2 CAPITULO II MARCO TEÓRICO
2.1 TEORÍAS DE ESTIMACIÓN DEL RIESGO CREDITICIO
2.1.4 LA TEORÍA DE RIESGO COLECTIVO Y RIESGO DE CRÉDITO
Due to the multidisciplinary nature of the SC concept, the measurement of SC is even more controversial than its definition. In fact, many indicators that have been used to account for SC have been openly criticised.
Apart from the identification of some common themes, the measurement of SC can be made more manageable by overcoming the chasm that exists between the theoretical underpinnings of SC and its measurement. To achieve this, some key guiding principles are recommended (Stone and Hughes, 2002; Productivity Commission, 2003; OECD, 2001):
• measurement must be theoretically informed, with an illustration of the clear links between the theory and the measure;
• empirical work should mirror the multidimensional nature of SC;136
• must clearly distinguish between measures of SC and measures of its outcomes and determinants;
• a balance needs to be struck between subjective and objective measures;
• national-level analysis needs to incorporate distributional implications, as well as explicitly identifying SC as a national resource for collective action;
• an acknowledgement that measuring this concept is still in the early stages of development should be made clear; and
• need to distinguish between the three types of SC: bonding, bridging and linking.
One of the best-known approaches towards the measurement of SC is the WB social capital assessment tool, which involves both qualitative and quantitative methods at the household, organisation and community level. This suite-of-indicators approach, used by the WB, OECD, and found in most empirical literature, reflects the multidimensional nature of SC. A suite-of-indicators approach lists the key measures of SC alongside each other, as well as an assessment of the links between them. It finds a balance between trust and memberships, and covers what it considers to be the key dimensions,
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Despite acknowledging SC’s multidimensional nature, which would imply a multidimensional conceptualisation and measurement, a number of studies rely upon indicators that represent only a single factor of SC and thus ignore other aspects of SC (Stone, 2001).
eight in the case of the WB and the OECD, encompassing networks, values and norms (Productivity Commission, 2003).
The recognition of the guiding principle is vital since this can heavily influence the results of a study. Generally, empirical studies have shown that there is support for the role of SC in influencing the effectiveness of public institutions and government efficacy, as well as a range of social and economic variables (OECD, 2001).
From an international perspective, comparisons normally incorporate World Values Survey data (see Veenhoven, 2005) for cross-country comparisons of trust and civic cooperation indexes where results vary. For example, Knack (2001) found a positive correlation, which was statistically significant, between trust and the level of investment in 25 OECD countries whereas Helliwell (1996) found a negative relationship between the trust index and GDP growth in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Additionally, Inglehart (1997) found no correlation between the survey’s index of group membership and economic growth.
National studies are more frequent, with the most famous being those of Putnam. In 1993, Putnam examined SC and government effectiveness. He devised an index of civic engagement based on: density of associations, newspaper readership, voter turnout and preference voting in general elections. He concluded that the south of Italy exhibited significantly less civic engagement than the central and northern regions. This, he cites, is one of the major reasons that the south is less economically developed than the north. In 2000, Putnam examined SC in the US by constructing a composite indicator comprising 14 variables that assessed 5 separate dimensions of SC: community or organisational life; engagement in public affairs; community volunteerism; informal sociability; and social trust. Putnam found that over the last three decades the levels of SC had declined, in large part due to changes in family structure, suburban sprawl and television viewing habits (Putnam, 1993, 2000).137 Putnam’s index of SC was used by Casey and Christ (2005) and integrated into cross-sectional regression models incorporating physical and human capital to gauge economic performance in the US.
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Interestingly, the south of Italy’s lower economic development outcome is due to lower rates of civic engagement, yet the US, which has traditionally high rates of economic development, experiences a decline in SC due to this factor.
They found that SC had no discernible influence on output and employment but impacts significantly on economic equality and employment stability.
Another study by Knack and Keefer’s (1997), equated SC with the quality of a society’s political, legal and economic institutions. The cross-country empirical examination of the relationship between SC and national economic wealth found a statistically significant positive relationship between levels of trust and civic cooperation in a society, and economic growth rates.Specifically, the results showed that from the time span of 1980 to 1992, as trust rose by 10 percentage points, annual GDP growth increased by 0.8 percentage points. In addition, for each 8 percentage point rise in civic cooperation, growth increased by more than 1 per cent (Productivity Commission, 2003). The results indicate thathigher trust reduces the cost of transactions, corruption and bureaucratic delays. Furthermore, it showed that a lack of property rights stifles economic wealth.
Knack and Keefer also concluded that contrary to Putnam’s 1993 findings for the Italian regions, associational activity is not correlated with economic performance. Likewise, the promotion of horizontal associations via the encouragement and formation of groups may in fact be counterproductive (Knack and Keefer, 1997).
Many other national studies have been conducted, some of which involve Britain, France, The Netherlands, Sweden, France, Germany, Japan and Australia.138 Given that many of the studies performed are open to criticism, the difficulties and accompanying limitations involved in measuring SC need to be recognised. The main complications involved with measuring SC centre around data availability, methodologies employed, and conceptualising SC and its linkages.