Jurisprudencia de la Corte Suprema de Justicia

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Agence France Trésor

The inflation expectations illustrated here reflect average annual inflation over a 10-year forward horizon. Yields on 5-year bonds in the US point to a rise of closer to 1.25 percentage points per annum in inflation expectations over the next five years. Clearly there has been some upward drift in inflation expectations since the oil price began to rise, but the rise has been relatively modest in the Euro Area. This suggests that inflation expectations over a 10- year horizon are relatively well anchored, with consumers expecting monetary authorities to keep inflation in check.

Inflation expectations play a key role in our forecasts for wage growth. We utilise model-based expectations that embed some degree of credibility in the inflation target, but allow for some drift in prices. If wage bargainers expect the Central Bank to be more strict in its response to inflation than our model- based rules suggest outcomes may be different from those suggested by the model. Real wage growth has shown some moderation in major economies, and real wages have actually fallen in Germany over this period. If wages are growing less rapidly than forecast, this suggests that second-round inflationary effects from the rise in the oil price will be weaker than anticipated. A simple dynamic model for wages can be expressed as:

[

]

α

α

π

α

π

ε

λ

α

+

−

−

+

+

+

−

+

=

∆

_{− − − −} e

U

prod

p

wage

wage)

ln(

)

ln(

)

ln(

)

ln(

)

(1

)ln(

)

ln(

_{1 1 1 1 2 1 3 3}

In the long run, wages move in line with producer prices at factor cost (p) and trend productivity (prod). In the short-term, wages adjust to clear the labour market, where U is the unemployment rate, and move with a weighted average of current consumer inflation (π) and expected consumer inflation (πe_{). We}

assume expected inflation embodies rational expectations that look forward one period. These weights (

α

3) are estimated for each country and reflect the

extent to which wage bargaining has exhibited forward-looking behaviour in the past. Any unexplained movement in wages is captured in the error term (

ε

).

Figure 1.4.2 illustrates the residuals on a set of wage equations for the G7 economies that were estimated in the format above. Clearly, since 2003, when the oil price began to rise, in most countries the residual has been more negative than in the previous three-year period.

Figure 1.4.2: Average residual on wage equations

Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US

-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 av erage % res idual 2000-2 2003-5

This decline is most pronounced in Germany, but is also evident in France, the UK, Canada and Japan. The relationship is less clear for the US and Italy, although the average US residual for 2003-2005 is smaller than in 2000-2002. These developments might lead us to conclude that second-round inflation effects are likely to be stronger in the US than elsewhere, and within Europe are likely to be stronger in Italy than the other large economies. This is consistent with our global inflation projections reported in Appendix table 3, where inflation in the US is expected to exceed 3 per cent both this year and next, and inflation is Italy is expected to outpace both Germany and France this year and next if we ignore the impact of the rise in VAT on German inflation in 2007.

The observed fall in the wage residual could be driven by a number of factors. Inflation expectations may be lower than our model allows, with consumers consistently under-predicting actual inflation. Wage bargaining behaviour may be more forward looking than it has been in the recent past, or the bargaining power of employers may have increased. This could reflect rising globalisation, as a number of firms have managed to keep wages in check by threatening to move production to lower cost regions. The equilibrium unemployment rate may have come down, due to labour market reforms. The shift could also be explained by a rise in the profit share of income at the expense of the labour

share. This could happen in response to a rise in capital augmenting technical progress, for example.

Any or all of these factors may be contributing to the unexpectedly weak wage growth in the major economies. In any case, it suggests that pass through of the oil price to inflation will be weaker than suggested by the model simulations reported in our October 2005 Report, and we identified the relative weakness of inflationary pressures in the Euro Area in our last Report. In order to analyse the effect of lower inflation expectations on wages and headline inflation, we undertake a model simulation with NiGEM. We reduce inflation expectations endogenously by 0.5 percentage points a year for three years in all the Euro Area countries. The size of the shock was calibrated so that it is just enough to ‘soak up’ the negative residual on our Euro Area wage equations for 2003-2005. Lower expectations feed into the wage bargain, and hence into costs, and as a result of this factor alone inflation would be around 0.1 percentage points a year lower than it would otherwise have been. In addition, output would be marginally stronger, as we can see from Figure 1.4.3. The impact of the shock is strongest in Germany, and this is consistent with the pattern of residuals illustrated in Figure 1.4.2.

Figure 1.4.3: Impact of 0.5 percentage point lower inflation expectations in Euro Area 2003 2004 2005 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1

% point difference from base

Annex Table 1: Summary of Key Forecast Indicators for Euro Areaa

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Output Growth Rate 1.0 0.7 1.8 1.4 2.2 2.0

Inflation Rate 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2

Unemployment Rate 8.3 8.7 8.9 8.5 8.1 7.8

Gov. Balance as % GDP -2.6 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -2.4 -2.2

a GDP data shown in the tables are adjusted for working-day variation.

Annex Table 2: Real GDP in Major Economies World OECD NAFTA China

EU- 25

Euro

Area USA Japan Germany France Italy UK Annual percentage changes

1995- 2001 3.6 2.9 3.4 8.9 2.7 2.6 3.4 1.0 1.9 2.6 2.0 3.0 2002 3.0 1.6 1.7 9.1 1.2 1 1.6 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.4 2 2003 4.0 2.0 2.6 10 1.2 0.7 2.7 1.8 -0.2 0.9 0.4 2.5 2004 5.1 3.3 4.1 10.1 2.2 1.8 4.2 2.3 1.1 2.1 1.0 3.2 2005 4.6 2.8 3.4 9.9 1.6 1.4 3.5 2.7 1.1 1.4 0.0 1.8 2006 4.7 3 3.0 9.2 2.4 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.2 1.0 2.4 2007 4.4 2.7 3.1 8.2 2.3 2.0 3.0 2.1 1.5 2.0 1.4 2.7

Annex Table 3: Private Consumption Deflator in Major Economies OECD NAFTA China EU

Euro

Area USA Japan Germany France Italy UK Annual percentage changes

1995- 2001 2.3 2.7 4.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 -0.2 1.0 1.2 3.2 2.4 2002 1.5 1.8 -0.8 1.9 2.0 1.4 -1.4 1.2 1.0 3.1 1.5 2003 1.7 2.1 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 -1 1.5 1.1 2.5 2.0 2004 2 2.7 3.9 1.8 1.9 2.6 -0.7 1.4 1.5 2.2 1.3 2005 2.1 2.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.8 -0.8 1.3 1.2 2 2.1 2006 2.5 3.3 2.9 2.2 2.2 3.1 0.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.2 2007 2.6 3.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.2 0.2 2.3 1.7 2.1 2.2

Annex Table 4: World Trade Volume and Prices

World trade volume

World export prices in $

Oil price ($ per barrel)a Annual percentage changes

1995-2001 7.4 -1.6 19.3 2002 3.4 0.6 24.4 2003 4.9 9.2 27.8 2004 8.1 8.1 35.9 2005 6.6 3.9 51.8 2006 6.9 -0.9 58.9 2007 6.0 2.5 56.0 a

Based on the unweighted average of the Brent, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and Dubai oil prices.

Annex Table 5: Interest Rates

Short-term interest rates Long-term interest rates

USA Japan

Euro

Area UK USA Japan Euro Area UK

2002 1.7 0.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 1.2 4.9 4.9 2003 1.2 0.0 2.3 3.7 4.0 1.1 4.2 4.5 2004 1.6 0.0 2.1 4.6 4.3 1.5 4.1 4.9 2005 3.5 0.0 2.2 4.7 4.3 1.3 3.4 4.4 2006 4.8 0.1 2.7 4.5 4.6 1.6 3.6 4.2 2007 5.0 0.6 3.1 4.5 4.7 1.8 3.9 4.3 2005Q1 2.8 0.0 2.1 4.9 4.3 1.3 3.7 4.7 2005Q2 3.2 0.0 2.1 4.8 4.2 1.1 3.4 4.4 2005Q3 3.7 0.0 2.1 4.6 4.2 1.4 3.3 4.3 2005Q4 4.3 0.0 2.3 4.6 4.5 1.5 3.4 4.3 2006Q1 4.6 0.1 2.5 4.5 4.5 1.5 3.5 4.1 2006Q2 4.8 0.1 2.6 4.5 4.6 1.5 3.6 4.2 2006Q3 5.0 0.2 2.8 4.5 4.7 1.6 3.7 4.2 2006Q4 5.0 0.3 2.9 4.5 4.7 1.7 3.8 4.2 2007Q1 5.0 0.4 3 4.5 4.7 1.8 3.8 4.2 2007Q2 5.0 0.6 3.1 4.5 4.8 1.8 3.9 4.2 2007Q3 5.0 0.7 3.2 4.5 4.8 1.8 4.0 4.3 2007Q4 4.9 0.9 3.3 4.5 4.8 1.8 4.0 4.3

Annex Table 6: Effective Exchange Rates

USA Japan Euro Area Germany France Italy UK

In document Robótica y responsabilidad civil: reflexiones en torno al fundamento del deber de reparar (página 160-165)