El Futuro Económico de América Latina:
El Futuro Económico de América Latina:
¿Hecho en China?
¿Hecho en China?
1 1
Ciudad de Guatemala Ciudad de Guatemala
28
28--29 de febrero del 2012 29 de febrero del 2012
Oficina del Economista Jefe Oficina del Economista Jefe América Latina y el Caribe América Latina y el Caribe Banco Mundial
Banco Mundial
El entorno global El entorno global El entorno global El entorno global
Turbulencia financiera coyuntural Turbulencia financiera coyuntural
2
Coyuntura global marcada por fragilidad y Coyuntura global marcada por fragilidad y volatilidad financiera
volatilidad financiera
1200 1400 1600 1800
60 70 80 90
VIX Index
S&P 500 and VIX Index
VIX Index S&P500 (rhs)
Sources: Bloomberg. 3
0 200 400 600 800 1000
0 10 20 30 40 50
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 S&P 500
VIX Index
El epicentro europeo El epicentro europeo
La reversión de las fortunas La reversión de las fortunas
South Africa Romania Russia Brazil Vietnam Peru Panama Colombia Indonesia Phillipines Tukey Kazakhastan Ukrain Venezuela Argentina
Global Sovereign CDS 31-Dec-2007, in basis points
Turkey Slovak Rep Bulgaria Spain Romania Italy Croatia avg Hungary Ireland Argentina Ukraine Venezuela Portugal Greece
Global Sovereign CDS Feb-2012, in basis points
Notes: In panel A, for Ireland we use the first CDS quote available (August 2008). Sources: Bloomberg. 4
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Sweden Germany France Belgium Spain Portugal Slovak Rep Ireland Greece Italy Poland Chile Malaysia Korea Hungary Thailand Croatia Mexico Bulgaria South Africa
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Sweden Germany Chile Panama Malaysia Colombia Mexico Brazil Korea Peru Phillipines France Indonesia South Africa Thailand Russia Belgium Poland Kazakhastan Turkey
El epicentro europeo El epicentro europeo
Trauma y drama
Trauma y drama – – ¿cuánto más por venir? ¿cuánto más por venir?
1500 2000 2500
CDS (5 years) in Europe In Basis Points
Ireland+Greece+Portugal France
UK Spain Italy
Notes: In panel A, for Ireland we use the first CDS quote available (August 2008). Sources: Bloomberg. 5 0
500 1000 1500
Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
Italy
El epicentro europeo El epicentro europeo
1 moneda, 17 deudas soberanas 1 moneda, 17 deudas soberanas
15%
20%
25%
Spreads Over German Bonds In %
Official Launch of the Euro
Portugal Greece Ireland
Source: Bloomberg 6
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Mar-93 Apr-94 May-95 Jun-96 Jul-97 Aug-98 Sep-99 Oct-00 Nov-01 Jan-03 Feb-04 Mar-05 Apr-06 May-07 Jun-08 Jul-09 Aug-10 Sep-11
Ireland France Italy Spain
El epicentro europeo El epicentro europeo
Heterogeneidad estructural y la trampa CDM Heterogeneidad estructural y la trampa CDM
120 140 160 180 200
Unit Labor Costs in Europe Index base 100 = q1-2000
Germany Italy Portugal Greece France Spain
20.0%
Debt Sustainability in Europe Theoretical vs Actual Primary Balance
Actual
7
80 100
Q1-2000 Q3-2000 Q1-2001 Q3-2001 Q1-2002 Q3-2002 Q1-2003 Q3-2003 Q1-2004 Q3-2004 Q1-2005 Q3-2005 Q1-2006 Q3-2006 Q1-2007 Q3-2007 Q1-2008 Q3-2008 Q1-2009 Q3-2009 Q1-2010 Q3-2010 Q1-2011
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Greece France Ireland Portugal Italy Spain
% of GDP
Actual Theoretical
Source: EuroStats and Bloomberg. For panel B, the theoretical primary balances is calculated using the last observation of the nominal interests rates on 10ys bonds, and assuming a long term inflation and growth of 1.5% and 2%, respectively.
El epicentro estadounidence El epicentro estadounidence
Débil recuperación económica: Keynes vs. Fischer Débil recuperación económica: Keynes vs. Fischer
5.0%
10.0%
60 70
Industrial Production and ISM Index Industrial Production (YoY %)
110 115 120 125 130 135
Index base 100 = Iq -2003
US Economic Activity GDP Index base 100 = Iq - 2003
2003-2007 trend
Sources: Consensus Forecasts (Feb-2012)and Bloomberg. 8
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Industrial Production (YoY)
ISM Index
ISM Index
Industrial Production 90
95 100 105 110
Mar-03 Dec-03 Sep-04 Jun-05 Mar-06 Dec-06 Sep-07 Jun-08 Mar-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12
Index base 100 = Iq
El epicentro
El epicentro estadounidence estadounidence
Menor calificación crediticia pero el lugar de refugio Menor calificación crediticia pero el lugar de refugio
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Percent
USD
Gold and US T10 2011-2012
110 115
Foreign Currencies Per Dollar Index base 100 = 1-Jan-2011
Yen UK Pound
Euro Real
Source: Bloomberg 9
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1200 1300 1400 1500
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov… Dec-11 Dec-11 Jan-12
Gold US T10
90 95 100 105
Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
El entorno global El entorno global El entorno global El entorno global
Multipolaridad económica Multipolaridad económica
10
Desacoplamiento cíclico
Desacoplamiento cíclico – – centro vs. periferia centro vs. periferia
95 100 105 110 115 120
World Industrial Production Index Apr-08 = 100
Crisis
Advanced Economies Emerging Economies
8% 11% 8%
100%
Contribution to World Economic GDP as a % of World GDP increase (PPP)
Note: The group of developed countries refers to OECD countries excluding Turkey, Mexico, Republic of Korea, and Central European 11
countries. Source: CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis).
80 85 90
Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Apr-11
51%
38%
27%
34%
44%
57%
8% 7% 8%
8% 11% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1996-2001 2001-2006 2009-2011
Others Other Advanced Economies
EM - 20 Euro (15)+US+Japan+Canada+UK
Cambios tectónicos en la distribución de la Cambios tectónicos en la distribución de la actividad económica global
actividad económica global
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of World GDP
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing economies
China
Source: IMF WEO (September 2011) 12
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Implicaciones para América Latina Implicaciones para América Latina
13
Crecimiento reciente y pronósticos para el 2012 Crecimiento reciente y pronósticos para el 2012
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Jamaica El Salvador Trin. & Tob. Guatemala Nicaragua Mexico Brazil LAC Argentina Costa Rica Bolivia Ecuador Paraguay Venezuela Chile Uruguay Colombia Dom. Rep. Peru Panama
Actual Growth and Growth Forecast: LAC Countries Weighted Averages for LAC
2011e 2012f
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
High Income
South Africa
Europe &
Central Latin America &
East Asian Tigers
India China
GDP per capita PPP
% Growth Rate
Real GDP Growth Forecasts Around the World Annual Real GDP Growth Rate, Weighted Averages
14
Jamaica El Salvador Trin. & Tob. Guatemala Nicaragua Mexico Brazil LAC Argentina Costa Rica Bolivia Ecuador Paraguay Venezuela Chile Uruguay Colombia Dom. Rep. Peru Panama
Income Africa Central Asia
America &
Caribbean Tigers
2010 2011 2012 GDP per capita PPP (2010)
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12
LAC 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts Evolution In %
LAC (weighted average) Guatemala
Sources: Consensus Forecast (Feb- 2012), and IMF WEO (September 2011)
Desigual desempeño económico en la región Desigual desempeño económico en la región
La heterogeneidad ha ido mutando en la última década La heterogeneidad ha ido mutando en la última década
80 100 120 140 160 180
Low-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002=100
Actual
2003-2007 Trend
80 100 120 140 160 180
Intermediate-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002=100
Actual
2003-2007 Trend
Sources: Potential GPD is computed as the average rate of growth between 2007 and 2003. Simple averages are used to construct the composite. The categorization of each group is as 15
follow: Slow-growth are those countries that showed a less than 3.5% in their 2011-2008 GDP real growth rate; Medium-growth are those between 3.5% and 10%: High-growth are those with 10% or more. WEO (September– 2011).
80
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
80
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
80 100 120 140 160 180
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
High-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002=100
Actual 2003-2007 Trend
80 100 120 140 160 180
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Guatemala GDP Index 2002=100
Actual
2003-2007 Trend
Desigual desempeño económico Desigual desempeño económico
Importa menos la ubicación que la conexión Importa menos la ubicación que la conexión
(Geometric) Mean growth
2003-2007 Simple Average
(Geometric) Mean growth
2007-2009 Simple Average
(Geometric) Mean growth
2009-2012 Simple Average
Min.
2009-2012
Max.
2009-2012
Low growth (13) 4.9% -1.6% 1.3% -0.1% 4.3%
Medium growth (7) 4.5% 1.7% 3.4% 2.6% 4.4%
Guatemala 4.5% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
Sources: World Bank’s World Development Indicators – WDI (December 2010), IMF's World Economic Outlook – WEO (April 2011), and Consensus Forecasts (June 2011) – 16
Latest available forecasts. Potential GDP is calculated computing the annual average real growth rate for the 2002-2007 to 2007 GDP. Weighted averages (2007 Nominal GDP in USD Billions).
Low growth: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, El Salvador, Grenada, Jamaica, Mexico , St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela
Intermediate growth: Belize, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala , Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua
High growth: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic , Guyana, Panama , Paraguay, Peru, Suriname and Uruguay
Guatemala 4.5% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
High growth (12) 5.9% 4.5% 6.0% 4.5% 8.7%
LAC (all countries) 4.8% 1.1% 3.5% -0.1% 8.7%
La creciente pero desigual conexión con China…
La creciente pero desigual conexión con China…
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Output Co-Movement Between LAC and China 20 years rolling correlation of the Real GDP Growth
Brazil Chile
Colombia Mexico
Peru Argentina
Panama Dom. Rep.
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of Total Exports
Main Trade Partners by Exports 2009
17
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Belize Bahamas St.Vinc.&… Grenada El Salvador Nicaragua Guatemala Panama Barbados Paraguay Dominica Trin.&Tob. Honduras Suriname Guyana Jamaica Dom. Rep. Mexico Colombia Bolivia Ecuador Argentina Venezuela Uruguay Costa Rica Brazil Peru Chile
% of Total Exports
World UE15 LAC USA CHN
… está fuertemente mediatizada por
… está fuertemente mediatizada por commodities commodities
Costa Rica Panama Jamaica Brazil Guatemala Mexico Uruguay Colombia LAC Argentina Ecuador Chile Peru
Cumulative Change in Terms of Trade Monthly Data, Avg. 2002Q1 vs. Avg. 2011Q1
30 50 70 90 110 130 150
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Oil WTI, Current US$
Wheat, Copper and Soybean, Index 01-Jan-05=100
Commodity Prices
Oil WTI in Current US$, Wheat, Copper and Soybean: Index base Jan-05=100
18
-20% 10% 40% 70% 100% 130%
Honduras 30
50
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Feb-92 Dec-92 Oct-93 Aug-94 Jun-95 Apr-96 Feb-97 Dec-97 Oct-98 Aug-99 Jun-00 Apr-01 Feb-02 Dec-02 Oct-03 Aug-04 Jun-05 Apr-06 Feb-07 Dec-07 Oct-08 Aug-09 Jun-10 Apr-11 Feb-12
Terms of Trade Px/Pm Index 2005 = 100 LAC 6 Average
Guatemala
En el corto plazo el foco está en la vulnerabilidad En el corto plazo el foco está en la vulnerabilidad
El sistema inmunológico macro de LAC ha mejorado El sistema inmunológico macro de LAC ha mejorado
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
6.8 7 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8 8.2 8.4 8.6
06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12
Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in Guatemala
Nominal Exchange Rate Interest Rate
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in Guatemala
Series1 Series2
19
Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20
Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
Interest Rates in LAC
Monetary Policy Rates Inflation-Targeting LAC Countries
Fed Funds Target Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Mexico Guatemala
Jan-97 Jun-97 Nov-97 Apr-98 Sep-98 Feb-99 Jul-99 Dec-99 May-00 Oct-00 Mar-01 Aug-01 Jan-02 Jun-02 Nov-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug-06
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Colombia Brazil Chile Mexico Peru Guatemala
Exchange Rate Flexibility Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff Index
1998 2010
Notes: The Exchange Rate Flexibility Index is between 1 (totally rigid exchange rate regime) and 13 (freely floating exchange regime.
El foco de largo plazo es crecimiento con equidad El foco de largo plazo es crecimiento con equidad
¿
¿ Cómo salir de los 100 años de soledad en el crecimiento? Cómo salir de los 100 años de soledad en el crecimiento?
60%
70%
80%
90%
GDP Per Capita of Relative to the US Selected Regions, Weighted Averages
Washington Dissensus Gold Standard
Period
Interwar Period Import Substitution Washington
Consensus Lost
Decade
Avg 61-70 Avg 71-80 Avg 81-90 Avg 91-00 Avg 01-08 Avg 61-08
LAC 7 1.9% 0.4% -2.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3%
Non - LAC 7 1.1% 0.5% -2.0% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2%
Costa Rica 2.2% -1.3% -2.6% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3%
Average TFP growth per year
20
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
LAC EAP: High Income Guatemala
Costa Rica 2.2% -1.3% -2.6% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3%
Dominican Republic 0.1% 0.2% -0.8% 2.3% 1.7% 0.7%
El Salvador 0.9% -1.6% -1.9% 0.5% 0.0% -0.4%
Guatemala 2.1% 1.2% -1.7% 0.4% -0.6% 0.3%
Honduras 0.3% 1.0% -1.3% -2.7% 1.2% -0.3%
Nicaragua 2.2% -1.4% -3.8% -1.4% -1.3% -1.1%
Trinidad &Tobago 3.0% -1.3% -3.0% 3.3% 8.1% 2.0%
EAP 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.2%
China -0.5% 0.9% 1.6% 3.4% 6.2% 2.3%
United States 0.9% -0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6%
Japan 6.7% 1.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.9% 1.9%
Guatemala está entre los países de “resago estable”
Guatemala está entre los países de “resago estable”
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Diverging
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Non-Converging
Notes: Maddison (2007-2009) was used from 1900 to 2006 and Real Per Capita GDP growth from WDI was used to calculate the levels from 2006 to 2010. Source: LCRCE 21
Staff calculations based on Maddison (2007, 2009) and WDI.
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Venezuela Argentina Uruguay
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Colombia Guatemala El Salvador Bolivia Paraguay
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fluctuating
Mexico Brazil
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Semi-Converging
Chile Dominican Republic
Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Ahorro e inversión bajas
Ahorro e inversión bajas
25%
30%
35%
Gross Domestic Savings Decade Average
LAC-7 EAP Guatemala
25%
30%
35%
40%
Investment Decade Average
LAC-7 EAP Guatemala
Notes: In Panel A, EAP includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. In Panel B, EAP includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, 22
Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Both in Panel A and B, LAC-7 includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Sources: WDI, Penn World Tables, and The International Energy Agency (IEA).
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
% of GDP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
% of GDP
En Guatemala En Guatemala
Insuficientes recursos para bienes públicos Insuficientes recursos para bienes públicos
30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Tax revenues by type of taxes
% GDP Direct tax revenues
Indirect tax revenues Social contributions Other taxes
23 0.0
10.0 20.0 30.0
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Guatemala Venezuela Honduras Chile USA Argentina Brasil OECD Suecia
Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo
Brechas de infraestructura Brechas de infraestructura
1.0 1.2 1.4
Electricity Installed Capacity In thousands of KW per 1000 people, simple averages
EAP
LAC7 + URY Guatemala
0.0060 0.0070 0.0080 0.0090
Road Density
In thousands of KM per 1000 people, simple average
LAC7 + URY
Guatemala (available data)
24
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.0000 0.0010 0.0020 0.0030 0.0040 0.0050
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo
Brechas institucionales Brechas institucionales
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Control of Corruption
Guatemala
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Rule of Law
Guatemala
25
Source: D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi 2003: G
-2
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010 Regulatory Quality
Guatemala
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010 Government Effectiveness
Guatemala
Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo
Brechas en capital humano Brechas en capital humano
9.7
29.3 20.3
East Asian Tigers 2010 7.9
40.3 37.5
14.2 LAC-7
2010
46.7
40.6
9.9 2.8
Guatemala 1990
No School Primary Secondary Tertiary
Source: Author’s calculation based on Household datasets and Barro-Lee (2010) 26
19.3
40.9 29.7
10
East Asian Tigers 1990 16.4
51 23.1
9.5 LAC-7
1990
40.7
46.7
40.6
9.9 2.8
Guatemala 1990
No School Primary Secondary Tertiary
Gracias Gracias
27
