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Both observational scales (ECERS-R and ECERS-E) were found to be significant predictors of

students’ ‘self-regulation’ scores in Year 9, although the original and imputed estimates differ slightly.

Taking account of differences in background factors and the early years HLE, students who had

experienced a high quality pre-school (upper 20% on ECERS-R) showed significantly better ‘self-

regulation’ at the end of KS3 compared to similar students who had attended low quality pre-school

settings (bottom 20% of pre-schools in the sample). The magnitude of the average differences

between these two categories of students is approximately 3.3 points on the original data (ES=

0.25), and 1.7 points on the imputed data (ES= 0.12).

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TABLE 4.1.1.1: Contextualised Model: Influence of pre-school quality (ECERS-R) on self-regulation in

Year 9

SELF-REGULATION [SEM CFA Derived Latent Construct, IQ Standardized]: ECERS-R Categorical

FIXED-EFFECTS PARAMETERS

ORIGINAL DATA IMPUTED DATA (Stata ICE)

Estimate Sig. _Error Std. Effect _Size Estimate Sig. _Error Std. Effect _Size

Gender 5.502 *** 0.839 0.42 6.266 *** 0.571 0.46 Age within cohort 0.216 * 0.131 0.10 0.278 *** 0.083 0.13 Ethnicity: Ref = White UK heritage

White European heritage 1.873 2.513 0.14 0.348 1.531 0.03 Black Caribbean heritage -1.924 2.923 -0.15 -0.125 1.544 -0.01 Black African heritage -1.118 3.590 -0.09 -1.784 1.953 -0.13 Any other ethnic minority 1.890 3.356 0.14 0.641 1.824 0.05 Indian heritage 4.893 3.552 0.37 4.487 ** 1.921 0.33 Pakistani heritage -0.928 2.607 -0.07 1.299 1.410 0.10 Bangladeshi heritage 6.705 4.835 0.51 5.293 * 2.712 0.39 Mixed race -1.364 1.820 -0.10 -1.764 1.159 -0.13 Number of Siblings: Ref = No Siblings

1 Sibling 1.768 1.271 0.14 1.817 ** 0.919 0.13 2 Siblings 0.971 1.415 0.07 1.200 0.989 0.09 3+ Siblings 0.361 1.660 0.03 0.017 1.192 0.00 Highest SES KS2: Ref Unempded/No wkg

Unskilled -0.237 3.168 -0.02 -0.201 2.150 -0.01 Semi-Skilled -2.374 1.920 -0.18 -1.146 1.202 -0.08 Skilled Manual -0.546 1.754 -0.04 0.956 1.065 0.07 Skilled, Non-Manual 4.332 *** 1.660 0.33 4.014 *** 0.970 0.30 Other Professional, Non-Manual 2.662 * 1.537 0.20 4.203 *** 0.968 0.31 Professional, Non-Manual 4.336 ** 1.940 0.33 5.997 *** 1.303 0.44 Mother's Highest Qual E Yrs: Ref = None

Other professional/ Misc. 1.784 3.249 0.14 3.095 2.264 0.23 Vocational -1.611 1.597 -0.12 1.017 0.962 0.08 16 academic 1.298 1.378 0.10 2.193 *** 0.808 0.16 18 academic 4.372 ** 1.871 0.33 4.116 *** 1.216 0.31 Degree or equivalent 5.552 *** 1.767 0.42 6.225 *** 1.173 0.46 Higher degree 8.012 *** 2.339 0.61 7.468 *** 1.700 0.55 Marital Status of Parent Ref = Married

Single -2.897 ** 1.324 -0.22 -1.789 ** 0.911 -0.13 Separated/Divorced 0.513 1.861 0.04 -1.229 1.265 -0.09 Living with partner -1.841 1.310 -0.14 -2.420 *** 0.890 -0.18 Widow/ widower -2.260 4.363 -0.17 -0.818 2.703 -0.06 Early Years HLE (Continuous scale) 0.227 *** 0.061 0.26 0.239 *** 0.042 0.27 Pre-school Quality (ECERS-R): Ref = Low Quality (Lowest 20%)

No Quality (i.e. Home Children) 0.824 2.152 0.06 -0.507 1.200 -0.04 Medium Quality (Middle 60%) 0.940 1.232 0.07 0.386 0.838 0.03 High Quality (Highest 20%) 3.334 ** 1.432 0.25 1.652 * 0.978 0.12 Intercept 87.076 *** 2.656 85.163 *** 1.767

RANDOM-EFFECTS PARAMETERS

Variance (Level 2) 8.443 *** 2.251 5.294 *** 1.067 Variance (Level 1) 171.444 *** 4.050 181.846 *** 2.579 Total Variance 179.886 187.140

Number of Level-1 Observations 1126 2930 Number of Level-2 Units 371 775 Deviance (-2 x Log Restricted-Likelihood) 8914.92 . Variance Partitioning Coefficient (VPC)/

Intra-Class Correlation (ICC) 0.047 0.028 Proportion of Level-1 Variance Reduction

[Compared to Null Model] (%) 18.05 13.05 Proportion of Level-2 Variance Reduction

[Compared to Null Model] (%) 47.25 67.39 Proportion of Total Variance Reduct (%) 20.13 16.97

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TABLE 4.1.1.2: Contextualised Model: Influence of pre-school quality (ECERS-E) on self-regulation in

Year 9

SELF-REGULATION [SEM CFA Derived Latent Construct, IQ Standardized]: ECERS-E Categorical

FIXED-EFFECTS PARAMETERS

ORIGINAL DATA IMPUTED DATA (Stata ICE)

Estimate Sig. Std.

Error

Effect

Size Estimate Sig.

Std. Error

Effect Size

Gender 5.516 *** 0.837 0.42 6.290 *** 0.570 0.47 Age within cohort 0.201 0.131 0.10 0.280 *** 0.083 0.13 Ethnicity: Ref = White UK heritage

White European heritage 1.734 2.481 0.13 0.169 1.542 0.01 Black Caribbean heritage -2.074 2.938 -0.16 -0.529 1.566 -0.04 Black African heritage -1.345 3.585 -0.10 -2.226 1.959 -0.16 Any other ethnic minority 1.371 3.368 0.10 0.011 1.822 0.00 Indian heritage 4.746 3.547 0.36 4.217 ** 1.909 0.31 Pakistani heritage -1.074 2.558 -0.08 1.006 1.414 0.07 Bangladeshi heritage 5.890 4.585 0.45 4.798 * 2.668 0.36 Mixed race -1.383 1.820 -0.11 -1.889 1.166 -0.14 Highest SES KS2 Ref Unemplyd/No wkg

Unskilled -0.350 3.162 -0.03 -0.321 2.151 -0.02 Semi-Skilled -2.091 1.911 -0.16 -1.107 1.214 -0.08 Skilled Manual -0.330 1.748 -0.03 0.955 1.054 0.07 Skilled, Non-Manual 4.454 *** 1.641 0.34 4.104 *** 0.966 0.30 Other Professional, Non-Manual 2.804 * 1.512 0.21 4.263 *** 0.969 0.32 Professional, Non-Manual 4.476 ** 1.918 0.34 6.024 *** 1.299 0.45 Mother's Highest Qual EYs Ref = None

Other professional/ Misc. 1.750 3.242 0.13 3.387 2.266 0.25 Vocational -1.600 1.587 -0.12 1.106 0.954 0.08 16 academic 1.470 1.373 0.11 2.321 *** 0.804 0.17 18 academic 4.280 ** 1.849 0.33 4.230 *** 1.210 0.31 Degree or equivalent 5.583 *** 1.758 0.43 6.295 *** 1.169 0.47 Higher degree 7.749 *** 2.330 0.59 7.446 *** 1.697 0.55 Marital Status of Parent Ref = Married

Single -2.922 ** 1.310 -0.22 -1.915 ** 0.905 -0.14 Separated/Divorced 0.751 1.856 0.06 -1.194 1.263 -0.09 Living with partner -1.924 1.305 -0.15 -2.532 *** 0.893 -0.19 Widow/ widower -2.161 4.359 -0.17 -0.556 2.732 -0.04 Early Years HLE (Continuous scale) 0.232 *** 0.060 0.27 0.239 *** 0.041 0.27 Pre-school Quality (ECERS-E): Ref = Low Quality (Lowest 20%)

No Quality (i.e. Home Children) 0.207 2.151 0.02 -0.386 1.219 -0.03 Medium Quality (Middle 60%) 0.534 1.222 0.04 0.635 0.845 0.05 High Quality (Highest 20%) 1.824 1.445 0.14 1.937 ** 0.967 0.14 Intercept 88.558 *** 2.293 86.069 *** 1.440

RANDOM-EFFECTS PARAMETERS

Variance (Level 2) 9.034 *** 2.277 5.453 *** 1.072 Variance (Level 1) 171.381 *** 4.036 182.067 *** 2.587 Total Variance 180.415 187.519

Number of Level-1 Observations 1130 2930 Number of Level-2 Units 371 775 Deviance (-2 x Log Restricted-Likelihood) 8959.03 . Variance Partitioning Coefficient (VPC)/

Intra-Class Correlation (ICC) 0.050 0.029 Proportion of Level-1 Variance Reduction

[Compared to Null Model] (%) 18.08 12.95 Proportion of Level-2 Variance Reduction

[Compared to Null Model] (%) 43.56 66.42 Proportion of Total Variance Reduction

[Compared to Null Model] (%) 19.89 16.80

Significance Levels: * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

The quality of the pre-school centre (ECERS-E) was a better predictor of students’ ‘self-regulation’ in

Year 9 than the ECERS-R scale on the imputed data. The differences in Year 9 teachers’ ratings of

‘self-regulation’ between students who had attended high quality as opposed to low quality pre-

school when they were young were around 1.9 points (ES = 0.14). A slightly stronger statistical

association between ‘self-regulation’ and the ECERS-E scale could be expected as this measure

predominantly relates to academic aspects of the pre-school experience. On the original data

however the differences did not reach statistical significance.

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These results show the net (or unconditional) pre-school quality influences, i.e. estimated differences

in students’ ‘self-regulation’ scores after the influence of background factors, as well as the HLE, are

controlled for in the statistical models.

Earlier analyses have shown the effects of pre-school quality while controlling for early years HLE.

The next set of analyses explores the combined effects of both pre-school and HLE together. The

reference category in each analyses is the group of students who had a low early years HLE and no

pre-school.

Results that model the impact of pre-school quality conditional on the quality of the early years HLE

are summarised in Figure 4.1.1.1. Only effect sizes corresponding to differences between the

reference category and the other combinations of HLE and pre-school quality are represented

graphically (rather than the full set of estimated parameters) to illustrate the findings. The reference

category represents students with no pre-school experience and HLEs of very low quality during the

early years. Effect sizes that are statistically significant are highlighted in bold font, and displayed

against a coloured bar.

FIGURE 4.1.1.1: Interaction effects between pre-school quality (ECERS-E) and early years

HLE on self-regulation in Year 9

Figure 4.1.1.1 shows that the benefits of attending a high quality pre-school persist throughout KS3

depending on the early years HLE. For students who had a very low HLE (0 to 13) attending a pre-

school, regardless of quality had little effect. However, for any measure of HLE above the very low,

attending pre-school was beneficial. The very low HLE group contained a very small number of

children which needs to be born in mind in this analysis.

As the early years HLE scores increase, the long-term impact of having attended a pre-school

setting on later ‘self-regulation’ in KS3 becomes larger (rising from ES=0.50 to ES =0.83 for

attending a high quality pre-school, and from ES=0.40 to ES=0.67 for attending a low quality pre-

school). Generally for students with similar HLE scores, those who had attended high quality pre-

school (top 20% on ECERS-E) show better ‘self regulation’ later on in KS3 compared to students

from medium quality (middle 60%) and low quality (lowest 20%) centres.

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Students with no pre-school experience (the ‘home’ sample), and from families with early years

HLEs of very poor quality have the lowest ‘self regulation scores’ in Year 9. Students who had high

HLEs and attended a high quality pre-school (upper 20%) derived enduring benefits from this

protective combination of factors. Their ‘self-regulation’ scores in Year 9 were on average 11.3

points higher compared to those of students in the ‘home’ sample with very low quality early years

HLE on the imputed data (ES = 0.83), amounting to the difference in ‘self-regulation’ scores between

an average and a top 25 per cent student.

For students in the average and low quality HLE groups, those who had attended a low quality pre-

school seemed to fare better in terms of ‘self-regulation’ in Year 9 compared to their counterparts

who stayed at home. Therefore, a low quality pre-school may offer certain lasting benefits when

parental engagement in activities stimulating the child’s academic and behavioural development is

very low. By contrast, those who had experienced high and very high quality early HLEs but who

attended a low quality pre-school in the bottom 20 per cent showed relatively poorer ‘self-regulation’

by the end of KS3 compared to their counterparts who stayed at home (ES = 0.55 vs. ES=0.43 high

quality early years HLE; ES= 1.18 vs. ES = 0.67 very high quality early years HLE). It should be

noted, only 11 children (4.4%) in the ‘home group’ had very high early years HLE, and the

corresponding large effect size estimate should therefore be treated very cautiously. A similar

pattern, albeit less systematic, showed weaker associations for ECERS-R

. The results are not

reported here for reasons of space.