RIESGOS NATURALES

The renewable energy consumed in Luxembourg increased from 40.1 ktoe (1.68 PJ) in 2005 to 126.9 ktoe (5.3 PJ) in 2011 and 132.7 ktoe (5.56 PJ) in 2012. The renewable energy consumed in Luxembourg is expected to further increase to 401.1 ktoe (16.8 PJ) until 2020 (Figure 15-1).

Figure 15-1. RES total in Luxembourg in 2012 and the expected growth to 2020 target

Renewable energy consumed in transport sector made the most significant progress from year 2005. It experienced a very fast increase up to 2011 with 364.3% per annum in average (+24.3 ktoe) but the additional renewable energy in 2012 was only 1 ktoe (+2.1%). This increase was fast enough to surpass the expected NREAP levels for both 2011 and 2012: 81.8% (+21.6 ktoe) over in 2011 and 28.6% (+10.9 ktoe) over in 2012.

Heating/cooling sector in Luxembourg experienced an increase by 29.2% per annum in average between 2005 and 2011 reaching 53.9 ktoe (2.26 PJ) increasing further with 6.5% (+3.5 ktoe) in 2012. This development was fast enough to exceed the expected NREAP levels in both 2011 and 2012: 93.9% (+26.1 ktoe) over in 2011 and 70.8% (+23.8 ktoe) over in 2012.

Electricity sector experienced a use of renewable energy in 2011 equal to 25 ktoe which increased further in 2012 with 5.2% (+1.3 ktoe). Nevertheless this development was enough to exceed only the expected NREAP level for year 2011 (+3.2% or +0.77 ktoe) but missing it in 2012 with 1.3% (-3.35 ktoe).

The main progress from 2012 to 2020 is expected in the use of renewable energy in transport sector (45.2% per annum in average) followed by electricity sector (19.4% per annum in average) and heating/cooling sector (11% per annum in average).

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More than half of 2011-2012 additional renewable energy in Luxembourg came from biofuels

Figure 15-2. RES deployment in Luxembourg: projected growth and actual progress until 2020.

Figure 15-3. Deviation from NREAP in the RES consumption in Luxembourg in 2012.

15.2 Sources of renewable energy

Biomass was the main renewable energy source in Luxembourg with a 47.7% contribution in renewable energy mix in 2012, followed by biofuels with 36%, hydropower with 6.8%, wind with 4.9%, solar with 3.8% and heat pumps with 0.9%.

Figure 15-4. Contribution of renewable energy sources in Luxembourg: actual and projected in 2020

Figure 15-5. Deviation from NREAP in the contribution of renewable sources in Luxembourg in 2012

Biofuels use in transport sector in Luxembourg made the fastest progress between 2005 and 2012 with 657% per annum in average reaching 47

ktoe (2.0 PJ) in 2012.This development was faster than what was planned in the NREAP exceeding the respective ecpected uses in both years: 90.1% (+21.8 ktoe) more in 2011 and 31.7% (+11.3ktoe) more in 2012.

Biomass use for electricity and heat consumption in Luxembourg increased in 2011 with +36.8 ktoe (26.5% per annum in average) from 23.2 ktoe (0.97 PJ) in 2005. It increased further between 2011 and 2012 with 3.95% (+2.37 ktoe). This development was enough to surpass the expected NREAP uses in both 2011 and 2012: 84.4% (+27.4 ktoe) more in 2011 and 55.3% (+22.2 ktoe) more in 2012.

The development of solar technology was faster than what was expected according to the NREAP in both 2011 and 2012. It reached in 2011 the amount of 3.24 ktoe (0.14 PJ) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2005 2011p 2011a 2012p 2012a 2015 2020 kt o e

RES T RES E RES H/C

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0 50 100 150 200 250 H ydr o G eo the rm al So lar M ar in e W ind H eat p um ps B io m as s B io fue ls kt o e 2005 2011 2012 2020 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 %

Hydropower Geothermal Solar Marine Wind Heat pumps Biomass Biofuels

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increasing then further with 53.5% (+1.73 ktoe) in 2012 over 1.72 ktoe (0.07 PJ) in the baseline year. These values are over the expected levels respectively by 23.5% (+0.62 ktoe) and 38.2% (+1.37 ktoe).

In 2020, the contribution of biofuels is expected to cover 55.2% of total renewable energy mix planned for this year while the contribution of biomass is expected to decrease to 28.6%. The contribution of other renewable energy sources will be as following: wind 5.3%, heat pumps 4.3%, solar 3.9% and hydropower 2.7%.

15.3 Renewable energy share

The overall renewable energy contribution in Gross Final Energy Consumption in Luxembourg reached 2.87% in 2011 and 3.13% in 2012. Comparing with the expected shares for 2011 and 2012 the overall share of RES was under by 0.03% points in year 2011 and over by 0.23% points in 2012. The 2020 target that Luxembourg has to reach for the overall RES share is 11.0%.

Figure 15-6. Overall RES share in Luxembourg, 2011-12

Renewable energy share in heating/cooling sector made the main progress between 2005 and 2012 increasing with 3.29% points from 1.7% in baseline year. This development was faster than what was expected according to the NREAP exceeding the expected shares in both years: 2.5% points over in 2011 and 2.29% points over in 2012.

The share of renewable energy in transport sector reached 2.06% in 2011 increasing then with 0.57% points in 2012. Comparing with expected NREAP shares the current

In 2009 Luxembourg already exceeded the 2010 NREAP planned overall RES share meeting also the overall expected shares for 2011 and 2012 and the indicative RES trajectory for 2011/2012. In 2011 the overall RES share in Luxembourg slightly decreased missing the planned share for that year. Nevertheless in 2012 Luxembourg again exceeded the NREAP overall RES share for this year by 0.2% points. Although RES share remains above both the minimum trajectory and the NREAP targets, based on data reported in 2011 and 2012 Luxembourg still has to achieve a significant increase in overall RES share in its Gross Final Energy Consumption in order to reach the 2020 targets

2011 2012 2020

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12%

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72.3% of additional renewable electricity installed capcity in Luxembourg between 2011 and 2012 was provided by photovoltaic

development of renewable energy in this sector was over by 0.8% points in 2011 and 0.41% points over in 2012.

In electricity sector the share of renewable energy increased with +1.9% points in 2011 but only with +0.6% points more in 2012. This development was slower than what was expected missing the expected shares by 0.33% points in 2011 and 0.76% points in 2012.

Major increase from year 2012 until 2020 is expected to happen in transport sector (+7.81% points) followed by electricity sector (+7.16% points) and heating/cooling sector (+3.51% points).

15.4 Renewable electricity

15.4.1 Installed capacity The renewable energy installed capacity in Luxembourg increased with 6.2% per annum in average between 2005 and 2011 reaching 140 MW and further more in 2012 with 33.6% (+47 MW). The development of renewable energy installed caappcxity in Luxembourg was faster than what was planned in the NREAP being over the respective expected capacities in both 2011 and 2012: 16.7% (+20 MW) over in 2011 and 33.6% (+36 MW) over in 2012.

In 2012 solar technology covered 40.1% of total renewable energy installed capacity in Luxembourg followed by windpower with 31%, hydropower with 18.2% and biomass with 10.7%.

Figure 15-7. RES capacity deployment and progress until 2020 in Luxembourg.

Figure 15-8. Deviation from NREAP in the RES installed capacity in Luxembourg in 2012.

Solar photovoltaic increased its capacity between 2005 and 2011 with 70.8% (+17 MW) reaching 41 MW. It had then the fastest

development during period 2011-12 with 82.9% (+34 MW). This development was faster then what was projected in the NREAP exceeding the expected capacities in both 2011 and 2012: 51.9% (+14 MW) over in 2011 and 92.3% (+36 MW) over in 2012.

Wind capacity also increased fast during 2011-12 time span with 28.9% (+13 MW) from 45 MW reached in 2011. Comparing with NREAP capacities for 2011 and 2012 this technology 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Hydro Geothermal Solar Marine Wind Biomass

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developed faster than planned being over the respective expected capacities with 12.5% (+5 MW) and 7.4% (+4 MW).

Biomass capacity reached in 2011 the amount of 20 MW remaining then in this level even in 2012. Nevertheless this capacity was found to be higher than the expected capacity for year 2011 with 33.3% (+ 5MW) and to meet the expected capacity for year 2012.

Even than an increase was planned in hydropower capacity during period 2005-2011 this technology didn't change from the baseline level of 34 MW remaining unchanged even in year 2012. The deviation from the expected capacities was equal in both years with 10.5% (- 4 MW).

In 2020 wind power is expected to have the main contribution in renewable installed capacities in Luxembourg with 38% followed by solar photovoltaic with 32%, biomass with 17% and hydropower with 13%.

15.4.2 Consumption Renewable electricity consumption in Luxembourg amounted to 291 GWh (1 PJ) in 2011 and 306 GWh (1.1 PJ) in 2012 from 214.3 GWh (0.8 PJ) in 2005. Nevertheless the renewable electricity consumption in Luxembourg was over the NREAP planned value only in year 2011 exceeding it with 3.2% (+9 GWh) missing then the 2012 expected consumption by 11.3% (- 39 GWh). In 2020 the renewable electricity consumption in Luxembourg is expected to amount to 781 GWh (2.8 PJ).

In 2012 hydropower provided 33.7% of total renewable electricity consumption in Luxembourg followed by biomass with 29.7%, wind power with 24.2% and solar photovoltaic with 12.4%.

The development of renewable energy from hydropower experienced an increase by 0.7% per annum in average (+4.9 GWh) between 2005 and 2012 reaching 103 GWh (0.37 PJ). A very slightly increase (+0.98% or 1 GWh) took place during 2011-12 period. This development was slower that what was planned according to the NREAP missing the expected levels in both 2011 and 2012: 3.77% (-4 Gwh) under in 2011 and 2.8% (-3 GWh) under in 2012.

Figure 15-9. Relative increase/decrease of RES electricity sources in Luxembourg, 2011-12

Figure 15-10. Deviation from NREAP in the RES electricity consumption in Luxembourg in 2012. -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 %

Hydro Geothermal Solar Marine Wind Biomass -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 %

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Almost 50% of additional renewable electricity consumption in Luxembourg between 2011 and 2012 came from biomass.

Biomass had the fastest increase with 108.2% (+49.9 GWh) between 2005 and 2011 reaching 96 GWh. This development was

enough to exceed the expected renewable electricity consumption for year 2011 with 12.9% (+11 GWh). Nevertheless a decrease by 5.2% (-5 GWh) in renewable electricity consumption from this source took place between 2011 and 2012 putting this

consumption 18.8% (-21 GWh) under the expected NREAP level for this year.

Renewable electricity from wind power increased by 14.6% between 2005 and 2011 reaching 67 GWh (0.2 PJ) and further more in 2012 with 10.45% (+7 GWh). Nevertheless this development was not faster than the expected NREAP development for both 2011 and 2012: 5.6% (-4 GWh) under in 2011 and 24.5% (-24 GWh) under in 2012.

Solar photovoltaic increased with 20.3% during period 2005-2012 over 17.7 GWh in the baseline year. Renewable electricity consumption from this technology increased further in 2012 with 46.15% (+12 GWh). These increases were hagher than what was planned in the NREAP for both 2011 and 2012: 30% (+6 GWh) higher in 2011 and 31% (+9 GWh) higher in 2012.

15.5 Renewable energy in heating & cooling

The use of renewable energy in heating and cooling in Luxembourg increased by +34.3 ktoe (+175%) during 2005-2011 and furthermore with +3.5 ktoe (+6.5%) in 2012. This increase was faster that the projected NREAP development being over by 93.9% (+26.1 ktoe) in 2011 and 70.3% (+23.7 ktoe) in 2012. The heat consumption from renewable energy sources is expected to reach 107.9 ktoe (4.5 PJ) in 2020.

Figure 15-11. Relative increase/decrease of RES heating/cooling sources in Luxembourg, 2011-12.

Figure 15-12. Deviation from NREAP in the RES heat consumption in Luxembourg in 2012.

In 2012 biomass contributed with almost 95% in the total heat consumption in Luxembourg and the rest was solar thermal (3.0%) and heat pumps (2.1%).

Heat pumps technology had the fatsest increase in relative terms (+500%) between 2005 and 2011, in absolute terms only +1.0 ktoe, remaining then unchanged till 2012. Nevertheless thisdevelopment was not as fast as planned in the NREAP being under the 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 %

Geothermal Solar Biomass Heat pumps -5

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respective expected heat consumptions in both 2011 and 2012: 29.4% (-0.5 ktoe) under in 2011 and 42.9% (-0.9 ktoe) under in 2012.

Solar thermal developed also fast between 2005 and 2011 with +400% (+0.8 ktoe) and furthermore in 2012 with +70% (+0.7 ktoe). This development was fatster than what was planned in the NREAP exceeding the respective heat consumptions in both years: 11.1% (+0.1 ktoe) over in 2011 and 54.5% (+0.6 ktoe) over in 2012.

Biomass use for heat consumption in Luxembourg increased with 28.2% per annum in average (+32.5 ktoe) between 2005 and 2011 and furthermore in 2012 with 5.4% (+2.8 ktoe). Comparing with NREAP development the use of biomass for heat was higher than the respective expected uses in both years: 105.2% (+26.5 ktoe) higher in 2011 and 78.7% (+24 ktoe) higher in 2012.

In 2020 the contributions of heat pumps and solar thermal are expected to be increased respectively to 15.7% and 7.5% while the contribution of biomass will decrease up to 76.8%.

15.6 Renewable energy in transport

Renewable energy consumed in transport sector in Luxembourg increased to 48 ktoe (2.0 PJ) in 2011 and 49 ktoe (2.1 PJ) in 2012 from 2.1 ktoe (0.1 PJ) in baseline year. This development was faster than what was planned in the NREAP for period 2011 and 2012 exceeding the respective expected uses by 81.8% (+21.6 ktoe) and 28.3% (+10.6 ktoe). In 2020 the use of renewable energy in this sector is expected to reach 226.2 ktoe (9.5 PJ).

Figure 15-13. Relative increase/decrease of RES transport uses in Luxembourg, 2011-12.

Figure 15-14. Deviation from NREAP in the RES use in transport in Luxembourg in 2012.

Biodiesel made the main progress in transport sector during 2005-2011 increasing with 633% per annum in average (+38 ktoe) but only with 17.9% (+7 ktoe) in 2011-12 time span. This development was fast enough to surpass the expected NREAP biodiesel uses in both 2011 and 2012: 81.4% (+17.5 ktoe) more in 2011 and 45.1% (+14.3 ktoe) more in 2012. Bioethanol/bio-ETBE reached 7.0 ktoe (0.3 PJ) in 2011 but decreased significantly during 2011-12 period with 85.7% (-6.0 ktoe). In 2011 the use of bioethanol/bio-ETBE was over the expected NREAP use with 159.3% (+4.3 ktoe) but in 2012 due to the decrease that took place the use of this type of biofuel missed the planned use with 75% (-3.0 ktoe).

No other biofuels or biofuels from wastes, residues and ligno-cellulosic material were used in Luxembourg in 2011 and 2012. -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 %

Bioethanol Biodiesel Electricity Other Art.21.2 Import -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 %

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Between 2005 and 2011 imported biofuels use increased more than what was planned with 750% per annum in average reaching 46 ktoe (1.9 PJ) in 2011 and furthermore with only +1.0 ktoe (+2.2%) in 2012. This development was well over the expected NREAP development in both years: 90.1% (+21.8 ktoe) over in 2011 and 31.7% (+11.3 ktoe) over in 2012.

The use of renewable electricity in transport reached 2.0 ktoe (0.3 PJ) in 2011 increasing with 81.8% over the level in 2005 remaining then unganged between 2011 and 2012. Despite of this increase the use of renewable electricity in transport sector didn't met the expected NREAP uses in both 2011 and 2012: 9.1% (-0.2 ktoe) under in 2011 and 20% (-0.5 ktoe) under in 2012.

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