The conception of the dangerous offender in the 19th and first half of the 20th century that I have sketched above is somewhat different to the view of dangerous offenders today. There are of course, recurring themes which I will highlight, but a change in the attitude of the community as a whole, not just in the UK but across Western democratic nations, has had a significant impact on the view of dangerousness and the way in which dangerous offenders are managed within the criminal justice system. Crime and punishment has become one of the defining political topics of the modern era, with political parties across the spectrum acutely conscious of the need to appear to be clear and robust on the issue. This is typified by the famous tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime speech from Tony Blair, in his
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second address to the Labour Party as the leader at their conference in Brighton in 1995. The rebranding of Labour into New Labour saw the party’s position on criminal justice policy shift significantly to the right, politically speaking, which could be viewed as a perception by the Labour Party that voters support political parties who take a tough stance on crime.
The political influence over criminal justice policy, and specifically in the area of sentencing and punishment, has partly been fuelled by the perceived increase in the crime rate and an increase in the fear of crime by the public. There is an argument that has been made by Pettit and Braithwaite that the fear of crime should have an impact over the severity of punishments and that the concerns of the public should prompt politicians to act accordingly. (Braithwaite & Pettit, 1990 p153) This approach would certainly be counter to the principle of proportionality in sentencing which I will look at shortly however, it has long been recognised that the fear of crime is an important issue and perceived risks associated with crime is something that has been measured by the British Crime Survey for over 25 years. The Crime Survey of England and Wales (previously known as the British Crime Survey) is used in the UK today alongside official government crime statistics to give a broader picture of crime in the UK as it captures crimes that are not reported or recorded. The survey manages this by sampling UK citizens and asking them about their experience of crime, including the fear of crime and their perception of the level of crime. This creates a vital source of information in addition to the actual numbers of recorded crime, and tells us what the community feels about crime and how crime impacts on their lives. In this context it is interesting to note that despite crime rates having fallen substantially since the mid- 1990s, the percentage of people who would feel very unsafe walking home in the dark has
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remained broadly the same since the early 1980s. 1 (Recent crime statistics published by the Office for National Statistics supports the view that crime has been falling since a peak in the mid-1990s, despite figures released in 2017 and 2018 which suggest that there has been an increase in the levels of police recorded crime of 10%. These statistics however, are not designated as National Statistics due to problems with recording the data. It is partly due to changes in the requirements in recording this data that could account for the 10% increase. There is some debate as to whether there has been an increase in the level of some
offences such as violent knife crime in certain areas of the UK, although a study by Cardiff University suggests that violent crime has remained static since 2016. (Office for National Statistics, 2017; Sivarajasingam, et al., 2018)) Setting these issues aside, the disconnect between the level of crime and the fear of crime tells us that the fear of becoming a victim of crime has remained steady despite the evidence that the probability of actually become a victim of crime has decreased.
The Sentencing Council for England and Wales demonstrates this decline in both recorded crime and incident of crime according to the Crime Survey of England and Wales, in the graph below.
1 One of the questions that the Crime Survey for England and Wales asks is whether the respondent would feel
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As the graph shows crime in England and Wales peaked in 1995 and has been decreasing in the UK since that time. This trend in crime rates has also been seen across the industrialised world. The USA, for example, experienced this phenomenon earlier than the UK and has seen falling crime rates since 1990. During the same period the prison population in the UK has doubled. Since 1993 the number of people residing in prisons in the UK has risen from 44,246 to 86,048 in 2012 and now hovers just over 85,000 as of January 2016. (Minstry of Justice, 2016) It could be suggested that as there is a direct causal link between the
increased prison population and the crime rate falling. Thus leading to a view, popular with some elements of the media and political parties, that the decrease in the crime rate is due to a policy decision to take a tougher stance on crime and punishment, and by tougher I mean an increased in the use of prison as a form of punishment. It is however, generally accepted that the increase in prison population is not a valid explanation for falling crime rates. This is primarily because the fall in crime rates during this period is a global
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phenomenon and not confined to countries with high, and increasing, prison populations, such as the UK and the USA. Crime rates in Scandinavian countries has also fallen or
plateaued, without seeing corresponding rise in the prison population.2 It seems that the fall in the number of recorded crimes is a trend that it being experienced across the developed world and assuming that there is a causal link with increased use of imprisonment as a punishment is too simplistic an explanation for this substantial reduction in the incidence of crime. This is relevant to the discussion on the punishment of dangerous offenders because there is a view that the only way to effectively deal with dangerous offenders is to put them in prison in ever increasing numbers and that if this does not happen then the community will be at risk. Indeed this is a view that Duff wrestles with. (Duff, 2001p164-175) However, if it is the case that the increased use of punishments such as imprisonment has no impact or a limited impact on offending rates, particularly in relation to dangerous crimes, then this needs to be taken into account when constructing a methodology for the punishment and sentencing of dangerous offenders.
If the statistical evidence shows us that crime rates have broadly been declining since 1995 and there is a general acceptance that this is not as a result of an increase in the use of prison as a form of punishment then what can explain this phenomena? As you would expect there are a number of theories as to why crime rates are decreasing across Western democracies. It could be tempting to suggest that this is due to a change in the style and approach to policing. Implementation of approaches such as a zero tolerance seen in parts of the USA and the UK are not universal across all countries that have experienced a reduction in recorded crime so it seems unlikely that this could offer an explanation.
2
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Other explanations have focused in improved technology which has had an impact on areas such as domestic burglary and car crime. Improvements in car locking systems, domestic security and the widespread use of technology such as CCTV have made the successful commission of such crimes harder. It has also been suggested that improved technology has shifted crime more toward cybercrimes, which may be more hidden and as such under reported. The increased availability and affordability of many consumer
products may also be a contributing factor for the overall reduction in many crimes, a theory that fits with statistics which are showing a less pronounced reduction in recorded crimes against the person compared with crimes that come within the theft category.
A more radical theory has also been emerging over the last few years which is considering the impact that exposure to lead may have on brain development. It is known that exposure of children to lead at a young age does have an impact on development and can lead to lower intelligence and increased violent tendencies. This impact takes twenty years or so to manifest. The reduction in the use of lead in products such as paint and also in petrol which was seen in the 1970s and 80s could be an explanation as to the reduction in crime rates that are now being experienced by developed countries. (House of Commons, 2013)
A publication from the Crime Survey of England and Wales, extracted below,
summarises some of the possible factors that could have led to this reduction in crime over the period between the mid-1990s and the present day, and indeed it may be the case that all of these factors work in combination to impact on crime rates.
Economic activity, such as consumption, output of the economy, the unemployment rate and the proportion of females in the labour force.
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During 1990-1992 the UK was suffering a recession. This led to economic hardship which can be linked to increases in levels of crime in the early 90s. From 1996/97 onwards the economy was growing, which is thought to have contributed to the decrease in property crime since the peak in 1995.
Demographic variables, such as population size, proportion of young males in the population, divorce rates.
Research has also shown that the numbers of males aged 15-24 in the population are associated with increases in recorded property crime rates – this demographic group is most likely to commit crimes. (Jansson, 2007)
What is interesting of course within the context of this thesis, is that even with this fall in the crime rates the fear of crime remains high and this will have an influence on the way criminals are dealt with in the criminal justice system and in particular dangerous criminals, in order to satisfy the public that something is being done about crime. Whatever the explanation for the reduction in recorded crime which has been seen across developed countries since the 1990s, there does seem to be a general consensus that the increase in prison population and the use of ever harsher forms of monitoring and community sentences is not the main factor that is influencing crime reduction. It is most likely there are multiple social and economic influencing factors working in combination which is having an impact on the crime rates. (Levitt, 2004)