Pronósticos Económicos

1 MONEX Grupo Financiero / Pronósticos Económicos y Financieros

RESPONSABLE Eduardo Avila Análisis Económico T. 5231 0489 [email protected]

Contenido

Cetes 28 días, Tasa Real y Fondeo Inflación en México MXN$ - USD$ - EUR$

Pronósticos

Económicos

Reporte Mensual

04 de Octubre de 2010

2 MONEX Grupo Financiero / Pronósticos Económicos y Financieros

Cetes 28 días Tasa Real Implícita Fondeo

Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 7.42% 7.59% 4.49% 4.54% e 3.91% 5.04% -2.41% 7.51% 8.02% 4.61% Feb 7.43% 7.12% 4.49% 4.55% e -1.25% 0.22% -3.93% 7.50% 7.68% 4.64% Mar 7.43% 7.03% 4.45% 4.65% e 4.79% 2.86% 8.62% 7.50% 7.22% 4.57% Abr 7.44% 6.05% 4.44% 4.76% e 9.11% 10.00% 12.77% 7.51% 6.39% 4.60% May 7.44% 5.29% 4.52% 4.89% e 2.49% 3.12% 5.00% 7.51% 5.60% 4.60% Jun 7.56% 4.98% 4.59% 5.01% e 0.87% 1.72% 1.99% 7.60% 5.08% 4.59% Jul 7.93% 4.59% 4.59% 5.01% e 1.00% 1.72% 1.27% 7.87% 4.66% 4.61% Ago 8.18% 4.49% 4.52% 5.04% e 0.01% -1.51% -1.98% e 8.13% 4.52% 4.61% Sep 8.17% 4.48% 4.43% 5.08% e 0.00% 0.85% -1.89% e 8.26% 4.53% 4.57% Oct 7.74% 4.51% 4.42% e 5.11% e -5.68% -1.70% -5.03% e 7.99% 4.53% 4.59% e Nov 7.43% 4.51% 4.49% e 5.06% e -0.87% -8.14% -1.13% e 8.13% 4.59% 4.60% e Dic 8.02% 4.50% 4.51% e 5.02% e 5.35% -8.14% -1.32% e 8.27% 4.63% 4.62% e Prom. 7.68% 5.43% 4.49% 4.89% 1.64% 0.50% 1.00% 7.82% 5.62% 4.60%

Inflación Inflación Inflación

Mensual Anual Acumulada

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 0.46% 0.23% 1.09% 0.49% e 3.70% 6.28% 4.46% 0.46% 0.23% 1.09% Feb 0.30% 0.22% 0.58% 0.37% e 3.72% 6.20% 4.83% 0.76% 0.45% 1.67% Mar 0.72% 0.58% 0.71% 0.63% e 4.25% 6.04% 4.97% 1.49% 1.03% 2.39% Abr 0.23% 0.35% -0.32% 0.11% e 4.55% 6.17% 4.27% 1.72% 1.38% 2.07% May -0.11% -0.29% -0.63% -0.24% e 4.95% 5.98% 3.92% 1.61% 1.09% 1.42% Jun 0.41% 0.18% -0.03% 0.14% e 5.26% 5.74% 3.69% 2.03% 1.28% 1.39% Jul 0.56% 0.27% 0.22% 0.32% e 5.39% 5.44% 3.64% 2.60% 1.55% 1.61% Ago 0.58% 0.24% 0.28% 0.35% e 5.57% 5.08% 3.68% 3.20% 1.79% 1.89% Sep 0.68% 0.50% 0.54% e 0.58% e 5.47% 4.89% 3.72% e 3.90% 2.30% 2.45% e Oct 0.68% 0.30% 0.53% e 0.43% e 5.78% 4.50% 3.95% e 4.61% 2.61% 2.99% e Nov 1.14% 0.52% 0.80% e 0.82% e 6.23% 3.86% 4.25% e 5.80% 3.15% 3.82% e Dic 0.69% 0.41% 0.47% e 0.41% e 6.53% 3.57% 4.30% e 6.53% 3.57% 4.30% e Prom. 0.53% 0.29% 0.35% 0.37% 5.12% 5.31% 4.14% 2.89% 1.70% 2.26%

MXN$/USD$ USD$/EUR$ MXN$/EUR$

Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 10.91 13.87 13.10 12.25 e 1.47 1.33 1.43 16.05 18.43 18.69 Feb 10.76 14.63 12.93 12.35 e 1.48 1.28 1.37 15.89 18.72 17.70 Mar 10.73 14.65 12.57 12.35 e 1.55 1.31 1.36 16.67 19.15 17.06 Abr 10.51 13.41 12.24 12.15 e 1.58 1.32 1.34 16.57 17.72 16.43 May 10.44 13.20 12.76 12.05 e 1.56 1.37 1.25 16.24 18.04 15.99 Jun 10.33 13.34 12.74 11.90 e 1.56 1.40 1.22 16.08 18.69 15.56 Jul 10.20 13.36 12.81 11.80 e 1.58 1.41 1.28 16.09 18.83 16.41 Ago 10.11 13.02 12.77 12.00 e 1.50 1.43 1.29 15.12 18.57 16.48 Sep 10.65 13.42 12.80 12.15 e 1.44 1.46 1.31 15.30 19.53 16.76 Oct 12.67 13.23 12.60 e 12.25 e 1.33 1.48 1.36 e 16.83 19.60 17.11 e Nov 13.13 13.10 12.50 e 12.35 e 1.27 1.49 1.34 e 16.71 19.56 16.73 e Dic 13.43 12.86 12.35 e 12.25 e 1.35 1.46 1.32 e 18.18 18.74 16.28 e Prom. 11.16 13.51 12.68 12.15 1.47 1.39 1.32 16.31 18.80 16.77

MXN$/USD$ USD$/EUR$ MXN$/EUR$

Fin de Periodo Fin de Periodo Fin de Periodo

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 10.83 14.33 12.83 12.20 e 1.48 1.28 1.39 16.04 18.37 17.79 Feb 10.71 15.26 12.77 12.50 e 1.52 1.27 1.36 16.26 19.33 17.41 Mar 10.64 14.17 12.36 12.20 e 1.58 1.33 1.35 16.80 18.78 16.69 Abr 10.49 13.84 12.31 12.10 e 1.56 1.32 1.33 16.38 18.31 16.37 May 10.33 13.15 12.93 12.00 e 1.56 1.42 1.23 16.06 18.62 15.92 Jun 10.31 13.19 12.94 11.80 e 1.58 1.40 1.22 16.24 18.50 15.84 Jul 10.04 13.19 12.65 11.80 e 1.56 1.43 1.31 15.66 18.81 16.50 Ago 10.29 13.36 13.20 12.20 e 1.47 1.43 1.27 15.09 19.15 16.74 Sep 10.94 13.51 12.59 12.10 e 1.41 1.46 1.36 15.41 19.78 17.17 Oct 12.83 13.20 12.60 e 12.40 e 1.28 1.47 1.35 e 16.38 19.43 17.05 e Nov 13.46 12.90 12.40 e 12.30 e 1.27 1.50 1.34 e 17.09 19.36 16.66 e Dic 13.67 13.09 12.30 e 12.20 e 1.39 1.43 1.33 e 19.06 18.75 16.40 e Prom. 11.21 13.60 12.66 12.15 1.47 1.40 1.32 16.37 18.93 16.71

Fuente: Monex con base en Banco de México y Bloomberg

4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% E ne _Feb _Mar _Abr M ay _Jun Jul A g o S ep _Oct N o v Dic 2008 2010 2009 2011 CETES 28 Promedio Mensual -8.5% -6.0% -3.5% -1.0% 1.5% 4.0% 6.5% 9.0% 11.5% E ne _Feb _Mar _Abr M ay _Jun Jul A g o S ep _Oct N o v Dic 2008 2010 2009

TASA REAL Implícita de Cetes Promedio Mensual

3 MONEX Grupo Financiero / Pronósticos Económicos y Financieros

Cetes 28 días Tasa Real Implícita Fondeo

Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 7.42% 7.59% 4.49% 4.54% e 3.91% 5.04% -2.41% 7.51% 8.02% 4.61% Feb 7.43% 7.12% 4.49% 4.55% e -1.25% 0.22% -3.93% 7.50% 7.68% 4.64% Mar 7.43% 7.03% 4.45% 4.65% e 4.79% 2.86% 8.62% 7.50% 7.22% 4.57% Abr 7.44% 6.05% 4.44% 4.76% e 9.11% 10.00% 12.77% 7.51% 6.39% 4.60% May 7.44% 5.29% 4.52% 4.89% e 2.49% 3.12% 5.00% 7.51% 5.60% 4.60% Jun 7.56% 4.98% 4.59% 5.01% e 0.87% 1.72% 1.99% 7.60% 5.08% 4.59% Jul 7.93% 4.59% 4.59% 5.01% e 1.00% 1.72% 1.27% 7.87% 4.66% 4.61% Ago 8.18% 4.49% 4.52% 5.04% e 0.01% -1.51% -1.98% e 8.13% 4.52% 4.61% Sep 8.17% 4.48% 4.43% 5.08% e 0.00% 0.85% -1.89% e 8.26% 4.53% 4.57% Oct 7.74% 4.51% 4.42% e 5.11% e -5.68% -1.70% -5.03% e 7.99% 4.53% 4.59% e Nov 7.43% 4.51% 4.49% e 5.06% e -0.87% -8.14% -1.13% e 8.13% 4.59% 4.60% e Dic 8.02% 4.50% 4.51% e 5.02% e 5.35% -8.14% -1.32% e 8.27% 4.63% 4.62% e Prom. 7.68% 5.43% 4.49% 4.89% 1.64% 0.50% 1.00% 7.82% 5.62% 4.60%

Inflación Inflación Inflación

Mensual Anual Acumulada

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 0.46% 0.23% 1.09% 0.49% e 3.70% 6.28% 4.46% 0.46% 0.23% 1.09% Feb 0.30% 0.22% 0.58% 0.37% e 3.72% 6.20% 4.83% 0.76% 0.45% 1.67% Mar 0.72% 0.58% 0.71% 0.63% e 4.25% 6.04% 4.97% 1.49% 1.03% 2.39% Abr 0.23% 0.35% -0.32% 0.11% e 4.55% 6.17% 4.27% 1.72% 1.38% 2.07% May -0.11% -0.29% -0.63% -0.24% e 4.95% 5.98% 3.92% 1.61% 1.09% 1.42% Jun 0.41% 0.18% -0.03% 0.14% e 5.26% 5.74% 3.69% 2.03% 1.28% 1.39% Jul 0.56% 0.27% 0.22% 0.32% e 5.39% 5.44% 3.64% 2.60% 1.55% 1.61% Ago 0.58% 0.24% 0.28% 0.35% e 5.57% 5.08% 3.68% 3.20% 1.79% 1.89% Sep 0.68% 0.50% 0.54% e 0.58% e 5.47% 4.89% 3.72% e 3.90% 2.30% 2.45% e Oct 0.68% 0.30% 0.53% e 0.43% e 5.78% 4.50% 3.95% e 4.61% 2.61% 2.99% e Nov 1.14% 0.52% 0.80% e 0.82% e 6.23% 3.86% 4.25% e 5.80% 3.15% 3.82% e Dic 0.69% 0.41% 0.47% e 0.41% e 6.53% 3.57% 4.30% e 6.53% 3.57% 4.30% e Prom. 0.53% 0.29% 0.35% 0.37% 5.12% 5.31% 4.14% 2.89% 1.70% 2.26%

MXN$/USD$ USD$/EUR$ MXN$/EUR$

Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 10.91 13.87 13.10 12.25 e 1.47 1.33 1.43 16.05 18.43 18.69 Feb 10.76 14.63 12.93 12.35 e 1.48 1.28 1.37 15.89 18.72 17.70 Mar 10.73 14.65 12.57 12.35 e 1.55 1.31 1.36 16.67 19.15 17.06 Abr 10.51 13.41 12.24 12.15 e 1.58 1.32 1.34 16.57 17.72 16.43 May 10.44 13.20 12.76 12.05 e 1.56 1.37 1.25 16.24 18.04 15.99 Jun 10.33 13.34 12.74 11.90 e 1.56 1.40 1.22 16.08 18.69 15.56 Jul 10.20 13.36 12.81 11.80 e 1.58 1.41 1.28 16.09 18.83 16.41 Ago 10.11 13.02 12.77 12.00 e 1.50 1.43 1.29 15.12 18.57 16.48 Sep 10.65 13.42 12.80 12.15 e 1.44 1.46 1.31 15.30 19.53 16.76 Oct 12.67 13.23 12.60 e 12.25 e 1.33 1.48 1.36 e 16.83 19.60 17.11 e Nov 13.13 13.10 12.50 e 12.35 e 1.27 1.49 1.34 e 16.71 19.56 16.73 e Dic 13.43 12.86 12.35 e 12.25 e 1.35 1.46 1.32 e 18.18 18.74 16.28 e Prom. 11.16 13.51 12.68 12.15 1.47 1.39 1.32 16.31 18.80 16.77

MXN$/USD$ USD$/EUR$ MXN$/EUR$

Fin de Periodo Fin de Periodo Fin de Periodo

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 10.83 14.33 12.83 12.20 e 1.48 1.28 1.39 16.04 18.37 17.79 Feb 10.71 15.26 12.77 12.50 e 1.52 1.27 1.36 16.26 19.33 17.41 Mar 10.64 14.17 12.36 12.20 e 1.58 1.33 1.35 16.80 18.78 16.69 Abr 10.49 13.84 12.31 12.10 e 1.56 1.32 1.33 16.38 18.31 16.37 May 10.33 13.15 12.93 12.00 e 1.56 1.42 1.23 16.06 18.62 15.92 Jun 10.31 13.19 12.94 11.80 e 1.58 1.40 1.22 16.24 18.50 15.84 Jul 10.04 13.19 12.65 11.80 e 1.56 1.43 1.31 15.66 18.81 16.50 Ago 10.29 13.36 13.20 12.20 e 1.47 1.43 1.27 15.09 19.15 16.74 Sep 10.94 13.51 12.59 12.10 e 1.41 1.46 1.36 15.41 19.78 17.17 Oct 12.83 13.20 12.60 e 12.40 e 1.28 1.47 1.35 e 16.38 19.43 17.05 e Nov 13.46 12.90 12.40 e 12.30 e 1.27 1.50 1.34 e 17.09 19.36 16.66 e Dic 13.67 13.09 12.30 e 12.20 e 1.39 1.43 1.33 e 19.06 18.75 16.40 e Prom. 11.21 13.60 12.66 12.15 1.47 1.40 1.32 16.37 18.93 16.71 -0.7% -0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 1.3% E ne _Feb _Mar _Abr M ay _Jun Jul A g o S ep _Oct N o v Dic 2008 2010 2009 2011 INFLACIÓN MENSUAL 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% E ne _Feb _Mar _Abr M ay _Jun Jul A g o S ep _Oct N o v Dic 2008 2010 2009 INFLACIÓN ANUAL

4 MONEX Grupo Financiero / Pronósticos Económicos y Financieros

Cetes 28 días Tasa Real Implícita Fondeo

Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 7.42% 7.59% 4.49% 4.54% e 3.91% 5.04% -2.41% 7.51% 8.02% 4.61% Feb 7.43% 7.12% 4.49% 4.55% e -1.25% 0.22% -3.93% 7.50% 7.68% 4.64% Mar 7.43% 7.03% 4.45% 4.65% e 4.79% 2.86% 8.62% 7.50% 7.22% 4.57% Abr 7.44% 6.05% 4.44% 4.76% e 9.11% 10.00% 12.77% 7.51% 6.39% 4.60% May 7.44% 5.29% 4.52% 4.89% e 2.49% 3.12% 5.00% 7.51% 5.60% 4.60% Jun 7.56% 4.98% 4.59% 5.01% e 0.87% 1.72% 1.99% 7.60% 5.08% 4.59% Jul 7.93% 4.59% 4.59% 5.01% e 1.00% 1.72% 1.27% 7.87% 4.66% 4.61% Ago 8.18% 4.49% 4.52% 5.04% e 0.01% -1.51% -1.98% e 8.13% 4.52% 4.61% Sep 8.17% 4.48% 4.43% 5.08% e 0.00% 0.85% -1.89% e 8.26% 4.53% 4.57% Oct 7.74% 4.51% 4.42% e 5.11% e -5.68% -1.70% -5.03% e 7.99% 4.53% 4.59% e Nov 7.43% 4.51% 4.49% e 5.06% e -0.87% -8.14% -1.13% e 8.13% 4.59% 4.60% e Dic 8.02% 4.50% 4.51% e 5.02% e 5.35% -8.14% -1.32% e 8.27% 4.63% 4.62% e Prom. 7.68% 5.43% 4.49% 4.89% 1.64% 0.50% 1.00% 7.82% 5.62% 4.60%

Inflación Inflación Inflación

Mensual Anual Acumulada

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 0.46% 0.23% 1.09% 0.49% e 3.70% 6.28% 4.46% 0.46% 0.23% 1.09% Feb 0.30% 0.22% 0.58% 0.37% e 3.72% 6.20% 4.83% 0.76% 0.45% 1.67% Mar 0.72% 0.58% 0.71% 0.63% e 4.25% 6.04% 4.97% 1.49% 1.03% 2.39% Abr 0.23% 0.35% -0.32% 0.11% e 4.55% 6.17% 4.27% 1.72% 1.38% 2.07% May -0.11% -0.29% -0.63% -0.24% e 4.95% 5.98% 3.92% 1.61% 1.09% 1.42% Jun 0.41% 0.18% -0.03% 0.14% e 5.26% 5.74% 3.69% 2.03% 1.28% 1.39% Jul 0.56% 0.27% 0.22% 0.32% e 5.39% 5.44% 3.64% 2.60% 1.55% 1.61% Ago 0.58% 0.24% 0.28% 0.35% e 5.57% 5.08% 3.68% 3.20% 1.79% 1.89% Sep 0.68% 0.50% 0.54% e 0.58% e 5.47% 4.89% 3.72% e 3.90% 2.30% 2.45% e Oct 0.68% 0.30% 0.53% e 0.43% e 5.78% 4.50% 3.95% e 4.61% 2.61% 2.99% e Nov 1.14% 0.52% 0.80% e 0.82% e 6.23% 3.86% 4.25% e 5.80% 3.15% 3.82% e Dic 0.69% 0.41% 0.47% e 0.41% e 6.53% 3.57% 4.30% e 6.53% 3.57% 4.30% e Prom. 0.53% 0.29% 0.35% 0.37% 5.12% 5.31% 4.14% 2.89% 1.70% 2.26%

MXN$/USD$ USD$/EUR$ MXN$/EUR$

Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 10.91 13.87 13.10 12.25 e 1.47 1.33 1.43 16.05 18.43 18.69 Feb 10.76 14.63 12.93 12.35 e 1.48 1.28 1.37 15.89 18.72 17.70 Mar 10.73 14.65 12.57 12.35 e 1.55 1.31 1.36 16.67 19.15 17.06 Abr 10.51 13.41 12.24 12.15 e 1.58 1.32 1.34 16.57 17.72 16.43 May 10.44 13.20 12.76 12.05 e 1.56 1.37 1.25 16.24 18.04 15.99 Jun 10.33 13.34 12.74 11.90 e 1.56 1.40 1.22 16.08 18.69 15.56 Jul 10.20 13.36 12.81 11.80 e 1.58 1.41 1.28 16.09 18.83 16.41 Ago 10.11 13.02 12.77 12.00 e 1.50 1.43 1.29 15.12 18.57 16.48 Sep 10.65 13.42 12.80 12.15 e 1.44 1.46 1.31 15.30 19.53 16.76 Oct 12.67 13.23 12.60 e 12.25 e 1.33 1.48 1.36 e 16.83 19.60 17.11 e Nov 13.13 13.10 12.50 e 12.35 e 1.27 1.49 1.34 e 16.71 19.56 16.73 e Dic 13.43 12.86 12.35 e 12.25 e 1.35 1.46 1.32 e 18.18 18.74 16.28 e Prom. 11.16 13.51 12.68 12.15 1.47 1.39 1.32 16.31 18.80 16.77

MXN$/USD$ USD$/EUR$ MXN$/EUR$

Fin de Periodo Fin de Periodo Fin de Periodo

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 10.83 14.33 12.83 12.20 e 1.48 1.28 1.39 16.04 18.37 17.79 Feb 10.71 15.26 12.77 12.50 e 1.52 1.27 1.36 16.26 19.33 17.41 Mar 10.64 14.17 12.36 12.20 e 1.58 1.33 1.35 16.80 18.78 16.69 Abr 10.49 13.84 12.31 12.10 e 1.56 1.32 1.33 16.38 18.31 16.37 May 10.33 13.15 12.93 12.00 e 1.56 1.42 1.23 16.06 18.62 15.92 Jun 10.31 13.19 12.94 11.80 e 1.58 1.40 1.22 16.24 18.50 15.84 Jul 10.04 13.19 12.65 11.80 e 1.56 1.43 1.31 15.66 18.81 16.50 Ago 10.29 13.36 13.20 12.20 e 1.47 1.43 1.27 15.09 19.15 16.74 Sep 10.94 13.51 12.59 12.10 e 1.41 1.46 1.36 15.41 19.78 17.17 Oct 12.83 13.20 12.60 e 12.40 e 1.28 1.47 1.35 e 16.38 19.43 17.05 e Nov 13.46 12.90 12.40 e 12.30 e 1.27 1.50 1.34 e 17.09 19.36 16.66 e Dic 13.67 13.09 12.30 e 12.20 e 1.39 1.43 1.33 e 19.06 18.75 16.40 e Prom. 11.21 13.60 12.66 12.15 1.47 1.40 1.32 16.37 18.93 16.71

Fuente: Monex con base en Banco de México y Bloomberg

10.00 10.50 11.00 11.50 12.00 12.50 13.00 13.50 14.00 14.50 15.00 E ne _Feb _Mar _Abr M ay _Jun Jul A g o S ep _Oct N o v Dic 2008 2010 2009 2011 MXN$/USD$ Promedio Mensual 1.16 1.21 1.26 1.31 1.36 1.41 1.46 1.51 1.56 E ne _Feb _Mar _Abr M ay _Jun Jul A g o S ep _Oct N o v Dic 2008 2010 2009 USD$/EUR$ Promedio Mensual

5 MONEX Grupo Financiero / Pronósticos Económicos y Financieros

Cetes 28 días Tasa Real Implícita Fondeo

Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 7.42% 7.59% 4.49% 4.54% e 3.91% 5.04% -2.41% 7.51% 8.02% 4.61% Feb 7.43% 7.12% 4.49% 4.55% e -1.25% 0.22% -3.93% 7.50% 7.68% 4.64% Mar 7.43% 7.03% 4.45% 4.65% e 4.79% 2.86% 8.62% 7.50% 7.22% 4.57% Abr 7.44% 6.05% 4.44% 4.76% e 9.11% 10.00% 12.77% 7.51% 6.39% 4.60% May 7.44% 5.29% 4.52% 4.89% e 2.49% 3.12% 5.00% 7.51% 5.60% 4.60% Jun 7.56% 4.98% 4.59% 5.01% e 0.87% 1.72% 1.99% 7.60% 5.08% 4.59% Jul 7.93% 4.59% 4.59% 5.01% e 1.00% 1.72% 1.27% 7.87% 4.66% 4.61% Ago 8.18% 4.49% 4.52% 5.04% e 0.01% -1.51% -1.98% e 8.13% 4.52% 4.61% Sep 8.17% 4.48% 4.43% 5.08% e 0.00% 0.85% -1.89% e 8.26% 4.53% 4.57% Oct 7.74% 4.51% 4.42% e 5.11% e -5.68% -1.70% -5.03% e 7.99% 4.53% 4.59% e Nov 7.43% 4.51% 4.49% e 5.06% e -0.87% -8.14% -1.13% e 8.13% 4.59% 4.60% e Dic 8.02% 4.50% 4.51% e 5.02% e 5.35% -8.14% -1.32% e 8.27% 4.63% 4.62% e Prom. 7.68% 5.43% 4.49% 4.89% 1.64% 0.50% 1.00% 7.82% 5.62% 4.60%

Inflación Inflación Inflación

Mensual Anual Acumulada

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 0.46% 0.23% 1.09% 0.49% e 3.70% 6.28% 4.46% 0.46% 0.23% 1.09% Feb 0.30% 0.22% 0.58% 0.37% e 3.72% 6.20% 4.83% 0.76% 0.45% 1.67% Mar 0.72% 0.58% 0.71% 0.63% e 4.25% 6.04% 4.97% 1.49% 1.03% 2.39% Abr 0.23% 0.35% -0.32% 0.11% e 4.55% 6.17% 4.27% 1.72% 1.38% 2.07% May -0.11% -0.29% -0.63% -0.24% e 4.95% 5.98% 3.92% 1.61% 1.09% 1.42% Jun 0.41% 0.18% -0.03% 0.14% e 5.26% 5.74% 3.69% 2.03% 1.28% 1.39% Jul 0.56% 0.27% 0.22% 0.32% e 5.39% 5.44% 3.64% 2.60% 1.55% 1.61% Ago 0.58% 0.24% 0.28% 0.35% e 5.57% 5.08% 3.68% 3.20% 1.79% 1.89% Sep 0.68% 0.50% 0.54% e 0.58% e 5.47% 4.89% 3.72% e 3.90% 2.30% 2.45% e Oct 0.68% 0.30% 0.53% e 0.43% e 5.78% 4.50% 3.95% e 4.61% 2.61% 2.99% e Nov 1.14% 0.52% 0.80% e 0.82% e 6.23% 3.86% 4.25% e 5.80% 3.15% 3.82% e Dic 0.69% 0.41% 0.47% e 0.41% e 6.53% 3.57% 4.30% e 6.53% 3.57% 4.30% e Prom. 0.53% 0.29% 0.35% 0.37% 5.12% 5.31% 4.14% 2.89% 1.70% 2.26%

MXN$/USD$ USD$/EUR$ MXN$/EUR$

Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual Promedio Mensual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 10.91 13.87 13.10 12.25 e 1.47 1.33 1.43 16.05 18.43 18.69 Feb 10.76 14.63 12.93 12.35 e 1.48 1.28 1.37 15.89 18.72 17.70 Mar 10.73 14.65 12.57 12.35 e 1.55 1.31 1.36 16.67 19.15 17.06 Abr 10.51 13.41 12.24 12.15 e 1.58 1.32 1.34 16.57 17.72 16.43 May 10.44 13.20 12.76 12.05 e 1.56 1.37 1.25 16.24 18.04 15.99 Jun 10.33 13.34 12.74 11.90 e 1.56 1.40 1.22 16.08 18.69 15.56 Jul 10.20 13.36 12.81 11.80 e 1.58 1.41 1.28 16.09 18.83 16.41 Ago 10.11 13.02 12.77 12.00 e 1.50 1.43 1.29 15.12 18.57 16.48 Sep 10.65 13.42 12.80 12.15 e 1.44 1.46 1.31 15.30 19.53 16.76 Oct 12.67 13.23 12.60 e 12.25 e 1.33 1.48 1.36 e 16.83 19.60 17.11 e Nov 13.13 13.10 12.50 e 12.35 e 1.27 1.49 1.34 e 16.71 19.56 16.73 e Dic 13.43 12.86 12.35 e 12.25 e 1.35 1.46 1.32 e 18.18 18.74 16.28 e Prom. 11.16 13.51 12.68 12.15 1.47 1.39 1.32 16.31 18.80 16.77

MXN$/USD$ USD$/EUR$ MXN$/EUR$

Fin de Periodo Fin de Periodo Fin de Periodo

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ene 10.83 14.33 12.83 12.20 e 1.48 1.28 1.39 16.04 18.37 17.79 Feb 10.71 15.26 12.77 12.50 e 1.52 1.27 1.36 16.26 19.33 17.41 Mar 10.64 14.17 12.36 12.20 e 1.58 1.33 1.35 16.80 18.78 16.69 Abr 10.49 13.84 12.31 12.10 e 1.56 1.32 1.33 16.38 18.31 16.37 May 10.33 13.15 12.93 12.00 e 1.56 1.42 1.23 16.06 18.62 15.92 Jun 10.31 13.19 12.94 11.80 e 1.58 1.40 1.22 16.24 18.50 15.84 Jul 10.04 13.19 12.65 11.80 e 1.56 1.43 1.31 15.66 18.81 16.50 Ago 10.29 13.36 13.20 12.20 e 1.47 1.43 1.27 15.09 19.15 16.74 Sep 10.94 13.51 12.59 12.10 e 1.41 1.46 1.36 15.41 19.78 17.17 Oct 12.83 13.20 12.60 e 12.40 e 1.28 1.47 1.35 e 16.38 19.43 17.05 e Nov 13.46 12.90 12.40 e 12.30 e 1.27 1.50 1.34 e 17.09 19.36 16.66 e Dic 13.67 13.09 12.30 e 12.20 e 1.39 1.43 1.33 e 19.06 18.75 16.40 e Prom. 11.21 13.60 12.66 12.15 1.47 1.40 1.32 16.37 18.93 16.71

Fuente: Monex con base en Banco de México y Bloomberg

6 MONEX Grupo Financiero / Pronósticos Económicos y Financieros

Resultado de la subasta de Cetes

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