Current Status of Generation in Pakistan
The need for additional generating capacity in Pakistan is clearly demonstrated by the data provided in Table 4.1 and Table 4.2. In Figure 4.3 it is evident that that the current generating capability is 16,804 MW in the summer and 12,840 MW in the winter, when hydro capability is reduced. Table 4.1 shows that the current Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) demand, including 700 MW exported to the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) is 20,151 MW. This data would indicate a current shortfall of 7,311 MW in the winter and 3,347 MW in the summer.
Demand Forecast Assumptions
Table 4.1 contains the predicted increase in demand for electrical power up until 2030.
These are based upon an approximate 8% per annum increase in demand by the distribution companies (DISCOS).
No seasonal variations in the data are accounted for in Table 4.1 and it is clear that there are significant variations in demand caused by the need for space heating and air conditioning.
In Figure 4.3 the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) data has been adjusted to take account of the seasonal changes in generation capacity. These results indicate that during the winter season there will be insufficient generation to fulfill demand through the period considered. However, during the summer season generating capacity should exceed demand in the period 2014-15. It should of course be borne in mind that generation capability rarely meets the installed capacity as plant will be out of service due to planned and forced outages and that the development of some of the plants included in the planting program are behind schedule.
Table 4.1: Predicted Growth in Electrical Demand (DISCO-WISE Load Forecast (MW))
Name 2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
Auxiliary Consumption 681 737 798 863 938 1008 1086 1138 1222 1327 1440 1559 1686 1823 1966
PEPCO Demand w/o Export to Karachi Electricity Supply Company (KESC)
19451 21055 22791 24656 26788 28813 31022 32504 34918 37907 41132 44557 48185 52077 56163
Export to KESC 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700
Peshawar Electric Power Company (PEPCO) Demand
20151 21755 23491 25356 27488 29513 31722 33204 35618 38607 41832 45257 48885 52777 56863
Source: Provided by NTDC on 4 August 2010
Table 4.2: Existing Installed Capacity of PEPCO System as of 30 June 2010
Sr.
No. Name of Power Station Fuel Installed Capacity)
Sub Total GENCO-III 1965 1530
17 FBC Lakhra Coal 150 30
Sub Total GENCO-IV 150 30
Sub Total GENCOs 4829 3580
Sub Total (WAPDA+GENCOs) 11273 9846 5883
Nuc 18 Nuclear Plants
Chashma Nuclear (PAEC)
325 300
Total Capacity (Public) 11598 10146 6183
Private Sector Hydel 19 Jagran Hydro 30 30
26 Southern Electric Power Co Ltd (SEPCOL)
Sr.
No. Name of Power Station Fuel Installed Capacity)
Capability (MW)
(MW) Summer Winter
33 Liberty Power Project Gas 235 211
34 Altern Energy Ltd (AEL) Gas 31 31
35 Attock Generation PP FO 163 156
36 ATLAS Power Gas 219 219
37 Engro PP Daharki Sindh Gas 227 217
38 Saif PP Sahiwai Punjab RFO/Gas 225 225
39 Orient PP Balloki Punjab RFO/Gas 225 225
40 Nishat PP Near Lahore Punjab RFO 200 200
Sub-Total (Thermal IPPs) 7050 6484
41 Gulf Rental P.P Gujranwala Punj RFO 62 62
Sub Total (Rental) 62 62
Total Thermal (IPPs) 7112 6546
Total Capacity (Private) 7223 6657
Total Hydel (Public and Private) 6555 6377 2414
Total Thermal (Public and Private)
12226 10426
Total (PEPCO System) 18821 16803 12840
Source: Provided by NTDC on 4 August 2010
Figure 4.3: Predicted Increase in System demand and Generating Capability
Climate Change
According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is defined as a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. In this context, climate change is related to global warming. The scientific consensus, supported
by a strong credible body of evidence, is that the climate is changing and that it is largely down to human actions.
The current discussions are focused on stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is considered to be the most important of the greenhouse gasses and accounts for the around 60% of the enhanced greenhouse effect.
The concentrations in the atmosphere increased from approximately 280 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial times to 382 ppm in 2006, representing a 36% increase.
Production of electricity from fossil fuels is considered to be a major source of CO2 emissions. As of 2007, total installed power capacity in Pakistan was 19,505 MW, of which 65% originates from fossil fuels, 2% from nuclear and the remaining 33% from hydro.
To meet the increased demand for electricity as highlighted in Section 4.1.4, the potential of hydropower and its inherent benefits cannot be neglected.
Advantages of Hydropower
Hydropower is already a major contributor for world electricity. A modern plant like Tarbela is capable of converting the available energy in water to electricity with efficiency in excess of 90%. Provided the environmental, ecological and social / political effects are well understood, hydro schemes offer some very desirable characteristics for a power plant.
Hydro schemes can supply electricity without unpredictable network input variations and offer the potential for rapid response to changing energy demands because the water can be released at short notice. The input of power can match the annual variations in demand because water can be stored for a length of time.
Technologies associated with hydropower are well established and can be very reliable.
Of the capital costs for a hydro scheme, 80% is typically attributed to civil works. For a scheme like Tarbela where the dam is already in existence, construction costs will be comparatively very low and hence the rate of return very high particularly given the long life expectancy that is typical for hydro schemes.
Needs Case and the Project Objectives
Presently in Pakistan only 65 – 70% of the population has access to electricity and the Government is committed to provide electricity access to all households in the minimum possible time. The country is currently facing extensive power shortages. The present electricity demand-supply gap, coupled with consistent growth in demand (7-8% per annum), clearly indicates the critical need for enhancing the country’s current power generation capability.
The power shortfall situation is being tackled through load management by shedding and supplying power to various areas and sectors on a rotation basis. Hence industries, services and businesses are directly affected with some being shut down or running at far less than optimum for periods of time.
The power generated from the Project will be supplied to the national grid for further transmission to various load centers to augment existing supplies. The additional generation will help to meet the existing demand for electricity. It may also support the establishment of new enterprises, which could boost commercial and economic activities
and enhance job opportunities in the country. The Project proposes to add 1,410 MW of additional generation to the existing 3,478 MW capacity at Tarbela.