ISSF Stainless Steel in Figures 2013 - PLATEA

Stainless Steel in Figures

2013

Disclaimer

The Interna onal Stainless Steel Forum believes that the informa on presented is technically correct. However, ISSF does not represent or warrant the accuracy of the informa on contained in this document or its suitability for any general or specifi c use. The material contained herein is by necessity general in nature; it should not be used or relied upon for any specifi c or general applica on without fi rst obtaining competent advice. ISSF, its members, staff and consultants specifi cally disclaim any and all liability or responsibility of any kind for loss, damage, or injury resul ng from the use of the informa on contained in this brochure.

For more informa on about the ac vi es of ISSF, or the sta s cs in this booklet, please contact:

Secretary General, ISSF Rue Colonel Bourg 120 B-1140 Brussels, Belgium T: +32 (0)2 702 89 16 F: +32 (0)2 702 89 12 E: [email protected]

Website

More informa on about the work of ISSF can be found at worldstainless.org.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all data in this booklet has been provided by the Interna onal Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF).

Data has also been provided by:

1 Interna onal Monetary Fund (IMF) 2 Yale University: School of Forestry and Environmental Studies (Reck et al.)

3 Vale Inco

Data Sources

Further Information

Table of Contents

Secretary General’s Message ... 4

SecƟ on 1: History and CompeƟ Ɵ on

Compound annual growth rate of world stainless crude steel produc on ... 5

Regional share of stainless steel produc on (2005 versus 2012) ... 5

Stainless steel versus plas cs - produc on evolu on (1980 - 2011) ... 6

Compound annual growth rate of major metals (1980 - 2012) ... 6

SecƟ on 2: Actual Performance

Stainless crude steel produc on (2006 - 2012p) ... 7

Stainless crude steel produc on by quarter (2011 and 2012p) ... 8

Stainless steel foreign trade (2011 and 2012) ... 9

Foreign trade exports of stainless steel (2011 and 2012) ... 10

Foreign trade exports of stainless steel scrap (2011 and 2012) ... 11

Apparent stainless steel use by region (2000 - 2012p) ... 12

Stainless crude steel produc on by region (2001 - 2012p)... 12

Stainless crude steel produc on by grade category (2001 - 2012p) ... 13

Global stainless crude steel produc on by quarter (2001 - 2012p) ... 13

SecƟ on 3: PotenƟ al

Demand versus real stainless steel use - Europe (Q1 2002 - Q4 2012) ...14

Demand versus real stainless steel use - Americas (Q1 2002 - Q4 2012) ...14

Demand versus real stainless steel use - Asia, excluding China (Q1 2002 - Q4 2012) ....15

Demand versus real stainless steel use - China (Q1 2002 - Q4 2012) ...15

Demand versus real stainless steel use - World (Q1 2002 - Q4 2012) ...16

Per-capita direct and indirect use of stainless steel (2000, 2005, 2010) ... 16

Per-capita direct and indirect use of stainless steel (2005 and 2010) ... 17

GDP PPP per capita versus stainless steel use per capita (2005 and 2010) ... 18

Comparison of direct versus total stainless steel use (2005 and 2010) ... 19

Secretary General’s Message

Following the successful introduc on of Stainless Steel in Figures last year and Pascal’s indica on that we would con nue to up-date the brochure on a regular basis, I am pleased to introduce the second edi on.

There were several key factors behind the original decision, made in Pi sburgh in 1996, to establish an interna onal forum to represent the interests of the stainless steel industry. One key goal of establishing ISSF was to enable the industry to build its own reliable sta s cal database. With regular updates and consistent repor ng standards, members would be able to use this data for their own decision making purposes. We have achieved a lot in our fi rst 17 years and we plan to build on these achievements in the years ahead.

As we said last year, if you have any comments, sugges ons, or even cri cisms, please let us know. Your feedback will enable us to make further improvements in future edi ons.

This will be the last edi on of Stainless Steel in Figures which will be prepared by Peter Kaumanns as he will re re at the end of this year. I would like to take this opportunity to pay a special tribute to Peter. His reless work collec ng, building, analysing and presen ng a myriad of sta s cal data and forecas ng models has provided a backbone for the progress

the stainless industry has made so far.

There will be other opportuni es this year to say an appropriate farewell to Peter, but I wanted to dedicate this edi on of Stainless Steel in Figures to his important contribu on to our industry.

John Rowe Secretary General,

Interna onal Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF) Brussels, May 2013

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

First oil crisis

Second oil crisis

First Gulf war Asian crises 2001 recession

World ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂů

crisis

1 Mt

35.4 Mt (2012)

1950 2012p

Compound annual growth KƌŝŐŝŶĂůƟŵĞƐĞƌŝĞƐ͗ϱ͘ϵϭй dƌĞŶĚŐƌŽǁƚŚ͗ϱ͘ϱϴй

DŝůůŝŽŶŵĞƚƌŝĐƚŽŶŶĞƐ;DƚͿ

Figure 1: Compound annual growth rate of world stainless crude steel producƟ on (in Mt): 1950 – 2012p

Figure 2: Regional share of stainless steel producƟ on: 2005 (leŌ ) and 2012p (right)

34%

11%

13%

39%

3%

China Other Asia

(excluding China)

21%

7%

45%

25%

2%

EU-27 Americas Rest of world

Section 1: History and Competition

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Stainless steel

WůĂƐƟĐƐ

Index: 1990 = 100

33.6 Mt (2011)

1980 2011

6.9 Mt

Figure 3: Stainless steel producƟ on versus plasƟ cs producƟ on: 1980 – 2011. The producƟ on evoluƟ on of both materials is similar, though stainless steel is more volaƟ le.

Lead

Carbon steel

Stainless steel Aluminium

Zinc Copper

2.29%

2.48%

2.56%

3.52%

5.57%

2.61%

Average: 2.69%

Figure 4: Compound annual growth rate of major metals (%/year): 1980 - 2012

Section 1: History and Competition

Table 1: Stainless crude steel producƟ on (ingot/slab equivalent) in ‘000 metric tonnes:

2006 – 2012p

p = provisional, r = revised

Note: Major correcƟ on of Chinese data for 2011, not comparable with previous years.

Country/Region 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011r 2012p

Belgium 1,522 1,521 1,471 1,045 1,306 1,241 1,241

Finland 1,303 975 957 726 998 1,003 1,078

France 529 308 297 202 276 300 285

Germany 1,724 1,505 1,574 1,320 1,509 1,502 1,313

Italy 1,832 1,558 1,471 1,216 1,583 1,602 1,696

Spain 1,257 1,105 998 693 844 807 844

Sweden 684 645 574 445 546 586 510

United Kingdom 375 351 340 224 279 330 294

Other EU 152 148 158 114 152 188 195

European Union 9,379 8,115 7,838 5,986 7,494 7,559 7,455

USA 2,460 2,171 1,925 1,617 2,201 2,074 1,977

Brazil 491 433 390 324 409 413 391

Americas 2,951 2,604 2,315 1,942 2,609 2,486 2,368

Japan 4,073 3,882 3,567 2,607 3,427 3,247 3,166

South Korea 2,278 1,942 1,660 1,677 2,048 2,157 2,167 Taiwan, China 1,724 1,515 1,297 1,468 1,514 1,203 1,109

China 5,299 7,206 6,943 8,805 11,256 14,091 16,087

India 2,006 1,966 1,832 1,721 2,022 2,163 2,279

Asia 15,380 16,510 15,299 16,277 20,267 22,861 24,807

South Africa 727 651 528 546 480 443 503

Russia 131 143 135 86 122 125 112

Ukraine 138 124 104 67 118 147 118

World 28,706 28,146 26,218 24,904 31,090 33,621 35,363

Section 2: Actual Performance

Western Europe/ Africa Central & Eastern Europe

The Amer

icas Asia (excluding China) China World

Quarter 1

2011 2,218 89 779 2,238 3,412 8,736

2012 p 2,211 87 607 2,226 3,790 8,922

% change -0.3 -2.6 -22.0 -0.6 11.1 2.1

Quarter 2

2011 2,082 114 598 2,134 3,510 8,438

2012 p 2,065 98 613 2,236 4,006 9,017

% change -0.9 -14.1 2.5 4.8 14.1 6.9

First half

2011 4,300 203 1,377 4,373 6,922 17,174

2012 p 4,276 184 1,220 4,462 7,796 17,939

% change -0.6 -9.0 -11.3 2.0 12.6 4.5

Quarter 3

2011 1,684 104 553 2,220 3,535 8,097

2012 p 1,756 90 603 2,118 4,015 8,582

% change 4.2 -13.7 9.1 -4.6 13.6 6.0

Quarter 4

2011 1,899 84 557 2,177 3,634 8,351

2012 p 1,798 85 545 2,140 4,275 8,843

% change -5.3 0.7 -2.2 -1.7 17.6 5.9

Second half

2011 3,583 188 1,110 4,397 7,169 16,448

2012 p 3,553 175 1,148 4,258 8,291 17,424

% change -0.8 -7.3 3.4 -3.2 15.6 5.9

2011 7,883 391 2,486 8,770 14,091 33,621

Full year 2012 p 7,829 359 2,368 8,720 16,087 35,363

% change -0.7 -8.2 -4.7 -0.6 14.2 5.2

Table 2: Stainless crude steel producƟ on by quarter in ‘000 metric tonnes:

2011 versus 2012p

Section 2: Actual Performance

Figure 5: Stainless steel foreign trade 2011 (above) and 2012 (below). In 2011, 79% of all stainless exports were fl at rolled products. In 2012, the share was 81%.

Cold flat

46.4% Hot coils

23.3%

Cold bars/wire 7.9%

Semis flat 1.6%

Hot bars/wire rod 10.5%

Semis long 2.5%

Hot plate and sheet 7.8%

Cold flat 47.0%

Hot coils 25.4%

Cold bars/wire 7.6%

Semis flat 1.4%

Hot bars/wire rod 8.4%

Semis long 3.0%

Hot plate and sheet 7.2%

Origin

DesƟ naƟ on

NAFTA LaƟ n America Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Asia Others Total

NAFTA 366.5 80.0 141.6 1.1 3.9 1.3 99.8 0.8 695.1

La n

America 21.3 61.6 17.1 0.5 1.9 4.2 13.8 0.1 120.4

Western

Europe 726.5 73.7 5,478.4 723.7 78.7 66.9 568.1 33.0 7,749.0

Eastern

Europe 14.2 0.9 201.3 131.7 0.7 1.4 6.6 0.0 356.8

Middle East 3.6 0.5 21.3 2.0 67.4 0.0 7.8 0.5 103.2

Africa 40.1 22.4 85.0 4.3 16.4 6.4 74.1 0.1 248.8

Asia 389.7 152.5 965.5 189.1 200.1 77.3 4,401.1 94.7 6,469.9

Others 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.9 2.0

Total 1,562.1 391.7 6,910.4 1,052.5 369.1 157.5 5,171.9 130.1 15,745.2

Origin

DesƟ naƟ on

NAFTA LaƟ n America Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Asia Others Total

NAFTA 427.5 79.8 148.8 1.5 2.8 1.5 82.8 1.1 745.6

La n

America 37.6 57.7 8.1 0.3 1.5 3.3 10.8 0.1 119.3

Western

Europe 846.3 87.3 5,278.3 698.8 63.8 82.7 510.3 22.8 7,590.3

Eastern

Europe 13.7 0.8 201.1 156.6 2.7 0.7 6.2 0.0 381.9

Middle

East* 4.3 0.3 6.3 0.3 n/a 0.0 7.1 0.4 18.6

Africa 36.6 40.5 88.9 8.2 16.9 6.5 91.9 1.1 290.07

Asia 395.4 155.0 849.0 204.5 145.4 73.4 4,292.5 76.5 6,191.6

Others 0.1 0.0 0.2 - 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 2.6

Total 1,761.4 421.3 6,580.7 1,070.1 233.1 168.5 5,002.5 103.1 15,340.6

Table 3: Foreign trade exports of stainless steel in 2011 (above) and 2012 (below).

(1,000 metric tonnes.) Includes feedstock material for further processing.

Note: *Imports from that region

Section 2: Actual Performance

Origin

DesƟ naƟ on

NAFTA LaƟ n America Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Asia Others Total

NAFTA 156.9 1.0 162.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 569.1 0.8 890.5

La n

America 0.6 - 37.4 - - - 14.2 - 52.2

Western

Europe 1.6 0.2 2,138.9 97.4 6.4 0.7 517.4 0.0 2,762.7

Eastern

Europe 0.0 0.1 396.8 70.8 0.0 - 28.0 0.1 495.7

Middle East 0.4 - 47.7 - 1.2 0.8 39.3 - 89.4

Africa 0.3 - 18.9 - 1.5 1.1 23.6 - 45.3

Asia 4.8 0.0 35.1 - 0.3 - 592.6 0.2 633.1

Others 0.0 - 6.4 - 0.1 - 44.6 0.0 51.2

Total 164.6 1.3 2,843.3 168.3 9.9 2.7 1,828.9 1.1 5,020.1

Origin

DesƟ naƟ on

NAFTA LaƟ n America Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Asia Others Total

NAFTA 168.5 1.2 206.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 574.0 0.2 950.6

La n

America 0.2 0.0 49.4 - 0.0 - 13.2 - 62.8

Western

Europe 3.3 0.6 2,256.3 112.9 5.7 0.2 471.1 0.0 2,850.1

Eastern

Europe - 1.3 423.9 58.7 0.0 - 18.4 - 502.3

Middle

East* 0.1 - 31.0 - - - 56.5 - 87.6

Africa* 0.0 - 29.5 - - - 33.2 - 62.6

Asia 1.1 0.0 14.0 - 0.5 0.0 563.1 0.0 578.7

Others - - 10.3 0.0 - - 35.9 0.0 46.2

Total 173.2 3.1 3,020.8 171.7 6.5 0.3 1,765.1 0.3 5,140.9

Table 4: Foreign trade exports for stainless steel scrap in 2011 (above) and 2012 (below). (1,000 metric tonnes.)

Note: *Imports from that region

Figure 6: Apparent stainless steel use by region: 2000 - 2012p

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Americas Asia (excl. China) China Others 2011 2012 p

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

Western Europe/Africa Central/Eastern Europe Americas Asia (excl. China) China 19,187

24,546

28,146 26,218

24,904 20,690

22,840 24,570

28,706

31,094

33,621 -1.0% +7.8% +10.4% +7.6% -0.1% +16.9% -2.0% -6.8% -5.0% +24.9% N/A

2012p 35,363 +5.2%

Figure 7: Stainless crude steel producƟ on by region: 2001 - 2012p (in ‘000 metric tonnes)

Section 2: Actual Performance

*Major correcƟ on of Chinese data for 2011, not comparable with previous years.

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20072008 2009 2010 2011*

CrNi grades (300 series)

CrMn grades (200 series) Cr grades (400 series) Other/not known

22.1 22.0 23.0 22.8 29.9 25.0

23.0 24.5 28.1 27.927.8

71.3 70.6 65.5 64.7 55.2 53.2

70.6 62.3 56.9 57.456.5

5.7 6.5 9.4 10.4 13.4 20.4

5.5 10.9 12.5 13.613.2

2012p

26.954.317.4 24.425.5 24.126.0 51.557.4 49.954.7 23.015.6 24.517.8

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2012p

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012p

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

2011*

Figure 9: Global stainless crude steel producƟ on by quarter (in ‘000 metric tonnes)

*Major correcƟ on of Chinese data for 2011 and 2012. Not fully comparable with previous years (especially CrMn grades).f *Major correcƟ on of Chinese data for 2011, not comparable with previous years.

Section 3: Potential

Stainless Steel Demand Index

Index: 2005 = 100

80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120

Real Stainless Steel Use 80

85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120

Figure 10: Stainless steel demand versus real stainless steel use - Europe (Q1 2002 to Q4 2012p)

Figure 11: Stainless steel demand versus real stainless steel use - The Americas (Q1 2002 to Q4 2012p)

Stainless Steel Demand Index 60

70 80 90 100 110 120

Real Stainless Steel Use

Index: 2005 = 100

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Real stainless steel use: portion of apparent stainless steel use which is really used to produce goods containing stainless steel.

Where demand exceeds use, subs tu on of stainless steel by other materials may be occurring.

Figure 12: Stainless steel demand versus real stainless steel use - Asia, excluding China (Q1 2002 to Q4 2012p)

Figure 13: Stainless steel demand versus real stainless steel use - China (Q1 2002 to Q4 2012p)

Stainless Steel Demand Index 80

90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Real Stainless Steel Use

Index: 2005 = 100

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Stainless Steel Demand Index 60

80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280

Real Stainless Steel Use

Index: 2005 = 100

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280

Stainless Steel Demand Index:

aggregated produc on index weighted by main stainless-using industrial sectors, and by market size.

Figure 14: Stainless steel demand versus real stainless steel use - World (Q1 2002 to Q4 2012p)

Stainless Steel Demand Index 80

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

Real Stainless Steel Use

Index: 2005 = 100

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

Section 3: Potential

Taiwan, China Korea

Japan Ital y Sweden

GermanySpain USA Australia

United Kingdom France

Thailand South Afric

a ChinaTurkey

Russia Mexico

Brazil Indonesia India 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2000 2005 2010

Figure 15: Comparison of per-capita direct and indirect use of stainless steel - selected countries - 2000, 2005 and 2010 (kilograms/capita). Source: IMF, Yale.

Figure 16: Per-capita direct and indirect use of stainless steel (kilograms/capita) for selected countries - 2005 (above) and 2010 (below). Source: IMF, Yale.

Taiwan, China Korea

Japan Ital y Sweden

GermanySpain USA Australia

United Kingdom France

Thailand South Afric

a ChinaTurkey

Russia Mexico

Brazil Indonesia India 0

5 10 15 20 25

Taiwan, China Korea

Japan Ital y Sweden

Germany Spain USA

Australia United Kingdom

France

Thailand South Afric

a

China Turk

ey Russia Mexico

Brazil Indonesia India 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0 5 10 15 20 25 US$5,000

US$10,000 US$15,000 US$20,000 US$25,000 US$30,000 US$35,000 US$40,000 US$45,000

Taiwan, China Germany

United Kingdom

Thailand

Spain

Korea

Mexico

China India

Australia

Italy

Indonesia

France

Sweden

Turkey

USA

Japan

South Africa Brazil

Russia

kg/capita GDP/capita

2005 (above) and 2010 (below). Source: IMF, Yale.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

US$5,000 US$10,000 US$15,000 US$20,000 US$25,000 US$30,000 US$35,000 US$40,000 US$45,000 US$50,000

Taiwan, China Germany

United Kingdom

Thailand

Spain Korea

Mexico

China India

Australia

Italy

Indonesia

France

Sweden

Turkey USA

Japan

South Africa Brazil

Russia

kg/capita GDP/capita

Section 3: Potential

Taiwan, China

Korea

Japan Italy

Germany South Afric

USA a

United Kingdom

France

Spain Russia China

Mexico

Brazil India

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Direct use Total use

kg/capita

(plus trade balance of stainless containing goods) in 2005 (above) and 2010 (below).

Source: IMF, Yale, Vale Inco.

Taiwan, China

Korea

Japan Italy

Germany South Afric

USA a

United Kingdom

France

Spain Rus China

sia Mexico

Brazil India

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Direct use Total use

kg/capita

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