La primera etapa (1987-1994): «El renacimiento del cine literario»

In order to capture public perceptions of durability of exclusion, I have compiled an original dataset through on-site student surveys on social exclusion conducted in the period of February-April 2009. The surveys were conducted by me in the three main cities of Armenia: the capital city Yerevan as the center where most repressive acts by the state and military elites have been carried out and in two other cities of Armenia, Vanadzor and Gyumri, cities with high levels of poverty, crime and political apathy.⁶⁵ The number of observations is 300; those are individuals aged 18 and higher. 108 students represent

64 This failure is an indication for me as the author of the survey that design of the survey questions was incomplete and could not lead to definitive correlations between the hypothesized indirect and direct variables.

In fact, initially when designing the survey questions, I did not have an intention to measure this relationship.

However, after collecting the filled questionnaires , it turned out that if I had incorporated more specific questions, the public perceptions could also lead to evidence or denial of the hypothesized relationship. In the future, a more adequately designed questionnaire can possibly help me find evidence to confirm or disconfir m the relationship of the independent and dependent variables.

65 In Yerevan and Gyumri, the student surveys were conducted with the help of student friends and relatives, who distributed the survey questionnaires among their student circles and returned the filled questionnair es to me. As a former student of Vanadzor State Teachers' Training Institute (VSTTI), in the distribution and collection of the student surveys I got invaluable help from professors of the department of Foreign Langua ges, English Faculty of VSSTI.

106 Yerevan, 98 students represent Gyumri, and 94 students represent Vanadzor. These three cities represent different marzes of the Republic of Armenia.⁶⁶

The quantitative analysis first of all tackles the descriptive statistics of student perceptions of social exclusion through contingency tables. Further, the research

methodology of the analysis utilizes logistic regression, since both the dependent and the main seven independent variables are categorical in nature. In regards to the regression analysis, we should note that the results are presented in odds ratios. There are two models constructed, one model tests the association of the dependent variable with the primary independent variables alone. The second model incorporates two socio-demographic control variables to find if the influence of the latter can change results obtained in the first model.

The dependent variable of the study is perception of [existence of] social exclusion in Armenia. The independent variables of the study are constructed based on questions the answers to which are related to all three aspects of social exclusion discussed in the second chapter of this dissertation: economic aspect, social aspect and the political. Perceptions of economic exclusion are based on respondents’ (1) parents’ employment status, (2) own employment status, and (3) relative poverty level of household. Perceptions of social and political exclusion are based on respondents’ answers to a question that asks: (4) “Have you or a family member currently or in recent years been (actively) involved in civil and political activities or organizations, such as, for example, labor unions, social clubs, a political party or parties, pre-election campaign, women’s organizations?” The measurement of those two aspects of social exclusion (social and political) becomes more complete if we also analyze patterns of (5) respondents’ demonstration participation (or inaction), and(6) demonstrators’

socio-economic status improvement within the last 10 years due to socio-political events. (7) The perception of self-exclusion is a combination variable measuring the economic, social and political perceptions of exclusion.

The control variables are (1) age and (2) residence. All of those variables might not match the real picture of social exclusion in post-Soviet Armenia; this part of the study,

66 In Armenia, marz is a territorial-administrative subdivision equaling a region: there are 11 marzes, including the city of Yerevan with its outskirts. Marzes are sometimes also called regions.

107 however, is more concerned with the public perceptions of social exclusion and not actual social exclusion.

“Perceptions of [existence] of social exclusion”, a dummy variable, is constructed based on the answers to the question: “Do you think there is social exclusion in

Armenia?”For answers “yes”, the variable is coded as 0, and for answers “no”, it is coded as 1.

The independent variable “relative poverty level of household” is coded in the following manner: answer ‘considerably above’ is coded as 1, ‘a little above’ is coded as 2,

‘about the same’ is coded as 3, ‘a little below’ as 4, ‘considerably below’ is coded as 5, and

‘don’t know’ as 6. The variable “parent employment status” is coded 0 for the answer ‘yes’

and 1 for the answer ‘no’. The variable “own employment status” is coded likewise. Variable

“self-exclusion” is coded 1 for the answer ‘yes’ and 0 for the answers ‘no’.

The independent variable highlighting the socio-political aspect of exclusion, “socio-economic status improvement” is coded 0 for answers ‘no' and 1 for answers ‘yes’. The variable “demonstration participation” is coded 0 for answers ‘yes” and 1 for answers ‘no'.

In the regression analysis, the variable “cannot answer” is coded 0 ('yes'), meaning that those students, who could not or did not want to answer to this question, participated in a

demonstration.⁶⁷

The variable “change needed to make Armenia more inclusive and egalitarian” is coded as follows:

a. The President (1)

b. The National Assembly of Armenia (2) c. The domestic security system (3) d. Political parties (4)

e. Mass media (5)

67 A student has either participated or has not participated in a d emonstration. A "cannot answer" reply does not seem to be applicable to this type of question, therefore, I tend to assume that the students who provideda

“cannot answer”reply to this question participated in at least one demonstration. As it is typical of surveys, anonymity does not often help the surveyor to obtain either objective or true data from respondents, becaus e of respondents’ fear of bearing responsibility for their answers, because of their emotions and judgments at t he moment of taking the survey, etc. More on the illusive nature of the public opinion can be found in John Zaller’s “The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion"(Cambridge, 1992).

108