Nuevas tecnologías

THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTUNTY-FIRST CENTURYRY

Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences. Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences.  Nu

 Nuclclear ear wweapeaponons as are re a paa part rt of of tetechchnnolologogyy, bu, but tet techchnnolologogy y hhas as ououtgtgrowrown n nnuuclclear ear wweapeaponons js juust st as as iit ht has as ououtgtgrorowwn n othother er lless ess crcruude ide innststrurummenents ts of of powpowerer.. Technology continues to grow and to liberate mankind from the constraints of the past. Compared with the revolutions which technology is bringing to Technology continues to grow and to liberate mankind from the constraints of the past. Compared with the revolutions which technology is bringing to  peo

 peoplple ae annd id innststiitututitionons as alll l ovover er ththe we worlorld, od, ouur qr quuarrarrelels ws wiith th ththe Re Ruussssiianans as are re smsmalall l mmototes es iin n ththe ee eyye oe of f hhiiststororyy..

The most revolutionary aspect of technology is its mobility. Anybody can learn it. It jumps easily over barriers of race and language. And its mobility The most revolutionary aspect of technology is its mobility. Anybody can learn it. It jumps easily over barriers of race and language. And its mobility

is still increasing. The new technology of microchips and computer software is learned much faster than the old technology of coal and iron. It took three is still increasing. The new technology of microchips and computer software is learned much faster than the old technology of coal and iron. It took three generations of misery for the older industrial countries to master the technology of coal and iron. The new industrial countries of East Asia, South Korea generations of misery for the older industrial countries to master the technology of coal and iron. The new industrial countries of East Asia, South Korea and Singapore and Taiwan, mastered the new technology and made the jump from poverty to wealth in a single generation. That is the reason why I call and Singapore and Taiwan, mastered the new technology and made the jump from poverty to wealth in a single generation. That is the reason why I call the new

the new technology technology a technology a technology of hope. It offers to the poof hope. It offers to the poor of the Earth a short-cut to weaor of the Earth a short-cut to wealthlth, a way of gettin, a way of getting g {271} {271} rich by clrich by cleverness raeverness rather thanther than  by ba

 by back-brck-breakeakiinng lg laboaborr. Th. The essee essenntitial al comcomponponenent of tht of the new te new techechnnolologogy iy is ins infformormatatiionon. Inf. Inforormmatatiion ton travravelels ls liigghht. Unt. Unlliike coal ke coal anand ird ironon, it i, it is avs avaiaillablablee wherever there are people with brains to make use of it. Not only in East Asia but all over the planet, technology and the information on which it wherever there are people with brains to make use of it. Not only in East Asia but all over the planet, technology and the information on which it depends can be effective instruments for achieving a more just distribution of wealth among the nations of mankind. Without the hope of economic depends can be effective instruments for achieving a more just distribution of wealth among the nations of mankind. Without the hope of economic  ju

 juststiice, ce, mmanankikinnd cand cannnot rot realealiiststiicalcallly hy hope ope ffor lor lastastiinng pg peaceace. Ie. If f wwe ve viiew ew ththe we worlorld wd wiith th a cera certataiin ln lararggenenesess of s of vviiewew, we , we see tsee techechnnolologogy ay as ths the ge giifft of t of GGodod which may make it possible for us to live at peace with our neighbors on this crowded planet.

which may make it possible for us to live at peace with our neighbors on this crowded planet.

Such a largeness of view is conspicuous by its absence in the thinking of the Reagan administration. I dislike many things which this administration Such a largeness of view is conspicuous by its absence in the thinking of the Reagan administration. I dislike many things which this administration has done and said, but I dislike most of all the mean-spirited attempts to stop the export of technology and hamper the spread of information. These has done and said, but I dislike most of all the mean-spirited attempts to stop the export of technology and hamper the spread of information. These attempts reveal a mentality which is incompatible with any decent respect for the opinions of mankind. The idea that the United States should try to keep attempts reveal a mentality which is incompatible with any decent respect for the opinions of mankind. The idea that the United States should try to keep the Soviet Union in a state of technological backwardness excludes the possibility of comprehensive arms-control agreements; the Soviet Union will not the Soviet Union in a state of technological backwardness excludes the possibility of comprehensive arms-control agreements; the Soviet Union will not negotiate upon any terms other than equality. The idea that the United States can play Nanny to the rest of the world and constrain the flow of  negotiate upon any terms other than equality. The idea that the United States can play Nanny to the rest of the world and constrain the flow of  technological goodies to reward our friends and punish our enemies is a puerile delusion. Technology is God's gift to all nations alike. The rest of the technological goodies to reward our friends and punish our enemies is a puerile delusion. Technology is God's gift to all nations alike. The rest of the world will quickly learn whatever we attempt to keep hidden. And we will quickly lose the international goodwill which a more generous attitude has world will quickly learn whatever we attempt to keep hidden. And we will quickly lose the international goodwill which a more generous attitude has earned us in the past. If we are to lead the world toward a hopeful future, we must understand that technology is a part of the planetary environment, to earned us in the past. If we are to lead the world toward a hopeful future, we must understand that technology is a part of the planetary environment, to  be

 be shshareared ld liike ke aiair ar annd wd watater er wwiith th ththe re resest ot of f mmanankikinnd. Td. To to try ry to to mmononopoopolliizze te techechnnolologogy y iis as as ss stutupipid ad as ts tryryiinng g to to mmononopoopolliizze ae aiir.r.

Technology as a liberating force in human affairs is more important than weapons. And that is why scientists speak about international political Technology as a liberating force in human affairs is more important than weapons. And that is why scientists speak about international political  pro

 problblemems ws wiith th an an auauththoriority ty wwhhiich ch {2{272} 72} ggoes oes ffar ar beybeyonond td thheieir cr comompetpetenence ace as bos bommb-bub-buiillderders. Fs. Fortorty y yyearears as aggo, so, scicienentitiststs bs becaecamme se suuddeddennlly y iinnfflluuenentitial al iinn  pol

 poliititical cal lliiffe becae becauuse thse they ey wwerere the the one onlly pey peoplople we whho kno knew hew how tow to mo make bake bomombs. Tbs. Todaoday wy we can e can clclaiaim m polpoliititical cal iinnfflluuenence fce for a beor a betttter rer reaseasonon. W. We cle claiaimm influence because we have practical experience in operating a genuinely international enterprise. We have friends and colleagues, people we know how influence because we have practical experience in operating a genuinely international enterprise. We have friends and colleagues, people we know how to deal with, in the Soviet Union and in the People's Republic of China. We know what it takes to collaborate on a practical level with Soviet scientists, to deal with, in the Soviet Union and in the People's Republic of China. We know what it takes to collaborate on a practical level with Soviet scientists, the bureaucratic obstacles that have to be overcome, the possibilities and limitations of personal contact. We know what it takes to operate an the bureaucratic obstacles that have to be overcome, the possibilities and limitations of personal contact. We know what it takes to operate an astronomical observatory in Chile, to launch an X-ray satellite from Tanzania, and to organize the eradication of the smallpox virus from its last astronomical observatory in Chile, to launch an X-ray satellite from Tanzania, and to organize the eradication of the smallpox virus from its last stronghold in Ethiopia. Unlike our political leaders, we have first-hand knowledge of a business which is not merely multinational but in its nature stronghold in Ethiopia. Unlike our political leaders, we have first-hand knowledge of a business which is not merely multinational but in its nature international. We know how difficult it is to get a piece of apparatus to work in the Soviet Union or in China, but we also know how with patience it can international. We know how difficult it is to get a piece of apparatus to work in the Soviet Union or in China, but we also know how with patience it can  be

 be dondone. Ae. As ss scicienentitiststs ws we we work ork evevery ery day day iin n an an iinnteternrnatatiiononal al comcommmuunniityty. T. Thhat at iis ws whhy y wwe ae are re nnot ot afafraraiid of d of ththe te techechnniical cal didiffffiicuculltities es of of ararmms cs conontrtrolol. T. Thhat at iiss why we are appalled by the narrow-mindedness and ignorance of our political leaders. And that is why we are not shy to raise our voices, to teach why we are appalled by the narrow-mindedness and ignorance of our political leaders. And that is why we are not shy to raise our voices, to teach mankind the hopeful lessons that we have learned from the practice of our trade.

mankind the hopeful lessons that we have learned from the practice of our trade.

It usually takes fifty to a hundred years for fundamental scientific discoveries to become embodied in technological applications on a large enough It usually takes fifty to a hundred years for fundamental scientific discoveries to become embodied in technological applications on a large enough scale to have a serious impact on human life. One often hears it said that technological revolutions today occur more rapidly than they did in the past. But scale to have a serious impact on human life. One often hears it said that technological revolutions today occur more rapidly than they did in the past. But the apparent acceleration of technological change is probably an illusion caused by perspective. Recent events are seen in greater detail than historical the apparent acceleration of technological change is probably an illusion caused by perspective. Recent events are seen in greater detail than historical events of a century ago, and the loss of detail makes the more remote technological changes appear to proceed more slowly. In reality, the time elapsed events of a century ago, and the loss of detail makes the more remote technological changes appear to proceed more slowly. In reality, the time elapsed  bet

 betwween Meen Maxaxwwelelll's equ's equatatiionons and ths and the lare largge-sce-scalale elee electctririffiicatcatiion on {{273273} } of ciof citities waes was no los no lonngger ther than than the tie timme betwe between Teen Thhomompsopsonn's dis's discovcovery oery of f ththee electron and the worldwide spread of television, or between Pasteur's discovery of microbes and the general availability of antibiotics. In spite of the electron and the worldwide spread of television, or between Pasteur's discovery of microbes and the general availability of antibiotics. In spite of the hustle and bustle of modern life, it still takes two or three generations to convert a new scientific idea into a major social revolution.

hustle and bustle of modern life, it still takes two or three generations to convert a new scientific idea into a major social revolution.

If it is true that the interval between discovery and large-scale application is still of the order of seventy years, this means that we should be able to If it is true that the interval between discovery and large-scale application is still of the order of seventy years, this means that we should be able to foresee with some reliability the main technological changes that are likely to occur up to the middle of the twenty-first century. Until about the year  foresee with some reliability the main technological changes that are likely to occur up to the middle of the twenty-first century. Until about the year  205

2050, 0, large-scalarge-scale le technologitechnologies es wiwill be growinll be growing out of dg out of discoveries whiiscoveries which have alreadch have already beey been n mmade. ade. Only afOnly after 2ter 2050 050 are are we liwe likely to encokely to encounter unter  technologies based on principles unknown to our contemporary science.

technologies based on principles unknown to our contemporary science.

Here are my guesses for the dominant new technologies of the next seventy years. I look at contemporary science and see three main areas of  Here are my guesses for the dominant new technologies of the next seventy years. I look at contemporary science and see three main areas of  existing knowledge not yet fully exploited. These are the same three areas which I invoked for the design of the Astrochicken spacecraft in Chapter 10. existing knowledge not yet fully exploited. These are the same three areas which I invoked for the design of the Astrochicken spacecraft in Chapter 10. The first is molecular biology, the science of genetics and cellular physiology at the molecular level. The second is neurophysi-ology, the science of  The first is molecular biology, the science of genetics and cellular physiology at the molecular level. The second is neurophysi-ology, the science of  complex information-processing networks and brains. The third is space physics, the exploration of the solar system and the physical environment of the complex information-processing networks and brains. The third is space physics, the exploration of the solar system and the physical environment of the Earth. Each of these areas of science is likely to give rise to a profound revolution in technology. The names of the new technologies are genetic Earth. Each of these areas of science is likely to give rise to a profound revolution in technology. The names of the new technologies are genetic engineering, artificial intelligence and space colonization. This short list is not complete. No doubt there will be other innovations of equal importance. engineering, artificial intelligence and space colonization. This short list is not complete. No doubt there will be other innovations of equal importance. Whatever else may happen, these three technological revolutions will be changing the conditions of human life during the coming century. I will say a few Whatever else may happen, these three technological revolutions will be changing the conditions of human life during the coming century. I will say a few words about each of them in turn.

words about each of them in turn.

Genetic engineering is already established as a tool of manufacture in the pharmaceutical industry. Bacteria can be infected with alien genes and Genetic engineering is already established as a tool of manufacture in the pharmaceutical industry. Bacteria can be infected with alien genes and cloned to pr

cloned to produce in quantioduce in quantity the proteins whity the proteins which the alich the alien genes specifyen genes specify. But the quanti. But the quantities ties {274} {274} that can be pthat can be produced roduced in in thithis way are at ps way are at present smallresent small.. Genetic engineering makes economic sense today only for producing drugs which can be sold at a high unit price. Genetic engineering does not yet begin Genetic engineering makes economic sense today only for producing drugs which can be sold at a high unit price. Genetic engineering does not yet begin to compete with conventional industrial processes for the mass production of common chemicals. The fundamental limitation of genetic engineering as it to compete with conventional industrial processes for the mass production of common chemicals. The fundamental limitation of genetic engineering as it now exists is the limitation of through-put. A genetically engineered bacterium in a tank produces about as much material in a day as a conventional now exists is the limitation of through-put. A genetically engineered bacterium in a tank produces about as much material in a day as a conventional combustion reactor in the same tank would produce in a second. Biological reactions are slow and require large volumes to produce substantial through- combustion reactor in the same tank would produce in a second. Biological reactions are slow and require large volumes to produce substantial through-  pu

 put of t of proproduductcts. Fs. For tor thhiis rs reaseasonon, g, genenetetiic enc enggiinneereeriinng g wwiilll l nnot rot repleplace ace conconvvenentitiononal al chchememiiststry ry so so llonong g as tas thhe ge genenetetiicalcallly ey ennggiinneereered ced creareatutures res arare coe connffiinneded