Banco Central de Chile
Documentos de Trabajo
Central Bank of Chile
Working Papers
N° 220
Agosto 2003
THE EFFECTS OF NOMINAL AND REAL SHOCKS
ON THE CHILEAN REAL EXCHANGE RATE
DURING THE NINETIES
Claudio Soto
La serie de Documentos de Trabajo en versión PDF puede obtenerse gratis en la dirección electrónica:
http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Existe la posibilidad de solicitar una copia impresa con un costo de $500 si es dentro de Chile y US$12 si es para fuera de Chile. Las solicitudes se
pueden hacer por fax: (56-2) 6702231 o a través de correo electrónico: [email protected].
Working Papers in PDF format can be downloaded free of charge from:
http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Printed versions can be ordered individually for US$12 per copy (for orders inside Chile the charge is Ch$500.) Orders can be placed by fax: (56-2) 6702231
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Documentos de Trabajo del Banco Central de Chile Working Papers of the Central Bank of Chile
Huérfanos 1175, primer piso.
Documento de Trabajo
Working Paper
N° 220
N° 220
THE EFFECTS OF NOMINAL AND REAL SHOCKS
ON THE CHILEAN REAL EXCHANGE RATE
DURING THE NINETIES
Claudio Soto
Economista Senior Gerencia de Investigación Económica
Banco Central de Chile
Resumen
Utilizando VAR identificados mediante restricciones de largo plazo, este trabajo evalúa la importancia de shocks reales y nominales sobre el tipo de cambio real en Chile durante los años noventa. Diversas estimaciones indican que los shocks nominales explican alrededor del 30% de la variabilidad del error de pronóstico de esta variable en el corto plazo. Un shock nominal produce una apreciación del tipo de cambio real que dura aproximadamente cinco meses. El impacto de los shocks reales depende de la naturaleza del mismo. Mientras que un shock de productividad aprecia el tipo de real, un shock de demanda genera una depreciación real. La descomposición histórica muestra que durante los noventa no hubo grandes desalineamientos del tipo de cambio con relación a su valor de largo plazo.
Abstract
Using structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions, this paper evaluates the importance of nominal shocks and real disturbances on the Chilean real exchange rate (RER) during the nineties. Different estimations indicate that nominal disturbances account for about 30% of the variance of the forecast error of the RER in the short run. Positive nominal shocks produce an appreciation of RER that lasts five months. The effect of real shocks depends on the nature of the shocks. A positive productivity shock appreciates the real exchange rate while a positive expenditure shock causes a real depreciation of the currency. The historical decomposition of the RER does not show periods of large misalignment.
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Agradezco los valiosos comentarios de César Calderón. El resto de los errores son míos. E-mail: [email protected].
1
Introduction
During the 90’s the real exchange rate in Chile showed a persistent downward trend (see figure 1).1 One hypothesis for this phenomenon was associated
with the productivity growth the country faced during this period, which would have been larger than the productivity gains of the trade partners. Basically, the argument is that the Balassa-Samuelson effect dominated the evolution of the real exchange rate (RER) in this period.2 In fact, in the middle of the 90’s the Chilean authority officially incorporated a 2% appreci-ation of the central parity of the (nominal) exchange rate as a way of taking explicitly into account productivity gains.3
At the same time some analysts claimed that an important source for the real appreciation of the exchange rate was the wide surge of capital inflows to the Latin-American countries in this period associated with the reduction in the risk premium faced by the region (Calvo, Reinhart and Leiderman, 1992). In the Chilean case this would have been even stronger since the monetary policy during this period was oriented towards reducing the two digit inflation rate prevailing at the end of the 80’s and, therefore, it was relatively tight. In fact, to gain some independence for the monetary policy without sacrificing the stability of the RER the Central Bank introduced in June 1991 a set of capital controls.4
The objective of the paper is to evaluate empirically the importance of nominal shocks on the volatility of the Chilean RER during the 90’s and to analyze the effects of real shocks on this variable.
The empirical model is based on structural VARs identified by using long-run restrictions. Other papers that use this approach to identify the sources of fluctuation in the RER are Clarida and Gali (1994), Lee and Chinn (1998) and Rogers (1998). Clarida and Gali (1994) study the importance of nominal shocks on four major currencies. Analyzing the variance decomposition of tri-variate VARs with output, RER and price levels they conclude that in
1After the Asian crisis this trend in the Chilean real exchange rate has reverted. 2Délano and Valdés (1998) present estimation that indicates that the annual real
ap-preciation of the exchange rate due to productivity differentials for the 1990-1997 period in Chile was in the range 0.7% to 0.9%.
3In September of 1999 the Central Bank eliminated the band for the nominal exchange
rate. Starting from that date the exchange rate freely floats.
4The effectiveness of these controls in isolating the Chilean capital market from the
international markets has been questioned by some authors. On this issue see Edwards (1999).
Figure 5
Impulse-Response Function Response of Trade Balance to a Supply shock
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0010 0.0015 0.0020 0.0025
Response of Real Exchage Rate to a Supply shock
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -0.012 -0.010 -0.008 -0.006 -0.004 -0.002 0.000 0.002 0.004
Response of Interest Rate Differential to a Supply shock
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -0.006 -0.005 -0.004 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.001
Response of Trade Balance to a Demand shock
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -0.0004 -0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006
Response of Real Exchange Rate to a Demand shock
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0.008 0.010 0.012 0.014 0.016 0.018 0.020 0.022
Response of Interest Rate Differential to a Demand shock
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004
Response of Trade Balance to a Monetary shock
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -0.0006 -0.0004 -0.0002 -0.0000 0.0002 0.0004 0.0006 0.0008
Response of Real Exchange Rate to a Monetary shock
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -0.0125 -0.0100 -0.0075 -0.0050 -0.0025 0.0000 0.0025 0.0050 0.0075
Response of Interest Rate Differential to a Monetary shock
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -0.0012 0.0000 0.0012 0.0024 0.0036 0.0048 0.0060 0.0072 0.0084
Documentos de Trabajo
Banco Central de Chile
Working Papers
Central Bank of Chile
NÚMEROS ANTERIORES PAST ISSUES
La serie de Documentos de Trabajo en versión PDF puede obtenerse gratis en la dirección electrónica:
http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Existe la posibilidad de solicitar una copia impresa con un costo de $500 si es dentro de Chile y US$12 si es para fuera de Chile. Las solicitudes se
pueden hacer por fax: (56-2) 6702231 o a través de correo electrónico:[email protected].
Working Papers in PDF format can be downloaded free of charge from:
http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Printed versions can be ordered individually for US$12 per copy (for orders inside Chile the charge is Ch$500.) Orders can be placed by fax: (56-2) 6702231
or e-mail: [email protected].
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