Características de la toma de decisiones empresariales

This chapter will summarize the findings of the subquestions and the research questions. The chapter is divided into two separate segments. The first segment focuses on Kingdon’s multiple streams theory, the discussions surrounding the applicability of Kingdon, as well as the illustration of the case study with regard to the Netherlands government its contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan between 2011 and 2016. This segment addresses the first four subquestions, namely, 1) What is Kingdon’s multiple streams theory? 2) How did the Netherlands formulate its policy with regard to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan and what revisions have been made between 2011 and 2016? 3) What are the characteristics of Kingdon’s multiple streams in the policymaking process of the Netherlands government its contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan? 4) What was the role of policy entrepreneurs, policy communities and focusing events in the policymaking process of the Netherlands government?

The second segment of this conclusion addresses the second segment of this thesis, which has an evaluative approach, and concerns the terms of reference which are complemented by Swanborn’s remarks on evaluation research. The second segment addresses subquestion 5, namely, 5) To what extent are the Netherlands government its intentions with regard to the contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan connected to its capabilities? The subquestions leading up to the following research question, which captures the entire aim of this research:

'To what extent is Kingdon’s theory on multiple streams applicable in the context of foreign policy decision-making, explained by an illustration of the case study of the Netherlands government its policy with regard to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan between 2011 and 2016?'

The research question is derived from academic discussions surrounding the applicability of Kingdon outside of its domestic nation state context. This is noted in the discussions on the theory in chapter 1, since Kingdon himself has made no attempts to test the theory outside the domestic nation state context of the United States (see: theoretical framework). The application of Kingdon in the field of foreign policymaking is relatively under-researched. There are however two dissertations (see: research design — adaptations from other academic scholars), that are described in the research methodology, that use Kingdon’s multiple streams theory on a foreign policy context. Both note that that although the theory is foremost not regularly utilized, but should be, in a foreign policy context since it can provide an academic lens to gain new insights about the workings of the theory in a different setting. This was tested through a descriptive analysis against primary source material, to study patterns and processes in the agenda setting process that can be matched to

the theory. The theory in practical terms relates to the policy, problem and political stream, as well as the role and influence of other stakeholders and events, such as policy entrepreneurs, communities, focusing events and policy windows. Primary source material were divided into the international and national level, since developments within the multilateral setting of the United Nations are different from those at the national level of the Netherlands government.

The introduction of this thesis contains a description of the local conditions in South Sudan, the international context of the engagement efforts of the international community, as well as in which context the Netherlands government is situated. This divide is made to understand the context of the engagement from each level, as well as the fact that the underlying dynamics are different. The theoretical framework contains the basis of this thesis, which is Kingdon’s multiple streams theory. Furthermore, the research design contains the methodological approach for both segments of this thesis on how research is conducted, as well as its limitations.

The second segment was an evaluative approach to assess to what extent are the Netherlands government its intentions with regard to the contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan connected to its capabilities. Relatively little is known about the effectiveness of the mission in publicly available sources. This is mainly due to absence and lack of an institutionalized comprehensive evaluative framework that assesses contributions to mission individually, regardless of the scale of the contribution. This evaluative segment is also of importance to understand more about the outcome of the agenda setting process, which is linked to the original recognition of a problem and the formulation of a solution. It hereby transcends the sole descriptive analysis of the policymaking and agenda setting process through the use of Kingdon’s multiple streams theory, and seeks to provide explanatory value of the policy outcome through an evaluative approach.

This approach was offered by the evaluation and guideline set for evaluations, more specifically the terms of reference, of the Policy and Operations Evaluation Department (IOB) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The terms of reference is not an academic toolkit, and contains insufficient elements to conduct evaluative research from an academic perspective. This thesis therefore sought to complement its deficiencies by including important remarks into the research methodology from Peter Swanborn, who has written extensively on evaluation research. Swanborn provides important remarks on aspects such as transparency of governmental interventions, the role of existing policies, how a policy should be adjusted to achieve the formulated objectives, the aspect of to what extent the government as a client of an evaluation is interested in the results due to possible political sensitivity, as well as the aspect of the political context in which research is undertaken, with regard to government interventions.

First segment

The first segment started with subquestion 1, which focused on what Kingdon’s theory is, and how it can best be used as a framework analyzing the agenda setting process in a government. It focuses on the different streams — the policy, problem and political stream as well as the role and influence of focusing events, policy windows, policy entrepreneurs and communities in the agenda setting process. The chapter also notes important discussions surrounding the application of Kingdon’s theory by other scholars, most notably, the question with regard to the fact that theory is foremost used in a domestic nation state context but might prove explanatory value in the foreign policy domain. Other important discussions and critiques include its limited capabilities of acknowledging the effects of media on the policymaking and agenda setting process, the issue of stream independency, and the fact that Kingdon’s multiple streams theory is mostly focused on explaining the policymaking process leading up to the formulation of a policy, but that the inclusion of the outcome might provide more comprehensive insight into the actual process. These discussions and critiques were included for the methodological approach for this thesis to enhance the level of applicability of Kingdon’s theory with regard to foreign policymaking.

Subquestion 2 focused on the procedures with regard to the Netherlands government its policy formulation process for a contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. The Netherlands government has to follow a pre-determined set of procedures through the so-called article 100 decision making process, as well as testing the feasibility of the outlined approach through a review framework, or toetsingskader. Subquestion 2 noted that several important revisions have been made to the mission between 2011 and 2016, both in terms of revisions on an international level with regard to the United Nations its mandate for the mission through its United Nations Security Council resolutions, as well as its effects for the Netherlands its contribution to the mission. The most revisions, both in terms of the mandate and contribution were made as a reaction to the outbreak of violence in South Sudan in 2013. Furthermore, another revision of the contribution was made on the level of the Netherlands government in 2015 due to the deteriorating medical conditions. It was then decided to formally reduce the contribution to 6 individuals. The Netherlands government remained however the intention to continue the broader engagement if the conditions would improve in the near future.

Subquestion 3 and subquestion 4 focus on the characteristics of Kingdon’s streams in the policymaking process of the Netherlands government its contribution to the mission, as wel as the role of policy entrepreneurs, communities, and focusing events in this process. The chapter provides an overview of the different streams that are in play, and focuses specifically on the period of the

inception of the United Nations Mission and the discussions in the House of Representatives in 2011 and 2012. It was herein observed that the agenda setting process is foremost pre-determined and artificial, and based on two anchor points — the article 100 procedure, which includes the decision making process in the House of Representatives as well as the review framework, or

toetsingskader, which serves as the assessment of both the intentions and decisions regarding the deployment of military abroad.

The policy stream, which contains the 'policy primeval soup', contains all policies that were considered in the House of Representatives. Notable policy options that were considered were the armament of the deployed personnel, a contribution to country support bases in South Sudan, the protection of churches and ethnic minorities and the inclusion of gender and woman's rights. A softening up process was also observed to increase the chances of implementation, as well as the role of policy entrepreneurs Jan Pronk and Bert Koenders, who are also both acknowledged in the official documentation for their efforts in South Sudan and the broader African continent. Both remain very vocal about the mission, Jan Pronk as former Minister of Development Cooperation and UN Special Representative for Sudan and Bert Koenders as the current Minister of Foreign Affairs. Furthermore, the role of policy and political communities should also be acknowledged. PAX for Peace is directly involved in the engagement efforts of the Netherlands government in South Sudan and has a strategic partnership with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs — even going as far as providing devil’s advocacy for draft policy proposals. Members of the House of Representatives serve as a political community, contributing to the refinement of policy proposals during the article 100 decision making process and aim for the inclusion of their respective political discourse in the outlined policy.

The problem stream, which involves problem recognition, issues or problems generally come to the attention to a government by means of feedback (see Kingdon: problem stream) In this regard, it was not a pre-existing policy that drew the attention of the Netherlands government to the issue at hand, it was the United Nations that encouraged Member States which includes the Netherlands, through Security Council resolution 1996 from 2011 to contribute to the newly incepted United Nations Mission in South Sudan. This requires an adaptation to Kingdon’s multiple streams theory, since the aspect of problem recognition is linked in this case to the notion of the international context and the multilateral setting of the United Nations. Feedback did not provide direct input for the formulation of a contribution, but quantitative indicators were mostly used to gain insight into the situation on the ground in South Sudan.

The politics stream, which covers the broader political discourse, another adoption is made to Kingdon’s theory. The broader political discourse herein not only covers developments, issues and problems on a national level, but also on an international level. Important herein is the fact that outlined proposal at the time was congruent with the national mood, fitted within the orientation of the Netherlands government and lacked organized opposition. Furthermore, no events such as the transition of the administration in 2012 resulted in radical shifts in the policy or contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan.

Two focusing events have been mentioned, and again, a divide is made with regard to events on an international level and on a national level. On an international level, most notably, the inception of the mission in 2011 can be considered a focusing event, as well as the outbreak of violence in 2013 and subsequent changes in the mandate. Focusing events on an international level can directly be linked to focusing events on a national level. The above mentioned focusing events with regard to the mission its inception required the attention of the Netherlands government formally under UN Security Council resolution 1996 which requested member states to contribute.

Concluding, a policy window in this regard is the yearly decision moment with regard to the renewal of the contribution to the mission. This is however an artificial construct within the article 100 decision making process. During this moment, all streams converge and all stakeholders are attended to the issue at hand.

The questions thus remains for the first segment to what extent Kingdon’s multiple streams theory is applicable in the context of foreign policymaking. Kingdon’s theory of multiple streams poses value in explaining foreign policy decision making. The above mentioned aspects of the multiple streams illustrate that it proves to be an important tool to divide not only different aspects of agenda setting and policymaking, but also analyze each stream separately. The role of different stakeholders is in this regard also acknowledged. The case of the Netherlands its contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan is a good illustration how a policymaking and agenda setting is conceived, especially with contextual developments on an international level, such as the United Nations, but also on a national level, in the House of Representatives.

Adaptions

The use of Kingdon’s multiple streams theory does however require some adaptations and the inclusion of critiques in its methodological approach for the analysis. The inclusion of critiques and other applications of the theory can best be considered as theory adaptation, as well as theory development, rather than limiting its explanatory value in the foreign policy domain. The most

important inclusions with regard to the foreign policy context is the broader methodological focus, herein dividing developments on an international level and on a national level.

An observation that has also been noted by other scholars, most notably by Zahariadis and Sabatier (see: theoretical framework — discussion on Kingdon’s multiple streams theory), is the issue of stream independency. the spillover between two streams, in this case between the policy stream and political stream is observable. Members of the House of Representatives as members of a political community work towards the refinement of policy proposals with policymakers during the article 100 decision making process. Their aim is to include their respective political discourse in the outlined policy. Government officials on the other hand include these remarks to broaden the political support for the outlined policy, while members of the policy community tend to remain relatively independent of political influence while working on the proposal. The spillover is not only perceptible, but also observable, according to interviewee X2. As long as this aspect is acknowledged, it would not directly threaten the explanatory value of Kingdon in a foreign policy context.

Second segment

The interviewing process focused on a number of aspects of the Netherlands government its contribution to the Mission in South Sudan. It herein assessed to what extent the intentions of the Netherlands government are connected to its capabilities. There are a number of important observations, which are mainly derived from the adaptation of remarks from Swanborn.

The preliminary remarks on this segment concluded based on the interviews and background discussions that there is no single comprehensive evaluation exercise into the effects and objectives on both the Netherlands government its engagement in South Sudan as well as its contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. The above mentioned description of the role of evaluations in the Netherlands government relates to one of Swanborn’s remarks that relate to the fact that evaluation exercises take insufficiently place. According to Swanborn, autonomous evaluation is in this regard vital to understand more about both the effectivity and efficiency of a government intervention or policy. This can to some extent be applied to the problem stream of Kingdon in which problems or issues come to the attention of policymakers by means of feedback. Since there is no format of comprehensive feedback, issues cannot directly be recognized and accounted for. Furthermore, Swanborn also remarks that when researching government interventions, one should account for the political context (see: terms of reference — Swanborn’s remarks on evaluation research).

The results from interviewing process further noted the fact that there is a significant distance between the intentions and capabilities of the Netherlands government its contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. Although all interviewees noted the importance of the mission and that the Netherlands should continue its contribution, as well as the fact that the currently deployed personnel is of value, although limited, adjustments should be made to realign the Netherlands government its dedicated capabilities to the match formulated intentions. There are some limitations in this respect, the current operational capacity, especially from the Dutch Ministry of Defence, limits readjustment of the contribution on the short term. Other limitations for this research that were observed was the likely presence of non directly observable policy strategies. This is in line with Swanborn his remark that full disclosure is often in nonconformity with policy objectives. Whether this is an issue of hidden or preconceived agendas, especially since the mission is noted for its politicized character, could not be independently verified.

The inclusion of remarks from Swanborn in the methodological approach with the terms of reference provide a more comprehensive insight into the aspect of how the intentions are matched tot the capabilities. The terms of reference alone would be insufficient in explaining how and to what extent the Netherlands government its intentions are connected to its capabilities. This is directly linked to an adaption from important discussions surrounding the applicability of Kingdon by Zahariadis (see: theoretical framework — discussion on Kingdon’s multiple streams theory). Kingdon traditionally applied the multiple streams theory to solely focus on the policy formulation process leading up to the formulation and adoption of a policy. This thesis sought to transcend Kingdon’s traditional focus, by including the adaptation from Zahariadis to focus on the outcome of the policymaking and agenda setting process.