined at the community level on the elements at the sub criteria level

3 included increased access to employment, increased access to health, increased

access to education and information as well as improved social interaction. The

ranked distribution of social costs at the community level for both good and bad roads

is presented in Table 5.25.

Table 5.25: Social Benefit Ranking at Sub Criterion Level (Community Level) Ga East Municipal Dangbme East

District

Combined Social benefit Types

Amasaman (Good Access) Aikai Doblo (Poor Access) Sege Toflokpo (Poor Access) Score Overall Ranking (Good Access)

Increased access N/A √ (1) √ (3) √ (1) 14 2 to Health facilities Creation of employment √ (1) √ (1) √ (1) √ (1) 16 1 opportunities Increased Access to Education √ (4) N/A √ (1) √ (1) 9 3 Increased Access to Information

N/A N/A √ (2) N/A 3 5

Increased Social Interaction √ (4) √ (2) √ (2) N/A 7 4

▪ Increased Access to Employment: All the communities ranked access to employment as the highest social benefit from road maintenance interventions.

This was defined in terms of employment from construction works, access to 120

other employment opportunities which hitherto were non existent in the

communities as well as increased outputs from existing employment activities. ▪ Increased Access to Health Facilities: This was ranked as the second highest

social benefit at the community level. Generally the communities with poor

access rated this benefit higher than those with good access.

▪ Increased Access to Educational Facilities: This was considered to be important in both communities with good and bad access mostly in relation to

higher levels of educational facilities which are non existent in low populated

communities and for which students travel outside their communities to

access.

▪ Increased Social Interaction: The ability to meet social obligation through interactions was considered to be the next important social benefit from road

maintenance by most communities especially those communities with

improved access. This is due to the ability to attend essential social functions

and to meet social obligation.

▪ Increased access to information: This was eliminated since it is considered to be a function of social interaction. This satisfies Saaty’s (1990), requirement

to include enough relevant detail to represent a criteria in AHP analysis.

The types of social costs associated with road maintenance expressed at the

community level included increased traffic accidents, pollution, negative cultural

practices, increased spread of HIV and other diseases as well as increased crime and

insecurity. The summary is provided in table 5.26.

Table 5.26: Social Costs Ranking at Sub Criterion Level (Community Level)

Ga East Municipal Dangbme East District Combined Social Costs Amasaman (Good Access) Aikai Doblo (Poor Access) Sege Toflokpo (Poor Access) Score Overall Ranking (Good Access) Increased road accidents √ (1) N/A √ (1) √ (2) 11 1 Increased insecurity and √ (1) N/A √ (4) N/A 5 5 Crime

Increase in diseases √ (2) √(4) √(3) N/A 6 4 (HIV/AIDS)

Water and dust pollution

N/A √ (1) √ (2) √(4) 8 2

Negative cultural influence

√ (1) N/A) √ (2 √(3) 7 3

▪ Increased Accidents: Increased traffic accidents was considered to be the most important social cost related to road maintenance interventions especially for

communities with good access. This is attributed to the high rate of accidents

associated with improved roads due to over speeding from reduced road

roughness.

▪ Pollution: Dust and water pollution was considered to be the next highest social cost to all communities. This is due to the fact that most communities

are served by unpaved feeder roads which make them susceptible to dust

pollution. The problem is also identified with pollution during construction

works especially on urban and trunk roads.

▪ Negative Social Practices and Spread of HIV and AIDS: These are associated with exposure and increased interaction with others outside the communities

due to increased in and out migration related to road maintenance.

▪ Insecurity and crime was considered to be a part of the exposure to negative cultural practices so was eliminated from the analysis

4. Pairwise Ranking by Community Surveys

A sample of 20 household members per each community who participated in the pre

interviews were selected for the pairwise comparison of the elements set at the criteria

levels 1, 2 and sub criteria level 3. The pairwise comparison involved a rating of each

criterion or sub criterion according to their relative importance over the other. That is

the following comparisons were made at each criteria level.

(i) Criteria Level 1: Economic benefits were compared with social benefits

(ii) Criteria Level 2: Economic benefits were compared to economic costs.

However the elements of these parameters were obtained from HDM-4

outputs on NPV which represented economic benefit and road maintenance

cost which represented economic cost.

(iii) Criteria Level 2: Social benefits were compared with social Costs.

(iv) Sub Criteria Level 3: Each element of social benefit was compared with each

other and each element of social cost was compared with the other.

The comparison was done on the basis of a verbal scale of preference of one factor for

the other on a numerical judgment scale of 1 and 9. The relative weightings scale is

presented in Table 5.27. A value of 1 was assigned if both criteria were equally

important, and a value of 9 if the criterion being compared was clearly more

important than the other

Table 5.27 Relative Weightings for the Criteria

Intensity of importance Definition

1 Equally preferred

2 Equal to moderately preferred 3 Moderately preferred

4 Moderately to strongly preferred 5 Strongly preferred

6 Strongly to very strongly preferred 7 Very strongly preferred

8 Very strongly to extremely preferred 9 Extremely preferred

In document CAPITULO II MARCO TEÓRICO. (página 33-37)

Documento similar