Resultados y comparación con otros estudios.

Bulgaria bases its widespread support for EU enlargement to the Balkans on a series of normative and pragmatic arguments.

First and foremost, there is the normative argument of solidarity, which is about Bulgaria doing its fair share to support the EU integration of its Balkan neighbours, just as it was itself supported to join the Union in 2007.

The other important reason is stability. Although the security challenges of the 1990s are far behind us, there are still lingering concerns about institutional, economic and social-political instability in the Balkans, including the fragility of BiH, the inter-ethnic tensions in fYROM, and political volatility in Albania. For Bulgaria, the prospect of EU accession can often be an important factor in building national consensus and keeping the Balkan countries on the right track.

Next to stability is modernisation – or the transformative effect that Bulgaria believes the EU integration process can have on the societies in the region, such as in terms of institution building,

436 _{Bulgaria suspended work on South Stream in 2014 after European Commission criticism and upcoming infringement}

procedures on tenders. On 1 December 2014, the Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of the project and blamed Bulgaria for this; see “Russia drops South Stream gas pipeline plan”, BBC, 1 December 2014, available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30283571 (last accessed on: 9 February 2015).

437 _{“Bulgarian PM pushes gas hub idea at energy conference in Sofia”, Sofia Globe, 9 February 2015, available at:}

http://sofiaglobe.com/2015/02/09/bulgarian-pm-pushes-gas-hub-idea-at-energy-conference-in-sofia/ (last accessed on: 9 February 2015).

438 _{“Sofia to host meeting for development of European Energy Union”, Bulgarian Telegraph Agency, 4 February 2015,}

available at: http://www.bta.bg/en/c/DF/id/1008213. See also the European Commission’s press release on Energy security and interconnectivity in Bulgaria and the other countries of South East Europe – a priority for the European Commission, press release, 12 January 2015, available at: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-3180_en.htm (last accessed on: 9 February 2015).

439 _{The Southern Gas Corridor is planned to bring Azeri gas to Europe through Turkey and the Balkans. “Šefčovič gives his}

blessing to Southern Gas Corridor”, Euractiv, 13 February 2015, available at: http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/sefcovic-gives-his-blessing-southern-gas-corridor-312105 (last accessed on: 14 February 2015).

democracy, political culture, and the treatment of minorities. Bulgaria believes in the beneficial effects that the quest for EU membership can have.

Among the more pragmatic arguments, an important one for Bulgaria is “linking up geographically” with the rest of Europe, given that the Balkan aspirants stand at present between Bulgaria and the ‘core’ EU member states. These geostrategic considerations in supporting the Balkans’ EU accession are coupled with Bulgaria’s plans for a better infrastructure and transport system, which could facilitate Bulgaria’s seamless communication with the rest of the EU, benefiting human contacts and the economy. This argument is especially relevant for the border regions, which had been treated in the communist era as buffer zones between potential enemies, with Greece and Turkey being in NATO and Tito’s Yugoslavia being viewed with suspicion after its rift with the rest of the Soviet world, and were thus deliberately isolated, and it is from this perspective that Serbia is so vital to the enlargement process.

Economists argue that EU enlargement will also greatly benefit the region and individual countries within it, as it will guarantee stability and predictability in a much larger, single zone. As such, EU membership is expected to make the Balkans more attractive for investors and to encourage trans- national interactions. For instance, exchange and travel between Bulgaria, Romania and Greece intensified markedly after the first two joined the EU in 2007. In a similar manner, Bulgaria’s own companies could then take advantage of the Balkans’ EU entry and become much more active in these countries, which is currently not the case.

Data on trade and tourism illustrate the close ties between Bulgaria and its Balkan neighbours. In 2014, 53% of Bulgarian citizens have travelled to EU countries, including 29% to Greece and Romania, and 43% in total have travelled to three non-EU Balkan neighbours, that is, Turkey, Serbia and fYROM.

Table 14:3:Visits of Bulgarian citizens abroad (2014)

Source: National Statistical Institute (2013)

Twelve percent of Bulgarian exports and 8% of its imports are with the Balkan aspirant countries (this includes Turkey too), and the vast majority of its trade is with EU member states (that is, 50% of imports and 62% of exports). This backs the argument that embracing the Balkans in the EU will help Bulgaria’s trade and economy. EU integration will greatly benefit regional trade, as well as further facilitating the access of Bulgaria to its most important trade and investment partners in the Union.

Total 4,157,946 100%

EU 2,211,496 53%

Other European countries 1,825,204 44%

Turkey 1,106,913 27% Macedonia 327,033 8% Serbia 316,146 8% Greece 866,609 21% Romania 321,546 8% Germany 239,310 6% Italy 126,313 3% Austria 110,085 3% Spain 102,417 2% France 95,623 2% UK 101,737 2%

Table 14.4: Imports to Bulgaria by main trade regions (mil. EUR)

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 (%)

(mil. EUR) 21861.2 25094.2 16875.4 19244.8 23406.2 25459.1 25828.1 26189.3 100%

EU countries 11401.9 12781.5 9034.8 9881.7 11372 12154 12585.3 13199.5 50%

Balkan countries 1996.6 1903.9 1276.1 1559 1614.4 1746.4 1963.7 2042.1 8%

Other European countries 4488.6 5583.6 3210.6 4001.5 4881.8 6126.2 5513.6 4900.6 19%

America 1322.9 1338.3 982.4 1030.7 1684.3 1655 1634.7 1604.5 6%

Asia 2454.2 3240.8 2207.1 2576.9 3621.2 3529.2 3619.7 3817 15%

Other countries 196.9 246.1 164.4 195.1 232.5 248.3 511.2 625.6 2%

Source: Bulgarian National Bank (2015)

Table 14.5: Exports to Bulgaria by main trade regions (mil. EUR)

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 (%)

(mill. EUR) 13511.9 15204 11699.2 15561.2 20264.3 20770.2 22271.4 22115.8 100%

EU countries 8345.5 9245 7665.7 9551.1 12688.5 12237.9 13351.1 13781.8 62%

Balkan countries 2541.2 2524.2 1614.8 2341.5 2825.3 2931 2887.6 2558.1 12%

Other European countries 713.7 899 634.3 1183.4 1702.6 1828.8 1708.6 1160.8 5%

America 543.5 429.6 265.5 324.9 469.7 578.4 463.7 426.9 2%

Asia 1068.4 1450.1 910.2 1341.7 1556.4 2139.7 2592.2 2558.1 12%

Other countries 299.6 656.1 608.7 818.6 1021.8 1054.4 1268.2 1229.5 6%

Source: Bulgarian National Bank (2015)

Bulgaria’s specific interests and policies in the Balkans vary according to the Balkan country in question. For example, minority issues are important in the case of fYROM and Serbia, which are home to Bulgarian communities (about 18,500 in Serbia; the number in fYROM is disputed and varies between 1,600 self-declared in the census and more than 51,000 who acquired Bulgarian citizenship by claiming Bulgarian ethnic origin in the period 2001-2013). But also, more generally, Bulgaria is concerned with the problem of corruption and organised crime – which is common to all the Balkan countries – as well as with the trade and transport infrastructure in the region, which is in serious need of upgrade. And energy security has recently grown into an equally important field of regional cooperation for Bulgaria, after the suspension of the South Stream in 2014. In contrast, illegal migration and asylum seekers are an issue which Bulgaria shares with Turkey, as the two countries are on one of the main routes for migrants from MENA countries, especially Syria, into the EU. Bilateral cooperation is key in this case and for that reason Bulgaria had high stakes in the negotiation and ratification in 2013-2014 of the EU- Turkey readmission agreement for a more effective migration and border management.

14.8 CONCLUSIONS

Bulgaria presents itself as a staunch supporter of enlargement towards the Balkans, even if according to experts440 _{it does not always grasp the opportunity to lead with a more active policy. The successful}

transformation and integration of the Balkans in the EU is of great importance to Bulgaria. The new Foreign Minister, Daniel Mitov, who took office in November 2014, went as far as to assert that an excessive delay of enlargement would pose a risk for Bulgaria, and so his country was committed to advocating and pushing for EU widening.

440 _{Interviews for this project, 2014.}

Bulgaria is aware of the complex context – including economic and political crises, as well as geopolitical challenges – that diverts EU attention and resources away from enlargement. However, Sofia still believes that as long as the aspirant countries continue to progress and fulfil the membership conditionality, they should be admitted. At the same time, Bulgaria is beginning to question the capacity of the Balkan countries to meet the requirements for EU accession: insufficient political will from some elites in the region, who seem to prefer the status quo of an unfinished integration, democratic deficits and severe socio-economic problems, as well as a growing trend in nationalism and authoritarianism are all seen as incompatible with European values. Likewise, the possibility that the Balkan countries might be side-tracked from the EU path and become a field of geopolitical competition in the standoff between the West and Russia has emerged during the Ukrainian conflict, fuelling concern.441

Experts suggest that Bulgaria’s own experience – both positive and negative – could provide useful lessons for the rest of the Balkans. This refers, for instance, to Bulgaria’s decision in the early 1990s to denounce nationalism as a base for policies, meeting EU membership conditionality before accession in 2007, but also to the ongoing judiciary reform and fight against corruption carried out by Sofia in the framework of the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism442_{. Moreover, OSI-Sofia’s European}

Catch-Up Index443 _{demonstrates that, in addition to the previous East-West divide between new and}

old member states, a new North-South divide has been gradually emerging. And while the Central European and Baltic countries are good and dynamic performers, advancing towards desired European levels of development, the countries in Southeast Europe occupy the bottom places of the ranking. The fact that the Balkan countries show no significant progress in ‘catching up’ with the rest of the EU is a major source of concern and one of the main arguments in favour of the EU staying committed and actively helping the region to complete the European integration process.

441 _{Interview with Bulgarian expert, February 2015.}

442 _{The EU decided to establish a special “Cooperation and Verification Mechanism” (CVM) for Bulgaria and Romania to help}

these countries address shortcomings in judicial reform, corruption and organised crime. More information available at: http://ec.europa.eu/cvm/index_en.htm; (last accessed on: 9 February 2015).

443 _{Lessenski (2013), op. cit.}

ROMANIA