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(2) !"#$%&' ! ;',/(+*%6%"+/+($='*0(2-&"$>+(%/#/-0(6/%1'%,$-#/( ! )'?(#'*-0%"/+(@%'?( ! .',,/-0+('-(2-&"$( ! A'3"#8(",63"#$0"'-+(.
(3) 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. 700. 2-#',/(6/%(#$6"0$((. GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$. -.1. -.05 0. .05. B%'?0<(6/%(#$6"0$((. Growth GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$. .1. ()*+,-'.$'/$%.&'.0').0.$"'&$%' 1#2*3.$"'3*)#'0,&14#'. 5678' 9678' :6;8'. 1960 1970 1980. 1960 1970 1980 year. year. :6<8' =6=8'. 1990 2000 2010. 1990 2000 2010.
(4) 8.5. .<"-$(. 7.5. 8. 2-&"$(. 6.5. 7. A$C"+0$-(. 6. GDP per capita at PPP, logs. !'2*3>&).0*$'+.,-'?-.$&'&$%' @&A.0,&$'. 1980. 1990. year. GDP per capita at PPP, logs. 2000. 2010. GDP per capita at PPP, logs.
(5)
(6) 30 40. BC>*),0''*D'(EF'&0'&'0-&)#'*D'(G@' 2-&"$(. 10. 20. .<"-$(. A$C"+0$-(. 1970. 1980. 1990 year. 2000. 2010.
(7) 59HI#&)'")*+,-'.$'#C>*),0'>#)' 2&>.,&'J5KKLHM99LN' .2. NGA. ROM RUS DZA. .05. .1. .15. BIH BGR. 0. 10-year growth, Exports of G&S per capita. GEOCHN. KWT LTU. TTO. SAU. VNM MNG ARM MOZZMB IND LVA POLCZE SVK UKR COG BTN HUN EST LBR KGZ BLR BHR SRB PER RWA VEN GAB BOL ECU MDA NOR BRA GNB LUX HRV MKD CHL LAO EGY UZB GRC MAR LBN KOR LSO SYR THA DEU SYC AUTDNK CMR IDN CPV JOR TUNCOL TUR UGA NLD ZAF MDG ARG AUS BGD FIN BEL ESP SWE PNG HND KEN ISL PRT ETH SLE GHA COM CYP BWA MEXURY WSMGTM HKG ITA ISR SLV NAM GBR VUT MDV BENHTI FRA SEN PRY BRB BLZ PAN CIV CRI MUS PAK LKA SWZ VCT PHL TON GIN DOM MWI LCA KNA TJK GRD GUY ATG NPL ZAR CAF DMA GMB. GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$). 10000 20000 30000 40000 , L10.
(8) GED(. GDD(. FNL(6$(. FED(. I0</%(;J( K%$-+6'%0( K'*%"+,( 2.K( B''&+(. MFL(6$( FHL(6$( FDD(. ED(. D(. GDDD(. GDDH(.
(9) .25. O&$PD&2,P).$"'#C>*),'")*+,-'.0' &40*'QP.,#'.3>)#00.R#'J5KKLHM99LN' NER CHN. .2. EGY AZE. .15. GTMBGR GHA RUS RWA ECU ETH PER. .1. SDN. CHL MWI PRY ZMB NOR AUS. .05. NZL. KEN COL BRA. GIN ARG. IDN. GRC NLD. SEN. MYS CAN. CIV. BLR ZAF. SVK POL JOR ROM CZE UKR TUR HUN MDG IND. THA SLV TUN HRV. ISR AUT DEU SGP CHE DNK MEX FIN CRI PAK SWE ITA IRL PRT FRA HKG JPN USA PHL GBR. VEN BOL. 0. 10-year Manufacturing Export Growth. KAZ. 0. 20 40 60 80 Manufactures exports (% of merchandise exports). 100.
(10)
(11)
(12) K</8(6%'&*#/(&"O/%/-0(6%'&*#0+(.
(13) 9. 9.5. 10. IRL CHE FIN JPN DEU SWE AUT KOR CZE FRA ITA DNKUSA HUN SVK BEL SGP GBR ESP CHN POL NLD ISR PRT PHL MEX HRV THA TUR LTU NZL GRC CAN ZAF BLR HKG BIH CRI MYS BGR UKR IND AUS TUN BRAURY ARG IDN JOR SLV NOR RUS EGY DOM COL LKA SEN GTM MDA CHL BOL ALB GEO PER PAN PAK KAZ PRY ARM ECU KEN CIV YEM AZE VEN NGA SDN ZMB MLI UGAGHA. 8.5. GIN ETH MWI NER RWA. 8. 2-#',/(6/%(#$6"0$('1(/P6'%0(#',6/0"0'%+(. Export sophistication EXPY, in logs at PPP. Rich countries export rich-country goods, poor countries!. 6. 7. 8 9 Income per capita, PPP in logs. 10. 11.
(14) .12. Countries converge to the level of income of their competitors MAC. .08. .1. HKG THA CHL MUS KNA MLT MYS CYP NOR ESP BHR BLZ PRTGBR NLDUSA AUS FINISL AUT IND TTO GRC JPN SWE CAN DNK IDN LKACRI TUR ISR ITA HUN OMN DOM URY NZL MOZ JAM EGY BGR ARG ALB PAN IRN SLV GUY MEX COLMAR FJI PAK WSM ECU SAU BGD BRA PHL PER GTM SYR GHA HND BOL NPL VEN MLI BFA MNG NGA DZA ZAF. SDN. .06. UGA. GIN PRY SEN ETH PNG KEN BEN NIC GMB. .04. RWA NER. MWI. MDG CIV TGO CAF. .02. BDI. 7.5. KOR IRL SGP. 8. GAB JOR. CMR SLE HTI. 8.5 9 Export sophistication in 1985. 9.5.
(15) 20000. S-#'#R*4PT*$'*D'#C>*),'0*>-.0T2&T*$' 2-&"$(. 15000. K<$"3$-&(. 5000. 10000. .<"-$(. 0. A$C"+0$-(. 1960. 1970. 1980. year. India Pakistan. 1990. 2000 China Thailand. 2010.
(16) /$%.&'H'5K<9'.
(17) /$%.&'H'M99K'.
(18) /$%.&'&$%'?-.$&'.$'M99K'.
(19) /$%.&'&$%'@&A.0,&$'.$'M99K'.
(20)
(21) S-#'-.%%#$'0,)P2,P)#'.$',-#' 2*3>&)&TR#'&%R&$,&"#'*D'$&T*$0'.
(22) S-#'-.%%#$'0,)P2,P)#'.$',-#' 2*3>&)&TR#'&%R&$,&"#'*D'$&T*$0'.
(23) Locations (Sorted by Diversity). Happens within countries too: Chile 0 50. -0.2. 100 150. -0.4. 200. -0.6. 250 -0.8. 300 100. 200 300 400 500 Industries (Sorted by Ubiquity). 600. 700. -1.
(24) U*)'SP)A#I' 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 60. 70. 80.
(25) A%'&*#0+(Q'%&/&(=8(*="S*"08R(. U*)'/$%.&'JP0.$"',-#'M99=' B2*$*3.2'?#$0P0N'. ."0"/+(Q'%&/%/&(=8(&"5/%+"08('1(/#'-',8R(.
(26) V-&,'%*#0',-.0'3#&$W' ! ;',/(63$#/+(,$C/(1/?(0<"-@+T(?<"3/('0</%+(,$C/(. ,$-8(0<"-@+( ! ;',/(6%'&*#0+($%/(,$&/("-(,$-8(63$#/+T('0</%( 6%'&*#0+($%/(,$&/("-(1/?(63$#/+( ! A3$#/+(0<$0(,$C/(1/?(6%'&*#0+T(,$C/(6%'&*#0+(,$&/( "-(,$-8(63$#/+( ! A3$#/+(0<$0(,$C/(,$-8(6%'&*#0+T($3+'(,$C/(6%'&*#0+( ,$&/("-(1/?('0</%(63$#/+( ! .'*-0%"/+($-&(#"0"/+(&'(-'0(+6/#"$3"U/T(0</8(&"5/%+"18(.
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(28) ?*P$,).#0'%.X#)'.$',-#'0#,'*D'2&>&1.4.T#0' ,-#I'-&R#'.
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(30) !"#$%&'()*. !+,+-'.'/()*. 0&"1#2%)*.
(31) !"#$%&'()*. 0&"1#2%)*.
(32) /$,P.T*$'. ! .'*-0%"/+(0<$0(<$5/(,'%/(#$6$="3"0"/+(?"33(=/($=3/(0'(. ,$C/(,'%/(6%'&*#0+(. ! K</8(?'*3&(=/(,'%/(&"5/%+"V/&(. ! A%'&*#0+(0<$0(%/S*"%/(,'%/(#$6$="3"0"/+(?"33(=/(,$&/(. =8(1/?/%(#'*-0%"/+(. ! A%'&*#0+(?"33(=/(3/++(*="S*"0'*+(. ! .'*-0%"/+(0<$0(<$5/(,'%/(#$6$="3"0"/+(?"33(=/($=3/(0'(. ,$C/(6%'&*#0+(0<$0($%/(3/++(*="S*"0'*+( ! 4"5/%+"V#$0"'-('1(#'*-0%"/+($-&(*="S*"08('1(6%'&*#0+( $%/(-/@$0"5/38(#'%%/3$0/&( ! K</8($%/("-&"%/#0(,/$+*%/+('1(0</(#$6$="3"08(+/0('1(#'*-0%"/+(.
(33) '. JY#&)'M999N'. !"#&%. 8-'9#'%7*"6*+*!"#$%&7:)*0&"1#2%)'. !R#)&"#'$P31#)'*D'2*P$,).#0',-&,'3&A#',-#' 0&3#'>)*%P2,0'''. Diversification and ubiquity are negatively related. !"#$% \.%&4"*]'\&P03&$$'JM99KN' !"#$'597J;<N^59=<9H59=<='. 3'4(&)'52+/"$*"6*+*2"#$%&7Z'. [P31#)'*D'@)*%P2,0'&'2*P$,)I'3&A#0'.
(34) It also works within countries: Chile 4"5/%+"08WX5/%$@/(7="S*"08( Y*-"#"6$3"0"/+(. 300 OLLAGUE. COLCHANE. ZI!(.)2[\(GDDH(. GENERAL LAGOS. 250. 200. 1. k (Average Ubiquity). PRIMAVERA SAN ROSENDO SANTORTEL GREGORIO LAGUNA BLANCAGORDA SIERRA QUILACO CAMARONES ALTO BIOANTUCO BIO CAMINA PEMUCO HUALAIHUE FUTALEUFU LAGO TORRES DEVERDE PAINE PUTRE CURARREHUE NINHUE GALVARINO TREHUACO COCHRANE ERCILLA SAN FABIAN MELIPEUCO HUARA PALENA O'HIGGINS COBQUECURA PERQUENCO NIQUEN EMPEDRADO CONTULMO PUQUELDON QUILLECO NAVIDAD PICA ALTO DEL SAAVEDRA CARMEN JUAN FERNANDEZ ANTARTIDA MARIA ELENA RANQUIL RIO IBANEZ PORTEZUELO LA ESTRELLA LUMACO MARCHIGUE GUAITECAS PUMANQUE VICHUQUEN ALHUE RIO HURTADO LAGO RANCO TEODORO SCHMIDT SANTA JUANA NEGRETE COINCO TIRUA PAREDONES ELPINTO CARMEN CANELA PAPUDO CHOLCHOL SAN JUAN DE LA PELLUHUE COSTA CABO DE HORNOS LONQUIMAY PAIHUANO SAN PEDRO SAN DE RAFAEL ATACAMA LA HIGUERA CUREPTO CHANCO SAN PEDRO DE MELIPILLA ANDACOLLO LOS SAUCES LOLOL ISLA DE PASCUA PUERTO OCTAY YERBAS RINCONADA BUENAS MAFIL TOLTEN PUNITAQUI PANQUEHUE PALMILLA FRESIA FLORIDA FREIRINA CURACO DE VELEZ PENCAHUE HUALANE SANCHILE PABLO LITUECHE RIO CLARO EL TABO CHICO PUYEHUE PELARCO SAN NICOLAS LOS ALAMOS COMBARBALA SANTA BARBARA TUCAPEL QUEMCHI QUIRIHUE PERALILLO FUTRONO COIHUECO CHAITEN CUNCO TIERRA AMARILLA TIL-TIL RAUCO VILLA ALEGRE COCHAMO QUEILEN SAN RENAICO IGNACIO LICANTEN PUREN CALLE LARGA MARIA PINTO PETORCA CARAHUE RETIRO CHEPICA SANTAYUMBEL RIO MARIA NEGRO YUNGAY OLMUE GORBEA COELEMU SAGRADA MULCHEN FAMILIA CATEMU CODEGUA HUASCO LOS QUILLON MUERMOS MEJILLONES PLACILLA LONGAVI LAJA CISNES QUINTA TILCOCO COLLIPULLI QUINCHAO NOGALES COLBUN NANCAGUA Sin InformaciónCORRAL PUCHUNCAVI COLTAUCO PEUMO ZAPALLAR PAILLACO HIJUELAS EL QUISCO HUALQUI NACIMIENTO MAULLIN MALLOA CABILDO CHANARAL PICHIDEGUA SAN TRAIGUEN ESTEBAN ROMERAL FREIRE MARIQUINA POZO ALMONTE LOS LLAY-LLAY LAGOS LEBU LANCO MAULE PUTAENDO BULNES FRUTILLAR DALCAHUE OLIVAR CURACAUTIN MONTE REQUINOA PATRIA DIEGO DE ALMAGRO VILCUN CHILLAN PURRANQUE VIEJO LA CRUZ LLANQUIHUE CHONCHI PORVENIR CABRERO TOCOPILLA ALGARROBO TALTAL PITRUFQUEN TENOIMPERIAL CARTAGENA SANTO DOMINGO LOS VILOS NUEVA SAN FCO DE MOSTAZAL DONIHUE PICHILEMU RIO BUENO CURANILAHUE RIO VERDE LAS MACHALI CABRAS VICUNA LONCOCHE QUELLON EL MONTE CURACAVI PANGUIPULLI SAN CLEMENTE ISLA DE MAIPO SANCALBUCO JOSE MAIPO CALERACANETE DE TANGO CALDERA PIRQUE ARAUCO LAUTARO LOTA SALAMANCA GRANEROS PENCO CHIMBARONGO TOME ILLAPEL MOLINALA LIGUA CAUQUENES PUERTO QUINTERO NATALES AYSEN SAN JAVIER VICTORIA CASABLANCA PARRAL PUCON LA UNION ANGOL PADRE LAS CASAS CONSTITUCION SAN VICENTE T-T ALTO HOSPICIO PADRE HURTADO LIMACHE HUALPEN VALLENAR ANCUD CON CHIGUAYANTE CON SAN CARLOS LO ESPEJO VILLARRICA LA CALERA RENGO SANTA CRUZ TIMAUKEL. PAINE BUIN TALAGANTE LO PRADO CASTRO LOS ANDES SAN RAMON CERRO NAVIACORONEL COYHAIQUE PENAFLOR COLINA LINARES OVALLE VILLAVARAS ALEMANA PUERTO QUILLOTA SAN DE FELIPE LA SAN PEDRO LA PAZ LAMPA P PINTANA AGUIRRE RENCA CERDA SAN FERNANDO MELIPILLA LA GRANJACALAMA EL LO BOSQUE SAN ANTONIO BARNECHEA PUDAHUEL QUILPUE CERRILLOS HUECHURABA COPIAPO CONCHALI TALCAHUANO LAJOAQUIN REINA PENALOLEN SAN MACUL LOS ANGELES INDEPENDENCIA EST CENTRAL COQUIMBO CHILLAN SAN MIGUEL LA CISTERNA OSORNO QUILICURA CURICO QUINTA NORMAL PUNTA LA VALDIVIA SERENA ARENAS ARICA RECOLETA IQUIQUE RANCAGUA LA FLORIDA TALCA VITACURA VALPARAISO SAN BERNARDO NUNOA ANTOFAGASTA PUENTE ALTO PUERTO TEMUCO MONTT CONCEPCION VINA DEL MAR MAIPU. 150. 100 0. PROVIDENCIA LAS CONDES SANTIAGO. 100. 200. 300 400 k (Diversification) 0. 500. 600.
(35) U&$%'SP)A#I' 60. ARDAHAN TUNCEL". 50. B"NGÖL I!DIR HAKKAR" BAYBURT A!RI. 40. GÜMÜ#HANE MU# S""RT B"TL"S ERZ"NCAN. 20. 30. R"ZE N"!DE S"NOP KARS #IRNAK ARTV"N BARTIN BATMAN ADIYAMAN KASTAMONU ERZURUM VAN KARABÜK AKSARAY KIR#EH"R OSMAN"YE AMASYA G"RESUN K"L"S KARAMAN D"YARBAKIR ELAZI! #ANLIURFA MARD"N NEV#EH"R S"VAS TOKAT BURDUR ORDU DÜZCE YOZGAT ÇANAKKALE MU!LA MALATYA ZONGULDAK ÇANKIRI ISPARTA ED"RNE BOLU KAHRAMANMARA# AFYON KIRIKKALE U#AK TRABZON KÜTAHYA HATAY YALOVA KIRKLAREL" AYDIN ÇORUM ANTALYA DEN"ZL" SAMSUN "ÇEL B"LEC"K SAKARYA BALIKES"R ESK"#EH"R KAYSER" MAN"SA GAZ"ANTEP ADANA TEK"RDA! KONYA BURSA KOCAEL". ANKARA"ZM"R "STANBUL. 10. k1 (Average ubiquity). Diversity and average ubiquity of Turkey's cities. 0. 500. 1000 k0 (diversification). 1500.
(36) /$%.&$'2.T#0'%.R#)0.,IHP1.QP.,I' 02-#%P4#'. X<,$&$=$&(. )8&/%$=$&(. ^$-@$3'%/(. .</--$"(. ]/?( 4/3<"(. Y*,=$"(.
(37) S*+$'4#R#4'.
(38) S#-0.4'4#R#4'.
(39) G.0,).2,'4#R#4'.
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(49) F,#>'5^'O&C.3P3'F>&$$.$"'S)##' Our Approach: ! . ! . Distance measured by probability that, if a country is good in one product, it’s also good in another product. What is the shape of a forest? " . ! . Homogenous or Heterogeneous?. What does it look like?.
(50) F,#>'M^'bR#)4&I'F,)*$"'c.$A0' DJc(d(. DJc(e(DJEE(. DJEE(e(DJfE(. DJfE(g(.
(51) 7+"-@(Z//-+0%$(/0($3J( K%$&/(4$0$h( ( FMG(.'*-0%"/+( FDDf(A%'&*#0+( ;2K.Wc( QFNiEWGDDDR(. ?!'\.%&4"*]'d'e4.$"#)]'!Hc'd&)&1&0.]'`'\&P03&$$6' $'./0'/'JM99<N'.
(52) How do monkeys jump?.
(53) ?!'\.%&4"*]'d'e4.$"#)]'!Hc'd&)&1&0.]'`'\&P03&$$6' $'./0'/'JM99<N'.
(54) ?!'\.%&4"*]'d'e4.$"#)]'!Hc'd&)&1&0.]'`'\&P03&$$6' $'./0'/'JM99<N'.
(55) ?!'\.%&4"*]'d'e4.$"#)]'!Hc'd&)&1&0.]'`'\&P03&$$6' $'./0'/'JM99<N'.
(56) ?!'\.%&4"*]'d'e4.$"#)]'!Hc'd&)&1&0.]'`'\&P03&$$6' $'./0'/'JM99<N'.
(57) \5'3*0"'-('1(0</(6%'&*#0(+6$#/(.
(58) Y#&)'5K<9' '()*+%. ,-*(+%.
(59) Y#&)'5KK9' '()*+%. ,-*(+%.
(60) Y#&)'M999' '()*+%. ,-*(+%.
(61) Y#&)'M99K' '()*+%. ,-*(+%.
(62) /3>)*R#3#$,0'.$'>)*%P2TR#' 2&>&2.,I^'5KL;HM99K'.
(63) 16. F*3#'2*P$,).#0'-&R#'3*)#'$#&)1I' ,)##0',-&$'*,-#)0'JM99KN' ESP ITA FRA CHN POL CZE BEL DEU USA AUT GBR PRT DNK TUR NLD SVN THA CHE EST BGR LVA GRC HRV SWE SVK JPN HUN MEXLTU CAN BIH ZAF IDN EGY UKR KORFIN BRA TUN COL GTM MYS KEN NZL ARG ISR BLR SLV SGP LUX DOM PAK LKA PER CRI URY MDA PHL JOR MUS IRL SEN AUS HKG UGA CHL ALB MDG GEONAM LCA RUS CIV NOR ETH GMB BOL GHA PRYARM GRD PAN ECU KAZ MOZ MAC ISL MWI RWAZMB BWA JAM VCT MLI GUY NER TTO NGA DMA YEM WSM GIN STP BTN BLZ SYC VEN SDN SUR AZE. 14 12. 13. BDI. MDV. 11. Open Forest, in logs. 15. IND. 6. 7. 8 9 Income per capita, PPP in logs. 10. 11.
(64) S-#'@)*%P2,'F>&2#'JB?KLN'.
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(73) S-#'%#R#4*>3#$,'>)*14#3'M69' ! 4/5/3'6,/-0("+($='*0(0</($##*,*3$0"'-('1(6%'&*#0"5/(. #$6$="3"0"/+( ! j$-&(/P6%/++"-@(0</,("-(,'%/(6%'&*#0+(( ! j($-&("-(6%'&*#0+(0<$0(%/S*"%/(,'%/(#$6$="3"0"/+(Q"J/J(,'%/( #',63/PR( ! ^*0("0(1$#/+($(a#<"#C/-($-&(/@@b(6%'=3/,( ! j+'35/&(=8(,'5"-@((6%/1/%/-0"$338(0'?$%&+(-/$%=8(@''&+( ! 2-(0</(&/5/3'6,/-0(6%'#/++(6/'63/($-&(V%,+(+6/#"$3"U/T(=*0( +'#"/0"/+(&"5/%+"18( ! X(%*%$3(,/&"#$3(1$#"3"08(5+J($(,$k'%(<'+6"0$3(. ! 4/5/3'6,/-0("+('-38(5/%8(6$%0"$338($='*0(a$&&"-@(5$3*/(0'(. 8'*%(%$?(,$0/%"$3+b( ! Z"-3$-&((. ! Z'33'?(0</(#$6$="3"0"/+T(-'0(0</(6%'&*#0+(.
(74) Ease to jump to new products: open forest. S-#'0,)&,#".2'0#h$"' High. Stairway to heaven Parsimonious industrial policy Help jump short distances to other products. Let it be High growth potential Ample space to move in all directions. Bridge over troubled waters. Hey Jude: make it better. Strategic bets. Competitiveness policy. Little space to improve quality and few nearby trees. Improve the conditions of the sectors that already exist. Low Low. High Current level of export sophistication.
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