After conducting this research, several conclusions to present are:
1. There are two models representing this research, which are conceptual and simulation model. Conceptual model is described by using input-output and causal loop diagram, while simulation model is described by using stock flow diagram which is run using STELLA software. Identified variables becomes input for input-output diagram and it is classified into controlled and uncontrolled input. Then, the reciprocity of variables is identified through causal loop diagram. Based on the identification and reciprocity of variables, stock flow diagram is constructed by using STELLA software and it will generate output for livestock ecotourism development in Kabupaten Malang. Eight Sub models is constructed in the stock flow diagram and it represents the conceptual model, The eight sub models are consisted of labor, land usage and tourism object, gas pollution, tourists, budget allocation, GRDP of livestock, investment, OSR and GRDP.
2. Policy Scenarios on livestock ecotourism development in Kabupaten Malang is generated by combining schemes of controlled variables. In this research, the controlled variables is taken from each players. The controlled variable of Dinas Pariwisata is number of tourism promotion, while the controlled variable of Dinas Peternakan is proportion of livestock’s promotion. Because variable of Dinas Pariwisata only effects OSR and variable of Dinas Peternakan only effects GRDP of Kabupaten Malang, so compromised variable is needed to give impact on OSR and GRDP of Kabupaten Malang. Compromised variable is
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taken from variable owned by two players, which is number of livestock’s ecotourism object. A treatment of scheme is conducted on each variables. High scheme of existing condition is constructed because this research discussed about development. Based on two schemes (high and existing scheme) and thee controlled variables (number of tourism promotion, proportion of livestock’s promotion, and number of livestock’s ecotourism object), so 16 policy scenarios is generated to develop livestock’s ecotourism in Kabupaten Malang. - Scenario 1: Existing scheme of number of tourism promotion, proportion
of livestock's promotion, and number of livestock ecotourism object - Scenario 2: Existing scheme of number of tourism promotion, existing
proportion of livestock's promotion, and low-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 3: Existing scheme of number of tourism promotion, existing scheme of number of livestock ecotourism object, and high scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion
- Scenario 4: Existing scheme of number of tourism promotion, high scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and low-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 5: Existing scheme of number of tourism promotion, existing scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and medium-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 6: Existing scheme of number of tourism promotion, existing scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and absolute-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 7: Existing scheme of number of tourism promotion, high scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and medium-high number of livestock ecotourism object
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- Scenario 8: Existing scheme of number of tourism promotion, high scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and absolute-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 9: High scheme of number of tourism promotion, existing scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 10: High scheme of number of tourism promotion, existing proportion of livestock's promotion, and low-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 11: High scheme of number of tourism promotion, existing scheme of number of livestock ecotourism object, and high scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion
- Scenario 12: High scheme of number of tourism promotion, high scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and low-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 13: High scheme of number of tourism promotion, existing scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and medium-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 14: High scheme of number of tourism promotion, existing scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and absolute-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 15: High scheme of number of tourism promotion, high scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and medium-high number of livestock ecotourism object
- Scenario 16: High scheme of number of tourism promotion, high scheme of proportion of livestock's promotion, and absolute-high number of livestock ecotourism object
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3. The combination of two schemes and two variables of each players can generate the strategies of each players. There are four strategies for Player 1 (Dinas Pariwisata Kabupaten Malang), which are:
- Allocate 5 promotions in a year and build 1 object in 2014 with the increasing 1 object per 3 years.
- Allocate 5 promotions in a year and build 5 objects in 2014 with the increasing 2 objects per 2 years.
- Allocate 10 promotions in a year and build 1 object in 2014 with the increasing 1 object per 3 years.
- Allocate 10 promotions in a year and build 5 objects in 2014 with the increasing 2 objects per 2 years.
On the other hand, Player 2 (Dinas Peternakan Kabupaten Malang) also has four strategies to develop livestock’s ecotourism in Kabupaten Malang, which are:
- Allocate 5 promotions in a year and build 1 object in 2014 with the increasing 1 object per 3 years.
- Allocate 5 promotions in a year and build 3 objects in 2014 with the increasing 2 objects per 3 years.
- Allocate 10 promotions in a year and build 1 object in 2014 with the increasing 1 object per 3 years.
- Allocate 10 promotions in a year and build 3 objects in 2014 with the increasing 2 objects per 3 years.
Selection of best policy scenario for two players is conducted by using game theory. It is identified through assessment criteria of scenario simulation. The assessment criteria of scenario are OSR, GRDP, and gas pollution of Kabupaten Malang. Solution of the game is solved by using complementary slackness on matrix payoff. It is identified by considering the cost impact of gas pollution or not. The solution if the players don’t consider cost impact of gas pollution is dominant strategy 4 for Player 1 and strategy 4 for Player 2.
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However, the best policy is considering cost impact of gas pollution for strategies of each players. The best policy scenario is expected to give win-win solution for both players. Based on the solution of the game, scenario 12 is selected to be the best policy scenario for Dinas Pariwisata and Dinas Peternakan. Scenario 12 is the combination of strategy 3 of Player 1 and strategy 4 of Player 2. Those strategies are expected to increase Own Source Revenue and Gross Regional Domestic Product of Kabupaten Malang. So, the best strategy for each players to develop livestock’s ecotourism in Kabupaten Malang is:
1. Dinas Pariwisata Kabupaten Malang should increase promotion of livestock’s ecotourism object until 10 promotions in a year.
2. Dinas Peternakan Kabupaten Malang should increase proportion of livestock’s promotion budget in a year.
3. Both Players should cooperate to build 2 livestock’s ecotourism objects in 2014 and then increase to build 1 object per 3 years.