La cuestión de la edad penal

Characteristics

For the transport of raw materials to construction industry plants usually rather large vessels may be used. This will be particularly possible when the plants are located along rivers or in ports accessible to those large vessels and when gravel and/or sand from river locations is the source of those cargo flows.

In the transport to / from large infrastructure projects both small and medium-sized motor vessels are used with the occasional push barge. Because the locations of construction sites vary in the course of time, different vessel types might be useful in different projects.

In the market segment of transport of river or see sand, however, a substantial number of specific IWT vessels operate that are also used in the process of mining / pumping up the sand. Those vessels, which are active primarily in the Netherlands and Belgium, are characteristic for this particular IWT market segment.

Generally this type of transport is not time-critical and could be planned and scheduled.

Supply chain organisation

The supply chains of material (mainly gravel) from mining / win locations to production plants which manufacture specific materials for construction are comparatively simple and the geographic patterns are fixed.

Construction industry:

 Size 2007 in EU27: 28,529 million tonne km

 The market segment accounts for 19% of the total IWT market

 IWT modal share is 7%

 Heavily affected by crisis, the impacts will take long to recover

 Drivers are the demographics and policies on gravel mining along waterways, shift towards mining from sea or sources abroad

 Increase in use of recycled materials

 The market consists of two main sub segments:

o the transport of sand and gravel to large infrastructure and building projects where it is directly used

o bulk transport to building material manufacturing plants where it serves as raw material in the production

 In the first market sub segment special vessels may be used that also help in the mining of gravel (e.g. mining of river gravel or sea gravel), otherwise the fleet consists of medium- and large sized dry cargo bulk vessels

 The EU market in this segment is dominated by the domestic markets

Most plants are located close to waterways and the market share of IWT in this supply chain is very significant in countries with a dense waterway network (e.g.

the Netherlands). The IWT services required in this particular market segment are frequently contracted via the spot market although a sizeable part of the transport volumes is also channelled through the term market. Some of the raw material trading and production companies have their own fleet of vessels to ensure transport capacity.

The supply chain of sand to infrastructure projects or large housing projects is more complex because those projects will not necessarily be located close to waterways. Although the destinations for the time being are fixed in the longer term this market does not know fixed destinations. In many instances this type of IWT activity is strongly connected to the (planning of the) infrastructure project itself and therefore, the marketing and pricing of the transport flows is primarily done in the form of long term contracts with the contractor of the infrastructure project or the builder of the project.

Developments

The construction industry is still heavily affected by the financial and economic crisis. Currently (end of 2011) cargo flows transported by IWT are about 15%-20% below the levels observed in 2007 in Western Europe. IWT is primarily employed for large shipments of sand, gravel and other bulk commodities due to transport cost advantages. Apart from minimum transport volumes the vicinity of waterway access is required to achieve competitive cost levels. Large shipments arise in particular between mines and locations with extensive consumption of raw materials. Despite less seaport related transport patterns the density of the waterway network contributes to high IWT shares on the Rhine and North-South corridors. Railway is an alternative for transport of larger volumes with origin / destination distant to waterway. Road transport is favourable for shipments with smaller volumes.

The crisis may have a much more lasting and structural impact on this particular market segment due to more restrictive financing requirements and cuts in government expenditures on infrastructure projects.

It is therefore expected that the impact of the crisis will be felt in the medium term as well. It is questionable whether in 2020 the size of cargo flows will have fully recovered from the decline which occurred in 2010 and 2011. In the longer term more structural drivers with regards to the size and composition of cargo flows, are the development of the population and the depletion of the gravel mining locations along the main rivers (such as the Rhine and the Meuse) and the increase in the use of recycled materials. Although the development of the population (aging, continued immigration) indicates that in the longer term the market will still not show a high growth, the depletion of the current mining locations and the use of more recycled material are more difficult to judge in their effect on the use of IWT. Looking for alternative sourcing locations (e.g. on sea) may result in an increase of average distances of transport. This development shall make the transport more attractive to IWT. However, the increased use of recycled materials could work, but in the opposite direction.

Table 3.7 Transport demand by the construction industry; performance by IWT (in bill. Tkm) 2007 2020 (min) 2020 (max) 2040 (min) 2040 (max)

Total 29 28 30 31 35

Index (2007) 100 100 105 109 122

Medium term (2020): Just as the tanker transport market the transport markets for the construction industry showed a lagged reaction to the financial and economic crisis. However, by the end of 2010 freight volumes showed a substantial decline. This sector is much more profoundly affected than other sectors by the financial and economic crisis because:

a) it suffers not only from a general consumer demand reduction but it also has to cope with the impact of a very restrained credit and mortgage market and

b) a decline of government spending on infrastructure because of the bailing out of banks, budget deficits and concerns about debt levels versus GDP.

It is considered unlikely that freight volumes will return to the levels of 2007 prior to 2020.

Long term (2040): In the long run, similar to the agribulk sector, freight volumes will depend on the development and composition of the population in the future and the level of welfare.

Generally these trends are negative so it is also expected that the IWT freight volumes will not show a drastic increase after 2020.

Environmental requirements and taxation with respect to the mining of sand and gravel are expected to alter the present main sources of mining (often local and / or along rivers such as the Rhine, the Danube and the Meuse) these raw materials.

There may also be an increased level. Substitution of sand and gravel by other building materials may lead to a change in the type of cargo flows.