Toma de Decisiones

This chapter will answer the second research question, focusing on how the Netherlands formulated its policy and contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. It will herein focus on the procedures with regard to the decision making process and especially on the so-called article 100 letter, which outlines the details with regard to the current situation in the country, the government its considerations, the involved risks and the proposed contribution of personnel to the mission.

In order for the Netherlands government to contribute armed forces to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan, a specific set of procedures has to be followed. This decision making process is known as the so-called article 100 procedure. The Dutch government has the obligation in the article 100 procedure to inform the Parliament well in advance about the deployment of armed forces promote and/or maintain the international legal order, which includes the provision of humanitarian aid in the event of armed conflict (Parlement, 2017). The procedures for this comprehensive decision making process are outlined in the so-called Toetsingskader (Parlement, 2017), which is a review framework used to assess both the intentions and decision of the Netherlands government when it is considering military deployment abroad. In this review framework, questions are raised with regards to the grounds of participation, other nations that are contributing to the mission, the political aspects of desirability and feasibility, the attention to development cooperation and reconstruction, the mandate, a description of the role and influence of the Netherlands government its contribution on the mission, the risks, the duration, the decision moment for renewal, what instruments will be used in the approach (diplomacy, defense and development) as well as budgetary requirements (Ducheine & van den Bosch, 2014)

Following the article 100 decision making process, both the ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense collectively formulate a policy letter on what grounds and how it intends to contribute to a particular mission. The Dutch parliament does not hold the mandate to decide against participation, but as stated earlier, the government is obliged to inform about the details and grounds for participation in a mission through a so-called article 100 letter. This letter delineates the details and considerations of the government about the upcoming contribution to the mission abroad (Ducheine & van den Bosch, 2014). After the letter has been delivered to the Parliament, a debate is held in the House of Representatives to discuss the details of the engagement, as well as to broaden support to minimize political opposition (Providing for Peacekeeping, 2014). At the end of the debate, political parties have to state their position on the matter, and the debate is concluded.

Article 100 letter with regard to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan

This paragraph will discuss the so-called article 100 letter which outlines the Netherlands government its contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. It will focus on the objective and content of the contribution, as well as other important aspects in terms of feasibility.

The article 100 letter with regard to the Netherlands government its engagement in South Sudan was officially addressed to Parliament on 30 September 2011, and focused on all aspects of the earlier mentioned Toetsingskader, or review framework (Ducheine & van den Bosch, 2014). The letter opens by noting the inception of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan on 8 July 2011 and the importance of the promotion of stability in the region. The letter notes that, in addition to the bilateral engagement which focuses on development cooperation, the Netherlands government also decided to contribute personnel to the United Nations Mission. It explicitly states that the Netherlands its contribution meets a specific demand, and is in full compliance with the outlined integrated engagement of the Mission, as well as the mission its mandate (Tweede Kamer, 2011b).

South Sudan is also designated by the Netherlands government as one of five fragile states which are eligible for bilateral development cooperation. In this partnership, the Netherlands government focuses on the engagement of two of its own foreign policy strategies which were discussed in the international context of this thesis, which is the strategy on security and development in fragile states and the spearhead policy on security and rule of law (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2011). An important aspect of the bilateral engagement is its focus on state- building and the functioning of state structures to reduce the risk of conflict. The Netherlands its contribution to the mission contains a civil and military component. The contribution consisted of: • Fifteen to twenty Royal Netherlands Marechaussee for police capacity building;

• Four police officers for police capacity building;

• Two military liaison officers for the cooperation with Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA); • A number of liaisons for deployment on the headquarters of UNMISS in Juba;

It notes that the maximum contribution of the Netherlands government is 30 individuals, for an initial period of two years, provided that the United Nations Security Council renews the mandate for the mission after a year. It concludes by stating that at the end of the 2-year period, the Netherlands government reassesses if the extension of the contribution and engagement is both feasible and eligible, on the basis of international politics, military and value acceptance in terms of budgetary considerations (Tweede Kamer, 2011b). This is also in line with Kingdon’s argument that a policy has a good chance of being implemented (in this case renewal) if it passes certain requirements (Kingdon, 2011), which will further be discussed in the analysis section.

The outline of the overall feasibility in the letter is important for the second segment of this thesis. It combines both stating the issues at hand with the given approach to tackle them. The article 100 letter notes that while the mandate for the mission is comprehensive and the expectations of both the local and international community are high, the mission itself is still in a start-up phase. It will only be possible to assess whether the United Nations Mission in South Sudan has found a way to quantify the overall objectives of the mandate in practice on the longer term with sustainable results. Benchmarks and indicators will be formulated and put together in the mission plan with a report to the United Nations Security Council for every four months (Tweede Kamer, 2011b)

The main contribution of the Netherlands personnel government to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan is focused on capacity building in the South Sudanese police, military liaison and representation at the headquarters of UNMISS in Juba. The latter signifies the importance the Netherlands government sees in the promotion of Dutch interests in the leadership of the mission. The engagement efforts fit in the Netherlands government its objectives to contribute to the promotion of the international legal order and, among other aspects, meet the need for specific expertise at the leadership of the mission.

The article 100 letter outlines the regional development in and around South Sudan, noting that the country remains relatively unstable after becoming independent of the north, and faces a significant challenge to guarantee a basic function state with all of its provisions (Tweede Kamer, 2011b). This is also noted as one of the prime grounds for participation in the mission. The objective, as formulated in the letter, is that South Sudan is on the long term self-supporting and capable in guaranteeing stability, security and economic development in both the country, as well as the region.

It further notes that the outlined objectives require a long term process of state-building. The associated risks with the separation of South Sudan have not disappeared, which means that the risk of both internal and external conflict and escalation of violence remains a feasible possibility. Another risk that is emphasized in the letter is that the medical facilities in South Sudan, both for UNMISS personnel as well as for foreign aid workers, is insufficient, but that measures would be taken for the Dutch continent that the situation remained accountable (Tweede Kamer, 2011b).

In terms of budgetary requirements, the total costs of the Dutch contribution to UNMISS are 1.8 million euro per year as of 2012, from which 1.4 million is accounted to the defense budget and 0.4 million for the budget of the Ministry of Security and Justice.

The next paragraph will discuss significant changes of the Netherlands government its contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan between 2011-2016.

Changes in Netherlands government its contribution to UNMISS between 2011-2016

The initial contribution of the Netherlands government to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan was formulated for a period of 2 years, starting in 2011. Due to the outbreak of violence in South Sudan in December 2013, the contribution to the mission was extended in February to November 2014 (Tweede Kamer, 2014a). The Netherlands government decided for this shorter period due the fact that the United Nations Security Council did not reached an agreement upon a new resolution and mandate for the mission at the time. The article 100 letter from September 2014 announced the extension of the contribution of the Netherlands government to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan until February 2015 (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2014). This was again due to the fact that changes were expected in the United Nations its mandate for the mission. This related to Kingdon’s theory of multiple streams, since changes in the mandate can be considered agenda setting, in which a certain issue government officials, as well as people outside the executive branch, pay serious attention to at any given time. This is also the first stage in the policy process before policy is formulated (Kingdon, 2011:3).

The article 100 letter from September 2014 notes that the previously achieved results by the engagement efforts of the international community, UNMISS and in particular capacity building of South Sudanese government institutions were partly nullified due to the outbreak of violence in the country as well as the level of complicity of the central authorities in the escalation of violence. As a reaction, the Netherlands government decided to immediately halt bilateral financial assistance programs to the South Sudanese government. The Netherlands government decided however to remain engaged to the mission, citing that in light of the deteriorating situation, the mission fulfills a crucial role in supporting the civilian population of South Sudan (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2014).

In practical terms, the Netherlands government its contribution still consisted of 30 persons. Their duties radically shifted from capacity building of government institutions and building capacity in South Sudan its police forces to the protection of civilians. The majority of the contingent was therefore stationed at protection of civilians sites. They are mostly engaging in onsite advisory and oversight tasks. It was also decided to place the existing Royal Netherlands Marechaussee in the staff of the United Nations Police, since it would allow to contribute more on a strategic rather than operational level to the mission.

The article 100 letter also announced targeted sanctions, in accordance with the European External Action Service, which serves as the foreign ministry and diplomatic corps for the European

Union, against South Sudanese individuals that were to some extent involved in the outbreak of violence or considered responsible in human rights violations (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2014).

The article 100 letter from 2015 notes similar concerns with regard to the humanitarian situation and the escalation of violence in many regions in South Sudan. The Netherlands government chose, after two shorter renewals of its contribution, for a one-year renewal. It is noted that the Netherlands contributes directly to the main priority under the current mandate, which is the protection of civilians. The letter notes that the United Nations are acknowledging the great importance of the efforts and expertise of the Dutch contribution to the Mission and that, because of its pro-active stance, it creates a clear added value (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2015).

The Netherlands government notes in the letter that it anticipated no significant changes in the mandate in the short term and that its contribution and engagement efforts were still required. The number of contributed personnel to the Mission under this article 100 letter remained unchanged. The letter notes the importance of flexibility in the contribution, since the Netherlands government is striving to best match its contribution to the Mission its direct needs and objectives to make the most optimal contribution. Flexibility also allows the Netherlands government to ascertain strategic positions in the mission more easily, especially with regard to UNPOL its staff on its headquarters in Juba. The issue of flexibility in terms of matching its contribution to the mission its direct needs and objectives is in this regard important, since it relates to the second segment of this thesis which focuses on this particular aspect (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2015).

The letter also notes that the renewal creates clarity about the Netherlands government its commitment to remain involved in South Sudan and the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. It further notes with regard to the current situation in South Sudan that the process leading to a political agreement between the coalition, which is led by President Salva Kiir and the opposition, which is led by Riek Machar, is still facing severe difficulties and that a comprehensive solution remained out of sight. The overall security situation remained fragile, and the violent events in 2013 and the beginning of 2014 have resulted in the extensive polarization between different ethnic groups and fueled the habits of revanche (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2015).

The article 100 letter from 2016 brought significant change in the contribution. It however states that the grounds for participation have not changed significantly since the previous extension in 2015. The letter notes similar concerns voiced in 2015, with regard to the humanitarian situation, with a special emphasis on the security of protection of civilian-sites. The main objective remained the protection of civilians and the promotion of stability and development in South Sudan. Due to

the delayed implementation of the peace agreement, with no functioning South Sudanese transitional government in place, the Netherlands government still decided against cooperating with the government to promote state capacity and institution building (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2016a).

The letters notes the inception of a Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission, or JMEC, which is an oversight body that oversees the implementation of the peace agreement that had been signed in August 2015. The letter further states that the ceasefire agreement has been violated a number of times since its implementation and that it is very likely that the violations would continue (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2016a).

The significant change with regard to the contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan relates to the reduction in staff of the contingent, which as of 2015 consists of 6 staff officers and 1 individual police officer. This decision was made in December 2015, stating that deteriorating medical conditions, and more specifically, that the United Nations could not guarantee its medical standards on a number of locations outside Juba. Although first line medical facilities were available, the response time for post-medical treatment was exceeding the required norms. This was due to the absence of dedicated medevac helicopters, the flight safety assurance from all parties in the conflict in South Sudan and the ability of the local pilots to fly at night. The function and duties of deployed personnel could sometimes require to go on patrols from a long distance outside of Juba. The biggest reduction therefore impacted the deployed individual police officers (IPOs) who had to go on these long distance patrols. The article 100 letter notes that as soon the conditions will permit it, the IPO contribution will be resumed. It concludes by stating that the protection of civilians within the mandate of UNMISS is important, especially at protection of civilian sites (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, 2016a).

This paragraph discussed shifts in the Netherlands government its contribution to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. The most important shifts were in 2013 as a response to the outbreak of violence and changed mandate, and in December 2015, when it was decided to significantly reduce the number of deployed personnel due to the medical conditions and standards in South Sudan, mostly relates to the deteriorating medevac capabilities of the mission. The next chapter will discuss a number of the above mentioned developments and policy decisions in the analysis of the multiple streams, the role of focusing events and policy entrepreneurs and policy communities.