Study Hypothesis Result Policy Implication
Elbadawi and Sambanis (2000a)
The relatively higher prevalence of war in Africa is not due to the ethno-linguistic fragmentation of its countries, but rather to high levels of poverty, failed political institutions, and economic dependence on natural resources.
Low political rights are significantly and negatively correlated with the incidence of war.
The strategy to prevent civil wars in Africa should be based on promoting political freedom and molding a governance framework that can accommodate Africa’s social
diversity. Henderson
and Singer (2000)
The presence of semi- democracy increases the likelihood of civil war.
The practices of semi- democracy are associated with an increased likelihood of civil war. A multifaceted strategy of full democratization is required to reduce the likelihood of civil war in post-colonies states. Hegre et
al. (2001)
Semi-democracies are more likely to experience civil war than either democracies or autocracies.
Coherent democracies and harshly authoritarian states have few civil wars, and intermediate regimes are the most conflict-prone.
The most reliable path to stable domestic peace in the country is to democratize as much as possible. Sambanis
(2001)
Ethnic wars are predominantly due to political, rather than economic grievances. Living in a bad neighborhood, with undemocratic neighbors or neighbors at war, significantly increases ethnic war. Politics is more important than economics in causing ethnic civil war and ethnic heterogeneity significantly increases the risk of such war. Reynal-
Querol (2001)
The combination of political system and democracy level has a high explanatory power on the probability of ethnic civil war.
Middle-level
democracies are more prone to civil war than high level democracies and high level
autocracies.
The establishment of consociational democracies can prevent ethnic wars
Source: Compiled by the author
Elbawadi and Sambanis (2000a) found that low political rights are significantly and negatively correlated with the incidence of war. Using recently developed models of the overall prevalence of civil wars in 161 countries between 1960-1999, they draw lessons with special reference to Africa, showing that the relatively higher prevalence of war in
Africa is not due to the ethno-linguistic fragmentation of its countries, but rather to high levels of poverty, failed political institutions, and economic dependence on natural resources. They argue that the best and fastest strategy to reduce the prevalence of civil war in Africa and prevent future civil wars is to institute democratic reforms that effectively manage the challenges facing Africa's diverse societies. In subsequent papers, Elbadawi and Sambanis (2002) found that democracy is negatively associated with ethnic conflict and that ethnic conflict prevalence is positively associated with ethnic fractionalization.
Henderson and Singer’s (2000) results of logistic regression analyses corroborate previous findings that the practices of semi-democracy are associated with an increased likelihood of civil war. Among the cultural, political, and economic factors, semi- democracy has the greatest impact on the probability of civil war, which suggests the greater role of political than economic or cultural factors in post-colonial civil wars. The findings suggest that a multifaceted strategy of full democratization and economic development is required to reduce the likelihood of civil war in post colonial states.
Hegre et al. (2001) found that middle-level democracies are more prone to civil war than high level democracies and high level autocracies. According to them, coherent democracies and harshly authoritarian states have few civil wars, and intermediate regimes are the most conflict prone. Further, they found that domestic violence also seems to be associated with political change, whether toward greater democracy or greater autocracy. Based on an analysis of the period 1816-1992, they concluded that
intermediate regimes are most prone to civil war, even when they have had time to stabilize from a regime change.
Sambani (2001) argue that identity wars are predominantly due to political grievance rather than lack of economic opportunity. Using a new data set that he compiled of 161 countries observed annually over a forty-year period, Sambani found that the lack of democracy is a significant predictor of the onset of ethnic civil war. Also Sambani found an important new result is that living in a bad neighborhood, with undemocratic neighbors or neighbors at war, significantly increases a country’s risk of experiencing ethnic civil war.
Reynal-Querol (2001) analyzes the role of political systems in preventing ethnic conflicts. She develops a simple theoretical model that captures the basic relationship between the political system and rebellion. The important question that this research analyzes is the political characteristics that can prevent or promote civil wars. In her research, Reynal-Querol explained that the combination of political system and democracy level has a high explanatory power on the probability of ethnic civil war. From the empirical analysis she shows how the structure of a political system is an important mechanism that can affect the probability of civil war in a democratic system. Moreover, she found empirically that the establishment of consociational democracies can prevent ethnic wars which originated from religious differences.
2.3.3 Cultural factors and ethnic conflicts
There is a large literature devoted to analysis of the relationship between cultural factors and ethnic conflicts. Most of this has been empirical (Collier and Hoeffler 1998; Ellingsen 2000; Elbawadi and Sambanis 2002; Reynal-Querol 2002). These studies suggest that there are two key cultural elements involved in ethnic conflicts: ethnic diversity and religion. Table 2.3 summarizes the existing literature on ethnic conflict and social factors.