TRADICIÓN ORAL

Planning Area or group of Planning

Areas

Short Term Commissioning Position (by 2013)

Medium Term Commissioning Position (by 2016)

Longer Term Commissioning (> 2016)

Canterbury No change Any additional places needed can be

managed by commissioning extra places in existing schools.

Herne Bay Keep surplus capacity under review Possibly remove surplus capacity in

some schools.

Short Term Commissioning Position (by 2013)

Medium Tem Commission Position (by

2016) Longer Term Commissioning (>2016)

SWALE

District Analysis – Primary

There are 49 primary phase schools in the Swale District, providing 1696 Reception Year places. Surplus places in Swale are forecast to reduce and a deficit of 43 Reception Year places is predicted in 2014 when Reception Year rolls are forecast to peak at 1822 pupils. This means action is needed to increase capacity.

On the Isle of Sheppey school rolls are forecast to increase over the next three years, especially in Sheerness. Action is therefore planned for expansion of primary school capacity in Sheppey in response to the rising birth rate and proposed housing development at Thistle Hill. There was a shortfall of Reception Year places for entry in September 2011 and an additional 35 places were commissioned. These were in addition to the published admission numbers for the planning areas. Reception Year forecasts show a continual increase and the demand for places will be managed through temporary arrangements with schools until permanent solutions are agreed.

Sittingbourne is a growth area with further new housing proposed. School rolls are forecast to increase. 2FE to 3FE may be needed to meet demand generated by housing developments at East Hall Farm, Stone Farm and Iwade. Up to 1625 new housing units are anticipated from these three developments. Numbers are expected to reduce in the more rural areas of Sittingbourne and as traditionally parents have sought places in these locations, this will help to ease any pressure on places in Sittingbourne Town. Some of this expansion may be on a temporary basis as Reception Year numbers are predicted to fall again across the District in 2015

Expansion is already underway in some Faversham primary schools to meet the increased demand for Reception Year places. Due to the increased demand for Reception Year places for entry in September 2011 an additional 1.3 forms of entry were commissioned. 15 places at Bysing Wood, 15 places at Ethelbert Road and 10 places at Ospringe. In the medium term this provision will need to be made permanent to meet continuing demand.

The long term population forecast is for the primary aged population to increase to 12300 in 2016 before falling back to 11600 in 2026. Accuracy of forecasts – Primary forecasts for Swale have been generally accurate over the last few years.

District Analysis – Secondary

There are currently 1642 places in Year 7 in secondary schools in Swale. This exceeds the demand for secondary school places in the District in each of the next 10 years. However, surplus capacity in The Abbey School in Faversham and the Isle of Sheppey Academy masks a pressure on places in Sittingbourne. By 2018 the demand for secondary school places in Swale will have almost peaked and the pressure on secondary school places in Sittingbourne will be acute. Action will need to be taken in order to maintain sufficient local capacity and to maintain a degree of parental choice. This will involve consultation with existing providers to consider the scope for the expansion of existing provision.

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Swale Primary Commissioning Position

Planning Area or group of Planning

Areas

Short Term Commissioning Position (by 2013)

Medium Term Commissioning Position (by 2016)

Longer Term Commissioning (> 2016)

Sittingbourne The additional school places needed will

initially be provided by adding places at existing schools.

2FE to 3FE may be needed. This will be managed through expansion of existing schools.

Sheerness, Queenborough, Halfway and Minster

The forecast Reception Year increase will be managed through temporary

arrangements with schools until permanent solutions are agreed.

Up to 2FE will be required on a permanent basis to meet demand, most likely through expansion of existing schools.

Faversham No further change. 1.3FE permanent build to replace the

temporary expansion already provided at three schools.

Short Term Commissioning Position (by 2013)

Medium Tem Commission Position (by 2016)

Longer Term Commissioning (>2016)

No change. Potentially 1-2FE additional capacity will be required

in the Sittingbourne secondary schools over the medium to longer term. The position will be reviewed and be subject to consultation with local providers in 2014-15.

DOVER

District Analysis – Primary

There are currently 41 schools in the Dover District serving the primary phase with a total of 1267 places available annually in Reception Year. There was an increase in the demand for Reception Year places for entry in September 2011 in the Deal locality. In agreement with the local authority, Hornbeam Primary School admitted 60 pupils (30 over the PAN of 30), to meet this demand. Forecasts indicate that the “blip” of 2011 will be repeated in 2013/14, while in other forecast years Reception Year numbers will be 70 to 90 pupils fewer.

The number of surplus places forecast for the Dover District primary schools across the entire primary age range will reduce to 5% by 2016. This means that, on the basis of current projections, there is sufficient capacity across the District to meet the expected demand.

Major new housing is projected for Dover over the next 20 years with up to 14000 new houses predicted over that period. Potential development is documented within the Local Development Framework. The most intensive development is planned for the Whitfield area where up to 6000 new houses are anticipated. Realisation of development on this scale would require significant new primary school capacity. A new 1FE school will need to be commissioned by 2016 with the potential for expansion to 2FE in the longer term

In Aylesham, planned new house building has not so far impacted on demand for primary school places. Unless proposed housing developments bring forward additional pupils it may be necessary to consider reducing the capacity in the planning area.

The long term population forecast is for the primary aged population to increase to 9900 by 2026. This would require 800 additional places (4FE) to those currently available (2011/12) if a 5% surplus is to be maintained (and assuming 95% of the cohort seek places in Dover’s state schools.

Accuracy of forecasts – Forecasts for Dover primary schools have in recent years tended to over estimate the number of pupils consistently.

District Analysis – Secondary

On the basis of current projections, the existing Year 7 capacity of secondary schools in the Dover District exceeds the demand for places in each of the next 10 years. This means that unless there is a substantial acceleration in the pace and/or scale of proposed housing development, there will be no need to commission additional places in Dover over the next 6 years.

Currently four of the nine secondary schools in the Dover District are academies with a further conversion of one school expected this year. Accuracy of forecasts – Dover secondary forecasts have proved to be largely accurate over the last 5 years.

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Dover Primary Commissioning Position

Planning Area or group of Planning

Areas

Short Term Commissioning Position (by 2013)

Medium Term Commissioning Position (by 2016)

Longer Term Commissioning (> 2016)

Dover and Whitfield Any shortfall of places will be met by

increasing capacity at existing schools as necessary.

A 1FE school will need to be commissioned by 2016 with the potential for expansion to 2FE.

A further two 2FE schools will be needed in the longer term,. Aylesham and

Nonington

No change Consideration may need to be given to reducing surplus capacity.