6DQWDQGHU 3iJ
$
$
/
/
*8
*8
1
1
$
$
6
6
&
&
2
2
1
1
6
6
,
,
'
'
(
(
5
5
$
$
&
&
,
,
2
2
1
1
(
(
66
66
2
2
%
%
5
5
((
((
/
/
3
3
5
5
2
2
%
%
/
/
(
(
0$
0$
'
'
(
(
/
/
(
(
6
6
7
7
,
,
/
/
2
2
<
<
/
/
$
$
)
)
2
2
5
5
0$
0$
'
'
(
(
/
/
$
$
5
5
7
7
(
(
3
3
$
$
/
/
(
(
2
2
/
/
Ì
Ì
7
7
,
,
&
&
2
2
(GXDUGR3$/$&,23e5(= 'HSDUWDPHQWRGH&LHQFLDV+LVWyULFDV 8QLYHUVLGDGGH&DQWDEULD
,,11775522''88&&&&,,ÐÐ11
/DHYROXFLyQ\HOFDPELRHQODPDQHUDGH UHSUHVHQWDU ORV GLVWLQWRV WHPDV TXH DSDUHFHQ HQ HO DUWHUXSHVWUHSDOHROtWLFRKDVLGRXQDVSHFWRDPSOLD\ GLYHUVDPHQWH WUDWDGR D OR ODUJR GH OD KLVWRULD GH OD LQYHVWLJDFLyQ7DQWR+%UHXLOFRPR/HURL*RXUKDQ PDQWXYLHURQODLGHDGHODH[LVWHQFLDGHXQDVHULHGH WUDQVIRUPDFLRQHVIRUPDOHVTXHDORODUJRGHOWLHPSR \ FRQ XQ FDUiFWHU JHQHUDO DIHFWDURQ D WRGR HO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR RFFLGHQWDO $PERV DXWRUHV SRU WDQWR GLIHUHQFLDURQXQDVHULHGHIDVHVRHVWLORVTXHPDUFD EDQGLVWLQWDVHWDSDVHQ ODHYROXFLyQGHODUWHUXSHVWUH 6LQ HPEDUJR HQ ORV~OWLPRVDxRVODDSOLFDFLyQGHO &$06HQODGDWDFLyQGHSLJPHQWRVSDOHROtWL FRVKDTXHEUDGRODRUJDQL]DFLyQHVWLOtVWLFD\FURQROy JLFD SURSXHVWD SRU /HURL*RXUKDQ \ PDQWHQLGD SRU VXVFRQWLQXDGRUHV$KRUDELHQ¢ODQRDGHFXDFLyQGH OD GLYLVLyQ HVWLOtVWLFD GH /HURL*RXUKDQ D ORV QXHYRV GDWRV VXSRQH UHQXQFLDU D OD LGHQWLILFDFLyQ GH XQD VHULHGHWHQGHQFLDVGHFDPELRIRUPDOHVTXHVHVXFH GHQHQHOWLHPSRDIHFWDQGRDOFRQMXQWRGHODUWHUX SHVWUHHXURSHR"
$$335522;;,,00$$&&,,ÐÐ11++,,66772255,,22**55ÉÉ)),,&&$$ 'HVGHORVLQLFLRVGHODLQYHVWLJDFLyQGHODUWH SDULHWDOVHREVHUYDURQGLIHUHQFLDVGHHVWLORHQWUHODV GLVWLQWDVILJXUDVUHSUHVHQWDGDVHOPLVPR06DQ]GH 6DXWXROD\DORYLVOXPEUD
6HUiQ%UHXLO\&DUWHKLODFORVSULPH URVHQVHxDODUGLIHUHQWHVHWDSDVHQHOGHVDUUROORGHO DUWHUXSHVWUHSDOHROtWLFR3DUDHOORUHFXUUHQDODFRP SDUDFLyQFRQHODUWHPRELOLDUDODQiOLVLVGHODVVXSHU SRVLFLRQHV\DXQDFRQFHSFLyQHYROXFLRQLVWDGHODUWH (QSRVWHULRUHVREUDV%UHXLOPDQWHQGUiSODQWHDPLHQ WRV VLPLODUHV DXQTXH PiV GHSXUDGRV ILJ %UHXLO \ 6LQ HPEDUJR FRPR VHxDOD DFHUWDGD PHQWH /HURL*RXUKDQ HQ QLQJ~Q PRPHQWR GHVXGLODWDGDYLGDLQYHVWLJDGRUDHO$EDWH%UHXLOVH SUHRFXSy SRU VLVWHPDWL]DU \ DLVODU DTXHOORV UDVJRV IRUPDOHV HQ ORV TXH VH ILMDED SDUD HVWDEOHFHU GLVWLQ FLRQHVHVWLOtVWLFDVVDOYRHQVXDQiOLVLVGHODSHUVSHFWL YD \ GDED SRU VXSXHVWD OD SHUFHSFLyQ HYLGHQWH GH GLFKRVUDVJRVGLIHUHQFLDGRUHVPDQWHQLHQGRGHPDQH UDLPSOtFLWDTXHODHYROXFLyQGHODVIRUPDVHQHODUWH SDULHWDO WUDQVFXUUtD GH DTXHOODV PiV VLPSOHV D RWUDV PiVFRPSOHMDV
/HURL*RXUKDQFULWLFDGHPDQHUDHIHFWLYDHO HVTXHPDGHO$EDWH%UHXLO\VHSUHRFXSDSRUREMHWL
YDUDTXHOORVUDVJRVTXHOHSHUPLWHQGLIHUHQFLDUHVWL ORVFRQFUHWRVDORVTXHWDPELpQGDXQYDORUFURQROy JLFR $ SDUWLU GH HVWD ODERU GH HVSHFLILFDFLyQ GH FD UDFWHUtVWLFDV IRUPDOHV \ GH XQD EXHQD FRPSDUDFLyQ FRQHODUWHPRELOLDUGLVWLQJXLUiVXVFRQRFLGRVFXDWUR HVWLORV ILJ TXH DSOLFD FRQ OHYHV PRGLILFDFLRQHV UHJLRQDOHV DO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR GH WRGD (XURSD 2FFL GHQWDO 6X FRQFHSFLyQ VH EDVD DO LJXDO TXH OD GH %UHXLOHQODLGHDGHXQDHYROXFLyQOLQHDO\SURJUHVLYD GHODUWHSDOHROtWLFRHQHOWLHPSR\HQGRGHORIRUPDO PHQWH VLPSOH D OR FRPSOHMR (O SURSLR /HURL *RXUKDQQXQFDSODQWHDVXPRGHORFRPRDOJRUtJLGR \FHUUDGRVLHPSUHORFRQFLEHFRQXQFDUiFWHUSURV SHFWLYR SHUR OR VXILFLHQWHPHQWH VyOLGR FRPR SDUD SRGHU DSR\DU HQ pO QR VyOR OD HYROXFLyQ IRUPDO GHO DUWH UXSHVWUH VLQR WDPELpQ OD RUJDQL]DFLyQ FURQROy JLFDGHOPLVPR\WRGRORTXHGHDKtVHGHULYDUD/H URL*RXUKDQ
/DWUDQVFHQGHQFLDGHVXPRGHORHVWLOtVWLFRVH GHMD VHQWLU FRQ UDSLGH] HQODFRPXQLGDGFLHQWtILFD\ PXFKRV LQYHVWLJDGRUHV DSOLFDQ HVWH HVTXHPD GH PD QHUD FRQWLQXDGD HQ VXV WUDEDMRV DXQTXH DOJXQRV YHUiQHQVHJXLGDODGLILFXOWDGGHWUDVODGDUXQPRGHOR WDQJHQHUDODGLIHUHQWHVOXJDUHV\FRPLHQ]DQDUHVDO WDUHOSHVRGHDOJXQDVSDUWLFXODULGDGHVUHJLRQDOHV
/D SULPHUD FUtWLFD FRQWXQGHQWH DO HVTXHPD GH/HURL*RXUKDQYLHQHGHODPDQRGH3 8FNR\$ 5RVHQIHOG\VHFHQWUDWDQWRHQODHVWUXFWXUD FLyQWHPiWLFD\HVSDFLDOSURSXHVWDVSRUGLFKRDXWRU FRPRHQVXPRGHORHVWLOtVWLFR3RUORTXHUHVSHFWDD HVWH ~OWLPR DVSHFWR FULWLFDQ HO SODQWHDPLHQWR TXH DERJDEDSRUXQDHYROXFLyQOHQWD\XQLOLQLDOGHODUWH UXSHVWUH TXH VXSRQtD XQ WUiQVLWR GH ODV REUDV IRU PDOPHQWHPiVVLPSOHVDRWUDVPiVFRPSOHMDV7DP ELpQ OODPDQ OD DWHQFLyQ VREUH OD JUDQ YDULDELOLGDG GHODUWHSDOHROtWLFR\VXHQRUPHSURIXQGLGDGWHPSR UDODILUPDQGRTXHHVWHDUWHHVWXYRVRPHWLGRDP~OWL SOHV LQIOXHQFLDV TXH VH FRUUHVSRQGHQ PiV FRQ XQ MXHJRDOWHUQR\KHWHURJpQHRGHDSDULFLRQHVHVWDQFD PLHQWRV UHJUHVLRQHV TXH FRQ XQD ~QLFD WUDGLFLyQ DUWtVWLFDHQFDPELRSURJUHVLYR
6XVDSUHFLDFLRQHVSURFHGHQGHLGHDVVXJHULGDVSRUOD REVHUYDFLyQ GHO DUWH GH SREODFLRQHV ´SULPLWLYDVµ DFWXDOHV SULQFLSDOPHQWH GHO DUWH DERULJHQ DXVWUDOLD QR(QHVWHFRQWH[WRVXEUD\DODLPSRUWDQFLDGHSRVL EOHVIRUPDVGHDUWHTXHSRUHVWDUUHDOL]DGDVHQVRSRU WHV SHUHFHGHURV QR KDQ OOHJDGR KDVWD QRVRWURV HVFXOWXUDHQPDGHUDSLQWXUDFRUSRUDORVREUHSLHOHV SHURTXHVLQGXGDGHELHURQMXJDUXQSDSHOPX\ DFWLYRHQHORULJHQ\ODHYROXFLyQGHODUWHSDOHROtWLFR DOLJXDOTXHHQIDWL]DODPXOWLWXGGHPRWLYDFLRQHVTXH HVWiQ GHWUiV GHO DUWH GH ORV SXHEORV SULPLWLYRV \ OD GLYHUVLGDGGHFRQWH[WRVVRFLDOHVHQORVTXHpVWHKDGH VHU OHtGR OR TXH VH WUDGXFLUi HQ YDULDQWHV HVWLOtVWLFDV TXHQRWLHQHQXQYDORUFURQROyJLFR
/DDSOLFDFLyQGHO&$06HQODGDWD FLyQ GH ILJXUDV UXSHVWUHV SDOHROtWLFDV D SULQFLSLRV GH ORV DxRV /RUEODQFKHW 9DOODGDVHW DOLL VXSRQHXQJLURHYLGHQWHHQODPDQHUDGHFRQ FHELU HO HVWLOR \ OD FURQRORJtD SRU SDUWH GH XQ JUDQ Q~PHURGHLQYHVWLJDGRUHV(VWRVQXHYRVSODQWHDPLHQ WRVOOHYDUiQD0/RUEODQFKHW\3%DKQD KDEODUGHXQD´HUDSRVWHVWLOtVWLFDµHQORVHVWXGLRVGH DUWHUXSHVWUHHQWHQGLGDFRPROD WUDQVLFLyQGHVGHXQ SHULRGRHQHOFXDOORVHVWXGLRVHVWLOtVWLFRVHUDQXVDGRV GHPDQHUDHVSRQWiQHDSDUDGHVFULELUGDWDU\FRPSD UDUHODUWHSDULHWDOKDFLDRWURHQHOTXHORVHVWLORV\D QRVRQFRQVLGHUDGRVVLVWHPiWLFDPHQWHFRPRLQGLFD GRUHVFURQROyJLFRVVLQRFRPRHOSURGXFWRGHPXOWL WXGGHIDFWRUHV
3HUR VLQ GXGD OD FKLVSD TXH KL]R VDOWDU OD OODPDIXHURQODVGDWDFLRQHVSRU&$06REWH QLGDVHQDOJXQDVILJXUDVGHODFXHYDGH&KDXYHW$U GqFKH SXGLpQGRVH GLIHUHQFLDU GRV FRQMXQWRV GH IHFKDV FRKHUHQWHV 3RU XQ ODGR WHQHPRV WUHV ILJXUD FLRQHV DQLPDOHV GRV ULQRFHURQWHV DIURQWDGRV \ XQ ELVRQWH IHFKDGDV HQWUH XQRV %3 D %3 PLHQWUDV TXH GLVWLQWDV PDUFDV GH DQWRUFKD \ UHVWRVGHFDUEyQKDOODGRVHQHOVXHORVHKDQGDWDGR
HQWUHXQRV %3\%3
/D REWHQFLyQ GH IHFKDV WDQ DQWLJXDV SDUD XQDVUHSUHVHQWDFLRQHVILJXUDWLYDVELHQDFDEDGDV\FRQ XQD DOWD FRPSOHMLGDG WpFQLFD VXSRQH SDUD DOJXQRV LQYHVWLJDGRUHVHOJROSHILQDOSDUDDFDEDUGHGHVPRQ WDU OD LGHD GH XQD HYROXFLyQ OHQWD GHO DUWH SDULHWDO SDOHROtWLFRWDO\FRPRODKDEtDQSURSXHVWR+%UHXLO \ /HURL*RXUKDQ KDFLHQGR VRVSHFKDU TXH ODV WpFQL FDVFRPSOHMDV\ODVIRUPDVHODERUDGDVGHUHSUHVHQWD FLyQ\DHVWDEDQSUHVHQWHVHQIDVHVPX\WHPSUDQDVGHO 3DOHROtWLFR6XSHULRU&ORWWHVHWDOLL\3RU RWUD SDUWH D UDt] GHO GHVFXEULPLHQWR GH HVWH DUWH DXULxDFLHQVHVHKDQSODQWHDGRQXHYDVLGHDVVREUHOD HYROXFLyQ GH ORV WHPDV UHSUHVHQWDGRV D OR ODUJR GHO WLHPSRGDGRTXHODDEXQGDQFLDGHFLHUWRVDQLPDOHV SHOLJURVRVIHOLQRVRVRVQRHVPX\IUHFXHQWHHQIDVHV PiVUHFLHQWHVGHO3DOHROtWLFR6XSHULRU&ORWWHV <HQ~OWLPRWpUPLQRSDUDHVWRVDXWRUHVODFXHYDGH &KDXYHW LOXVWUD ORVOtPLWHVGHQXHVWURFRQRFLPLHQWR VREUH OD HYROXFLyQ IRUPDO \ OD FURQRORJtD GHO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR&ORWWHVHWDOLL\
9HUIHFKDVFRPSOHWDVHQ&ORWWHVHWDOLL
6LQ HPEDUJR OD REWHQFLyQ GH IHFKDV HQ FRQMXQWRV UXSHVWUHV GH OD UHJLyQ FDQWiEULFD 0RXUH HWDOLLKDVXJHULGRRWUDVDSUHFLDFLRQHVTXHYDQ HQFDPLQDGDV D PDWL]DU HO HVTXHPD HVWLOtVWLFR SUR SXHVWR SRU /HURL*RXUKDQ \ VXV FRQWLQXDGRUHV PiV TXHDLQYDOLGDUOHSRUFRPSOHWR
((//&&2211&&((337722''((((6677,,//22<<//$$ (
(;;33//,,&&$$&&,,ÐÐ11''((//$$99$$55,,$$%%,,//,,''$$'' (
(6677,,//ÌÌ6677,,&&$$
/DLGHDGHHVWLORKDHVWDGRSUHVHQWHGHPD QHUDFRQVWDQWHHQHOHVWXGLRGHODUWHSDULHWDO\ORKD KHFKREDMRGLIHUHQWHVHQIRTXHV\SUHVXSXHVWRV 8QRGHORVSULPHURVSUREOHPDVDORVTXHQRV HQIUHQWDPRVFXDQGRDERUGDPRVHVWDFXHVWLyQHVHOGH ODQDWXUDOH]DVXEMHWLYDGHFXDOTXLHUDSUHFLDFLyQHVWL OtVWLFD5RVHQIHOG\6PLWKKDQVHxD ODGRFyPRHOFRQFHSWRGHHVWLORVHYHHQYXHOWRHQXQD GLVFXVLyQHQODTXHVHEDUDMDQDSUHFLDFLRQHVGLIHUHQ WHV \ D PHQXGR FRQWUDGLFWRULDV %HGQDULN KDFULWLFDGRODGDWDFLyQGHODUWHUXSHVWUHDSDUWLU GH PpWRGRV HVWLOtVWLFRV VXEUD\DQGR OD VXEMHWLYLGDG \ DFLHQWLILFLGDG GHO SURFHGLPLHQWR 3DUD %HGQDULN ORV HVWLORVVRQFDWHJRUtDVJUDWXLWDVTXHORVSUHKLVWRULDGR UHV KDQ FRQVWUXLGR HQ VX SURFHVR GH LQYHVWLJDFLyQ SHUR QXQFD HO UHIOHMR REMHWLYR GH ODV HYLGHQFLDV DU TXHROyJLFDV (O HVWLOR VHUi SRU WDQWR XQ FRQFHSWR TXHVHHVFDSDDXQDGHILQLFLyQFLHQWtILFDGHULYDGRGH DSUHFLDFLRQHV LQWXLWLYDV DMHQDV D FXDOTXLHU SURFHGL PLHQWRGHFXDQWLILFDFLyQ\YHULILFDFLyQ3RUHOFRQWUD ULR5RVHQIHOG\6PLWKVXSRQHQTXHHO DQiOLVLVHVWLOtVWLFRSXHGHKDFHUVHGHXQDPDQHUDULJX URVD OLJDGR DO HVWXGLR GH OD YDULDELOLGDG \ KRPRJH QHLGDGGHODIRUPDDUWtVWLFDHQXQSHULRGRFRQFUHWR $GHPiVVXEUD\DTXHODWHRUL]DFLyQHQHVWHWHUUHQRVH HQFXHQWUD FRQ GRV SUREOHPDV HVHQFLDOHV 3RU XQD SDUWH OD LPSRVLELOLGDG GH ILMDU XQD FODVLILFDFLyQ FH UUDGD \DEVROXWD\SRURWUDODQDWXUDOH]DKLVWyULFD GHO SUREOHPD QRV DGYLHUWH GH TXH FDGD WUDGLFLyQ DUWtVWLFDWLHQHXQGHVDUUROORSDUWLFXODUORTXHUHGXFH ODV SRVLELOLGDGHV GH FRPSDUDFLyQ GHO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR FRQHOGHRWUDVVRFLHGDGHV$OLJXDOTXH5RVHQIHOG\ 6PLWK HQWHQGHPRV TXH HO DQiOLVLV HVWLOtVWLFR GHO DUWH SDULHWDO SXHGH UHDOL]DUVH GH PDQHUD ULJXURVD \ VL ELHQ HV FLHUWR TXH FDGD WUDGLFLyQ DUWtVWLFD VLJXH VX HYROXFLyQ SURSLD WDPELpQ FRQVLGHUDPRV TXH WRGR DUWH SUHVHQWD XQDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV IRUPDOHV TXH SXH GHQVHUGHILQLGDVGHXQDPDQHUDUHODWLYDPHQWHREMH WLYDDWHQGLHQGRDODPDQHUDGHFRQFHELUODIRUPDHO HVSDFLRODOX]HOFRORU\DORVSURFHGLPLHQWRVWpFQL FRV TXH VH HPSOHDQ SDUD REWHQHU HVWRV UHVXOWDGRV VLHQGR HO FRQMXQWR LQWHJUDGR \ DUWLFXODGR GH HVWRV HOHPHQWRVORTXHQRVSHUPLWHGLVWLQJXLUFRQFHSFLRQHV IRUPDOHV VLQJXODUHV VXVFHSWLEOHV GH VHU FRPSDUDGDV FRQRWUDV
UHQFLDVFRLQFLGHQHQUHIHULUVHDORPLVPRHVGHFLUDO FRQMXQWR GH FDUDFWHUHV FRPXQHV HQ ODV REUDV GH ORV DUWLVWDV GH XQD pSRFD 'HOOXF \ 'HOOXF /D GLVFXVLyQ VH KD FHQWUDGR VREUHWRGRHQGRVFDPSRV 3RU XQD SDUWH HQ HO Q~PHUR GH HVWLORV TXH VH KDQ GLIHUHQFLDGR\HQORVFRQWHQLGRVTXHORVFRPSRQHQ\ HQVHJXQGROXJDUHQHOYDORUTXHVHKDRWRUJDGRD HVWDV GLYHUVDV IRUPDV GH KDFHU HV GHFLU OD UHDOLGDG KLVWyULFDTXHVHKDTXHULGRYHUGHWUiVGHHOODV1RV FHQWUDUHPRVDTXtHQHVWHVHJXQGRDVSHFWR\DTXHHV HOTXHPD\RUFRQWURYHUVLDKDJHQHUDGRHQODLQYHVWL JDFLyQDFWXDO
6LPSOLILFDQGR PXFKR OD FXHVWLyQ SRGHPRV GLIHUHQFLDU FXDWUR JUDQGHV OtQHDV GH LQWHUSUHWDFLyQ HQHODQiOLVLVGHODYDULDELOLGDG\HOFDPELRHVWLOtVWLFR
(QSULPHUOXJDUQRVHQFRQWUDPRVFRQDTXH OORVDXWRUHVTXHKDQHQWHQGLGRODYDULDELOLGDGIRUPDO GHODUWHUXSHVWUHHQWpUPLQRVHVHQFLDOPHQWHFURQROy JLFRV3DUDHVWRVDXWRUHVORVHVWLORVVHUiQHOUHIOHMRGH ODV FRQYHQFLRQHV GH UHSUHVHQWDFLyQ GH XQD pSRFD FRQFUHWD\HQFRQVRQDQFLDFRQHVWRHOFDPELRIRU PDO VH SUHVHQWD FRPR HOUHVXOWDGRGHXQDHYROXFLyQ SURJUHVLYD \ OLQHDO D OR ODUJR GHO WLHPSR 'H HVWD PDQHUDFDGDpSRFDSUHVHQWDUiXQDVFRQYHQFLRQHVGH UHSUHVHQWDFLyQ\XQHVWLORSURSLR7DQWR%UHXLOFRPR /HURL*RXUKDQPDQWXYLHURQHVWHSODQWHDPLHQWR
/D LGHD TXH %UHXLO VRVWLHQH GHO HVWLOR HVWi PX\YLQFXODGDDODGHWpFQLFDDVtEXHQDSDUWHGHODV FDWHJRUtDVHVWLOtVWLFDVTXHHVWHDXWRUPDQHMDVHGLVSR QHQHQIXQFLyQGHODWpFQLFDHPSOHDGDSRUORVDUWLVWDV YHUILJ\OLJDGRDHVWRHOFDPELRHVWLOtVWLFRVHUi HQWHQGLGRFDVLFRPRVLQyQLPRGHFDPELRWpFQLFR6X DQiOLVLV GH OD IRUPD HV EDVWDQWH DVLVWHPiWLFR \ VH FHQWUDVREUHWRGRHQODGHVFULSFLyQGHGHWDOOHVPiV TXH HQ OD GLVWLQFLyQ GH UDVJRV HVWUXFWXUDOHV FRQ OD ~QLFDH[FHSFLyQTXL]iVGHVXHVWXGLRGHODSHUVSHF WLYD6XLGHDGHOFDPELRIRUPDOVHIXQGDPHQWDHQOD SURJUHVLYDFRPSOLFDFLyQGHODVWpFQLFDV\HQXQUHD OLVPR TXH VH DILDQ]DED GH PDQHUD SURJUHVLYD D OR ODUJRGHOWLHPSR(VWROHOOHYDHQXQSULQFLSLRFRPR ELHQ VHxDOD *URHQHQ D FRQFHELU XQD HYROXFLyQ OLQHDO GHO DUWHTXHVHGHVDUUROODDORODUJR GHO3DOHROtWLFR6XSHULRU\TXHVHVXEGLYLGHHQFXDWUR HWDSDV %UHXLO SDUD SDVDU SRVWHULRUPHQWH D SURSRQHU XQ PRGHOR GH HYROXFLyQ HQ GRV FLFORV DXULxDFRSHULJRUGLHQVH \ VRO~WUHRPDJGDOHQLHQVH %UHXLO
3RU VX SDUWH /HURL*RXUKDQ PDQWLHQH DO LJXDOTXH%UHXLOHOYDORUFURQROyJLFRGHOHVWLORSHUR ODV LPSOLFDFLRQHV GH VX DQiOLVLV VRQ PX\ GLIHUHQWHV 3UHVWDPXFKDPiVDWHQFLyQDOHVWXGLRVLVWHPiWLFRGH ODIRUPDILMiQGRVHHQDVSHFWRVHVWUXFWXUDOHV\QRVyOR HQ GHWDOOHV FRQFUHWRV /D LQWURGXFFLyQ HQ VX HVWXGLR GH DVSHFWRV FRPR HO DQiOLVLV GH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV OD DQLPDFLyQODSHUVSHFWLYDODFRQVWUXFFLyQGHODILJXUD \ VX HVWUXFWXUDFLyQ LQWHUQD FRQFHGHQ XQD VROLGH] WHyULFDDVXPRGHORTXHKDKHFKRTXHPXFKRVGH ORV FRQFHSWRV TXH pO LQWURGXFH VH VLJDQ DSOLFDQGR VLQ H[FHVLYDV PDWL]DFLRQHV 'HOSRUWH 3RU RWUD SDUWH DxDGHDOYDORUFURQROyJLFRGHOHVWLORXQD SHUVSHFWLYD JHRJUiILFD OR TXH OH SHUPLWH VHxDODU DOJXQDV SDUWLFXODULGDGHV UHJLRQDOHV \ HYROXFLRQHV
ORFDOHVHQHOFRQWH[WRGHVXPRGHORJHQHUDO6LQHP EDUJR HV SUHFLVDPHQWH HVWH PRGHOR JHQHUDO TXH VH IXQGDPHQWDHQODH[LVWHQFLDGHFXDWURHVWLORVVXFHVL YRVHQHOWLHPSR\TXHVHKDLGRPDWL]DQGRSRUVXV FRQWLQXDGRUHVHOTXHHVWiVLHQGRFULWLFDGRFRQGXUH ]D SRU RWURV DXWRUHV DQWH OD DSDULFLyQ GH QXHYDV HYLGHQFLDV \ OD LQWURGXFFLyQ GH QXHYDV YDULDEOHV IXQFLRQDOLGDGDXWRUtD HQHODQiOLVLVGHOHVWLOR
8Q VHJXQGR JUXSR GH LQYHVWLJDGRUHV KD LQWURGXFLGR GHVGH SODQWHDPLHQWRV SUy[LPRV D OD 1XHYD$UTXHRORJtDXQDPDQHUDGLIHUHQWHGHDERU GDUHOSUREOHPDGHOHVWLORHQHOHVWXGLRGHODUWHSDOHR OtWLFR 6X HQIRTXH VH FHQWUD HQ HO FRQFHSWR GH DUWH FRPR FRPXQLFDFLyQ VLHQGR pVWH XQ HOHPHQWR HVHQ FLDOHQODVHVWUDWHJLDVDGDSWDWLYDVGHODVVRFLHGDGHVGH FD]DGRUHVUHFROHFWRUHVDODYH]TXHXQDKHUUDPLHQWD IXQGDPHQWDOSDUDLGHQWLILFDUODVUHGHVGHLQWHUDFFLyQ VRFLDOHQHOSDVDGR (VWDOtQHDLQWHUSUHWDWLYDHVPDQWHQLGDSULQ FLSDOPHQWHSRUDXWRUHVDQJORVDMRQHV&RQNH\*DP EOH8FNR6WUDXVSDUD ORVFXDOHVHOHVWLORDGTXLH UH XQD GLPHQVLyQ GREOH 3RU XQD SDUWH HV XQD KHUUDPLHQWD GH DQiOLVLV TXH SXHGH VHU XVDGD SDUD ORFDOL]DU HQ HO HVSDFLR GLVWLQWDV XQLGDGHV VRFLDOHV \ FHUWLILFDU FDPELRV HQ ODV PLVPDV DGTXLULHQGR XQD GLPHQVLyQ PDWHULDO TXH TXHGD UHIOHMDGD HQ ODV HYL GHQFLDV DUTXHROyJLFDV 3RU RWUD SDUWH VH VXEUD\D VX YDORU FRPXQLFDWLYR HQ HVWH VHQWLGR HO HVWLOR SDVD D IRUPDUSDUWHGHORVVLJQLILFDGRVDWUDYpVGHORVFXDOHV XQGHWHUPLQDGRJUXSRKXPDQRSHUFLEH\RUJDQL]DOD UHDOLGDG VH FRQFLEH SRU WDQWR PiV TXHFRPRXQD YDULDFLyQ IRUPDO FRPR XQ FDPELR HQ OD FRPXQLFD FLyQ KDFLHQGR UHIHUHQFLD D ODV VROXFLRQHV LGHDV \ SHUFHSFLRQHVTXHHVWiQGHWUiVGHODVLPSOHUHSUHVHQ WDFLyQ JUiILFD (VWH SODQWHDPLHQWR FHUWLILFD TXH OD LGHDGHHVWLORKDGHVHUPiVFRPSOHMD\PHQRVPRQR OtWLFDGHORTXHFRQIUHFXHQFLDVHKDDUJXPHQWDGR\ UHFRQRFH GLVWLQWRV JUDGRV GH FRQWH[WXDOL]DFLyQ HQ OD YDULDELOLGDGIRUPDO\FRPXQLFDWLYDTXHYDQGHVGHHO iPELWR LQGLYLGXDO \ GRPpVWLFR DO UHJLRQDO &RQNH\
UHVSHFWD DO HVWXGLR GHO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR HXURSHR HVWH WLSRGHSODQWHDPLHQWRVVHOOHYDQDSOLFDQGRGHVGHORV DxRVRFKHQWDELHQHQHOFRQWH[WRGHHQWRUQRVUHJLR QDOHV UHVWULQJLGRV &RQNH\ 0RXUH R ELHQDXQQLYHOPiVJHQHUDO*DPEOH\ (Q FXDOTXLHU FDVR WRGRV HVWRV DXWRUHV GHVWDFDQ HO SDSHOTXHWLHQHHODUWHFRPRWUDQVPLVRUGHLQIRUPD FLyQ\HOHPHQWRDFWLYRHQODLQWHUDFFLyQVRFLDOFRQ YLUWLpQGRVH OD YDULDELOLGDG HVWLOtVWLFD HQ HO UHIOHMR GH FRPSOHMRVIHQyPHQRVFXOWXUDOHVHQORVTXHODFURQR ORJtDHVWDQVyORXQDYDULDEOHGHODVPXFKDVTXHLQ WHUYLHQHQ
2WUDOtQHDUHFLHQWHGHLQWHUSUHWDFLyQ\TXH HVWi HQ UHODFLyQ FRQ OD DQWHULRU SRU LQVSLUDUVH WDP ELpQHQXQPRGHORHWQRJUiILFRHVDTXHOODTXHLQWHQWD YLQFXODUODQDWXUDOH]DGHODIRUPDDUWtVWLFDSDOHROtWLFD FRQ ULWXDOHV FKDPiQLFRV /HZLV :LOOLDQV \'RZVRQ 1RQRVGHWHQGUHPRVHQH[SOLFDUORVSRUPHQR UHVGHHVWHSODQWHDPLHQWRWDQVyORDSXQWDUTXHEDMR HOVXSXHVWRGHTXHHOVLVWHPDQHUYLRVRGHORVSDOHROtWL FRV IXHVH LGpQWLFR DO QXHVWUR HVWH HQIRTXH SUHWHQGH UHODFLRQDU ORV WHPDV GHO DUWH SDULHWDO \ VXV IRUPDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH UHSUHVHQWDFLyQ FRQ ODV GLVWLQWDV IDVHVGHOWUDQFHTXHDWUDYpVGHOFRQVXPRGHSVLFRDF WLYRVVXIUHHOFKDPiQ(VWRVDXWRUHVGLVWLQJXHQVHLV FDWHJRUtDV GH PRWLYRV HQWySWLFRV IRUPDV PHQWDOHV JHRPpWULFDVTXHDSDUHFHQHQHOWUDQVFXUVRGHODDOX FLQDFLyQ \ WUHV HVWDGRV GH SURGXFFLyQ GH LPiJHQHV PHQWDOHV VXFHVLYDV R DOWHUQDV VHJ~Q ORV FDVRV /DV FUtWLFDVGLULJLGDVDHVWHHQIRTXHVHDVLHQWDQHQHOHVFD VR JUDGR GH YHULILFDFLyQ DUTXHROyJLFD TXH SUHVHQWD +DPD\RQ%DKQ&ORWWHV\/HZLV:L OOLDQV D SHVDU GH OD DFHSWDFLyQ GH OD SRVLEOH H[LVWHQFLD GHO FKDPDQLVPR HQ OD 3UHKLVWRULD&ORWWHV \ /HZLV :LOOLDQV SUREOHPD TXH FRPR KD VHxDODGR UHFLHQWHPHQWH /RUEODQFKHW \D SODQWHy/HURL*RXUKDQ%DMRQXHVWURSXQWRGHYLVWD FUHHPRVTXHXQSODQWHDPLHQWRGHHVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV VHPXHVWUDLQFDSD]DODKRUDGHH[SOLFDUOD YDULDELOL GDG HVWLOtVWLFD GHO DUWH SDULHWDO HXURSHR DO LJXDO TXH WDPELpQ OR HV SDUD DERUGDU PXFKRV RWURV DVSHFWRV WDOHV FRPR OD HVWUXFWXUDFLyQ WHPiWLFD R OD RUJDQL]D FLyQFURQROyJLFD
8QD ~OWLPD DSUR[LPDFLyQ D HVWH SUREOHPD QRVODRIUHFH-0$SHOOiQL] DSDUWLUGHORVHVWXGLRVGH DXWRUtD HQ HO DUWH UXSHVWUH/DFRQFHSFLyQTXH$SH OOiQL]PDQWLHQHGHOHVWLORYLHQHFDUDFWHUL]DGDSRUXQ SULQFLSLRGHGXDOLGDGLQVSLUDGRHQODREUDGHOIRUPD OLVWD :|OILQ LQWHQWD WUDVODGDU ORV FRQFHSWRV GH µOR OLQHDOµ \ ´OR SLFWyULFRµ TXH GHILQLy HVWH DXWRU DOH PiQ DO DQiOLVLV HVWLOtVWLFR GHO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR ´/R OLQHDOµ YHQGUtD FDUDFWHUL]DGR VREUH WRGR SRU HO SUHGRPLQLR GH ORV FRQWRUQRV HO GHVDUUROOR GH XQD SHUVSHFWLYD SODQD \ XQ GLEXMR WHQGHQWH D OR VXPDUL ]DGRU \ HVTXHPDWL]DQWH PLHQWUDV TXH´ORSLFWyULFRµ HVWDUiFDUDFWHUL]DGRSRUHOSUHGRPLQLRGHOPRGHODGR XQDSHUVSHFWLYDTXHEXVFDFUHDUHOHIHFWRGHSURIXQ GLGDG\XQGLEXMRWHQGHQWHDOUHDOLVPR6XSRQHTXH HVWDV GRV WHQGHQFLDV GHO HVWLOR HVWiQ SUHVHQWHV HQ HO DUWHSDOHROtWLFRGHPDQHUDFRHWiQHDVLELHQVHSXHGH REVHUYDU HO SUHGRPLQLR GH XQD X RWUD $SHOOiQL]
(Q RWUR RUGHQ GH FRVDV $SHOOiQL] HQWLHQGH TXH HQ HO GLVHxR GH OD ILJXUD SDOHROtWLFD H[LVWHQ H[L JHQFLDVGHOHVWLORSHURTXHVLQHPEDUJRFDEHQOLEHU WDGHVLQGLYLGXDOHVFX\RUHFRQRFLPLHQWRHVIXQGDPHQ WDOSDUDHODQiOLVLVGHDXWRUtD'HHVWDPDQHUDVXSRQH TXHODIRUPDSDOHROtWLFDUHVSRQGHDXQPRGHORJHQp ULFRSHURFX\DH[SUHVLyQVHDEDQGRQDDODLQLFLDWLYD LQGLYLGXDO GHO DUWLVWD $SHOOiQL] (Q HVWH VHQWLGRSLHQVDTXHHOUHFRQRFLPLHQWRGHODDXWRUtDHV OD FODYH IXQGDPHQWDO SDUD SRGHU DJUXSDU ODV REUDV SRUHVFXHODVSRUTXHVLQODLGHQWLILFDFLyQGHORVDXWR UHV OD DJUXSDFLyQ GH ODV ILJXUDV WDQWR FURQROyJLFD PHQWHFRPRJHRJUiILFDPHQWHVHUtDLPSRVLEOH\SRU WDQWR VHUtD WDPELpQ PX\ GLItFLO PDQWHQHU OD LGHD GH TXH H[LVWHQ HVWLORV GLIHUHQWHV HQ HO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR $SHOOiQL](VWHDXWRUHQWLHQGHSRUHVFXHOD XQ FRQMXQWR GH LQGLYLGXRV ORFDOL]DGRV HQ XQD GHWHU PLQDGD]RQDTXHSURGXFHQXQD YDULDFLyQLGHQWLILFD EOHGHODUWHRGHOHVWLORPD\RU3RUWDQWRSDUD$SH OOiQL] OD LQWHUSUHWDFLyQ SDUWLFXODU TXH XQ DXWRU R FRQMXQWRGHDXWRUHVUHODFLRQDGRVKDFHGHXQPRGHOR JHQpULFRGHUHSUHVHQWDFLyQHVHOSULQFLSDOHOHPHQWRD WHQHUHQFXHQWDDODKRUDGHDQDOL]DUODYDULDELOLGDG HVWLOtVWLFDHQHODUWHUXSHVWUH
((6677,,//22<<((66775588&&778855$$''((//$$))225500$$ (
(664488((00$$77,,660022<<55(($$//,,660022
(QHOSUHVHQWHDSDUWDGRLQWHQWDUHPRVSUHFL VDU DOJXQRV FRQFHSWRV WHyULFRV TXH QRV SHUPLWDQ DSUR[LPDUQRVFRQXQPD\RUJUDGRGHREMHWLYLGDGDO SUREOHPDGHODHVWUXFWXUDGHODIRUPDHQHODUWHSD OHROtWLFR
&RPR LQGLFD 0 /RUEODQFKHW D OR ODUJR GH OD KLVWRULD GH OD LQYHVWLJDFLyQ ODV IRUPDV SDOHROtWLFDVVHKDQFDUDFWHUL]DGRGHGLIHUHQWHPDQHUD YHDPRVFXiOHVKDQVLGRODVDSRUWDFLRQHVPiVVLJQLIL FDWLYDVHQHVWHVHQWLGR
+%UHXLOGLVWLQJXHGRVFDWHJRUtDVDUWtVWLFDV SDUDOHODV H LQGHSHQGLHQWHV 3RU XQD SDUWH WHQHPRV ODV UHSUHVHQWDFLRQHV UHDOLVWDV GH DQLPDOHV\DQWURSR PRUIRV\SRURWUDODVUHSUHVHQWDFLRQHVHVTXHPiWLFDV GHREMHWRV WDOHVFRPRFODYLIRUPHVSHFWLIRUPHVWHFWL IRUPHV %UHXLO (Q RWUR RUGHQ GH FRVDV HQWLHQGHTXHGLIHUHQWHVJUDGRVGHUHDOLVPRVHIXHURQ VXFHGLHQGR D OR ODUJR GHO 3DOHROtWLFR 6XSHULRU XWLOL ]DQGRHVWHDUJXPHQWRFRPRLQGLFDGRUFURQROyJLFR
YLVLyQ GH SHUILO \ HQVHJXQGROXJDUVHVHOHFFLRQDQ ORV GHWDOOHV PiV VLJQLILFDWLYRV 4XL]iV FRPR DILUPD /RUEODQFKHW HV HO pQIDVLV HQ HVWH SURFHVR VHOHFWLYRORPiVLQWHUHVDQWHTXHVHGHVSUHQGHGHORV SODQWHDPLHQWRV GH * /XTXHW SXHVWR TXH SDUHFH FDUDFWHUL]DU GH PDQHUD FRQVWDQWH OD FRQFHSFLyQ SDOHROtWLFDGHODIRUPD
/DPLQJ(PSHUDLUH VRVWLHQH OD H[LV WHQFLDGHXQDUWHFXDWHUQDULRHVHQFLDOPHQWHUHDOLVWD DO PHQRV SRU OR TXH UHVSHFWD D ODV UHSUHVHQWDFLRQHV DQLPDOtVWLFDV DXQTXH VHxDOD DOJXQDV H[FHSFLRQHV (VWRQRTXLHUHGHFLUTXHLJQRUHODVIRUPDVHVTXHPi WLFDV\ORVVLJQRVVLQRTXHORVHQWLHQGHFRPRXQIH QyPHQR PDUJLQDO \ GH PX\ GLItFLO LQWHUSUHWDFLyQ $GHPiV HQIDWL]D HO VLJQLILFDGR FURQROyJLFR GH ORV GLIHUHQWHVJUDGRVGHUHDOLVPR
/HURL*RXUKDQ DSRUWDUi DOJXQDV LGHDV QXHYDV VREUH HVWH WHPD 3RQH HO DFHQWR HQ HO FDUiFWHUVLPEyOLFRGHODUWHSDULHWDODVtODVILJXUDFLR QHVSDOHROtWLFDVSDVDQDVHUVtPERORV\QRHOUHIOHMRGH PRGHORV QDWXUDOHV 3DUWLHQGR GH HVWH SODQWHDPLHQWR JHQpULFR VXEUD\D HO FDUiFWHU HVTXHPiWLFR GH ODV UHSUHVHQWDFLRQHVDQWURSRPRUIDV\ODOHQWDHYROXFLyQ TXH H[SHULPHQWDURQ ODV ILJXUDFLRQHV DQLPDOHV KDFLD SDWURQHV UHDOLVWDV TXH VyOR VHUiQ DOFDQ]DGRV HQ ODV ~OWLPDV IDVHV GHO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR HVWLOR ,9 3DUD HVWDEOHFHUHVWDVHFXHQFLDGHFDPELRVDQDOL]DXQDVHULH GHDVSHFWRVTXHDIHFWDQDOFRQMXQWRGHODILJXUDWDOHV FRPR OD HVWUXFWXUDFLyQ IRUPDO OD YHUDFLGDG GH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV OD PD\RU R PHQRU SUHVHQFLD GH GHWD OOHV HO PRYLPLHQWR R OD UHVROXFLyQ FRUUHFWD GH OD SHUVSHFWLYD 3RU OR TXH UHVSHFWD D ORV VLJQRV DUJX PHQWDHQHOVHQWLGRFRQWUDULRVXSRQLHQGRODH[LVWHQ FLDHQXQSULQFLSLRGHPRWLYRVUHDOLVWDVTXHGHIRU PDSURJUHVLYDVHIXHURQHVTXHPDWL]DQGRKDVWDOOHJDU DODDEVWUDFFLyQ(OSODQWHDUXQPRGHORGHHYROXFLyQ IRUPDORSXHVWRSDUDODVUHSUHVHQWDFLRQHVILJXUDWLYDV \ORVVLJQRVQRGHMDGHPRVWUDUXQDFLHUWDFRQWUDGLF FLyQ LQWHUQD HQ VXV SURSXHVWDV TXH VLQ GXGD YLHQH JHQHUDGDSRUODLQWHUSUHWDFLyQXQWDQWRDSULRUtVWLFD TXHKL]RGHORVVLJQRVFRQVLGHUiQGRORVHVTXHPDWL]D FLRQHV GH ORV yUJDQRV VH[XDOHV PDVFXOLQRV \ IHPHQL QRV
8FNR\5RVHQIHOGLQWHQWDQGRKXLUGH VLPSOLILFDFLRQHVH[FHVLYDVVHxDODQODHQRUPHYDULDEL OLGDG GH HVWLORV \ WpFQLFDV TXH DGRSWDURQ ORV DUWLVWDV SDOHROtWLFRVHQVXODERUEDMRODFRQYLYHQFLDGHSODQ WHDPLHQWRV UHDOLVWDV HVTXHPiWLFRV \ DEVWUDFWRV 6L ELHQHVWRVDXWRUHVPDQWLHQHQODLGHDGHTXHHQ~OWL PR WpUPLQR HO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR SUHVHQWDED XQD WHQ GHQFLDJHQHUDOKDFLDODHVTXHPDWL]DFLyQ
3RU VX SDUWH -0 $SHOOiQL] IXQGDPHQWD FRPR \DKHPRVVHxDODGRDQWHULRUPHQWHHODQiOLVLVGH OD IRUPD ILJXUDWLYD SDOHROtWLFD HQ XQ SULQFLSLR GH GXDOLGDGTXHWRPDGHODREUDGHOIRUPDOLVWDDOHPiQ :|OILQ$Vt$SHOOiQL]VXSRQHTXHHQHODUWHSDOHROt WLFR ´OR SLFWyULFRµ TXH HVWDUtD OLJDGR D OD FRQFHS FLyQUHDOLVWDGHODIRUPD\´OROLQHDOµTXHDOXGLUtDD XQD WHQGHQFLD HVTXHPDWL]DQWH VH FRPELQDURQ HQ GLIHUHQWH JUDGR FRQ HO SUHGRPLQLR GH XQD X RWUD WHQGHQFLD$XQTXHSDUDHVWHDXWRUODLPDJHQTXHHO SDOHROtWLFRWLHQHHQODPHQWHUHIOHMDHQ~OWLPRWpUPL
QRXQDWHQGHQFLDJHQHUDODODHVTXHPDWL]DFLyQGHO QDWXUDOPiVTXHDOUHIOHMRUHDOLVWDGHpVWH(OSDOHROtWL FRGLVHxDHQVXRSLQLyQXQDILJXUDSODQD\IORWDQWH GHOLPLWDGD SRU FRQWRUQRV FODUDPHQWH HVTXHPDWL]DQ WHV$SHOOiQL]
'HVGH HVWH SXQWR GH YLVWD VRVWLHQH HO XVR FRPELQDGR GH ORV WLSRV GH SHUVSHFWLYD FRUUHFWD R WRUFLGD \GHPRGHODGRPiVRPHQRVQDWXUDOLVWD OR TXHLPSOLFDVHJ~QpOTXHODDSUR[LPDFLyQDOREMHWR UHDO QR HV XQ HOHPHQWR QHFHVDULR GH OD UHSUHVHQWD FLyQVLQRFDVXDO(QUHODFLyQFRQORDQWHULRUSODQWHD XQ XVR DOHDWRULR GHO JUDGR GH HVTXHPDWL]DFLyQ DSOL FDGRHQHODUWHUXSHVWUHVLpQGRORpVWHGREOHPHQWH\D TXHQRVyORVHSXHGHDSOLFDUDODILJXUDTXHVHGHVHD VLQR WDPELpQ D FDGD XQD GH VXV SDUWHV HQ GLVWLQWD SURSRUFLyQ
6LQHQWUDUHQH[FHVLYRVGHWDOOHVHVWHPRGHOR LQWHUSUHWDWLYRQRVVXJLHUHGRVDVSHFWRVFULWLFDEOHV3RU XQD SDUWH QRV HQFRQWUDPRV FRQ XQ SUREOHPD GH HVFDOD WHPSRUDO SXHVWR TXH OD FRQVLGHUDFLyQ GH OD IRUPDSDOHROtWLFDFRPRHVHQFLDOPHQWHHVTXHPiWLFDVH KDFHDEDUFDQGRHODUWHUXSHVWUHHQVXFRQMXQWRDSOL FDQGR XQ SULQFLSLR GH VLQFURQtD TXH UHVXOWD ~WLO VL WUDWDPRV GH HVWDEOHFHU VXV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV JHQHUDOHV UHVSHFWR DO DUWH GH RWURV SHULRGRV KLVWyULFRV SHUR FRPSOHWDPHQWHLQ~WLOVLORTXHLQWHQWDPRVHV HVWDEOH FHUGLIHUHQFLDVLQWHUQDVHQHOFRQMXQWRGHOPLVPR1R FUHHPRVSRUWDQWRTXHHOXVRGHXQPD\RURPHQRU JUDGR GH HVTXHPDWLVPRUHDOLVPR VH GLVWULEX\D GH PDQHUD DOHDWRULD HQ HO ODUJR WLHPSR \ HQ HO YDVWR HVSDFLR JHRJUiILFR TXH DEDUFD HO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR HX URSHR 3RURWUDSDUWH$SHOOiQL]GHILQHODIRUPDSD OHROtWLFDGHXQDPDQHUDFRQIXVDDOVHxDODUODH[LVWHQ FLDFRPELQDGDGHUHVROXFLRQHVUHDOLVWDV\HVTXHPiWL FDV HQ XQD PLVPD ILJXUD 6LQ HPEDUJR QRVRWURV FUHHPRVTXHVHSXHGHDSOLFDUXQRXRWURFDOLILFDWLYR HQ IXQFLyQ GH TXH HO FRQMXQWR GH OD LPDJHQ \ QR SDUWHVDLVODGDVVHDSUR[LPHHQPD\RURPHQRUJUDGR DOQDWXUDO
9HPRVSRUWDQWRTXHHOSUREOHPDGHOWUiQ VLWRGHXQDFRQFHSFLyQPiVRPHQRVHVTXHPiWLFDGH ODIRUPDDRWUDTXHSRGUtDPRVFRQVLGHUDUUHDOLVWD KD HVWDGR VLHPSUH SUHVHQWH D OD KRUD GH YDORUDU ORV FDPELRVHVWLOtVWLFRVTXHVHVXSRQHWXYLHURQOXJDUHQHO VHQRGHODUWHSDULHWDO
$VtXQRGHORVSULQFLSDOHVSUREOHPDVFRQHO TXH QRV HQFRQWUDPRV HV OD DPELJHGDG FRQ OD TXH HPSOHDPRVHVWRVWpUPLQRV3DUDDFODUDUHVWDFXHVWLyQ KDUHPRV UHIHUHQFLD D GRV FRQFHSWRV WRPDGRV GH OD 3VLFRORJtD GHO $UWH HQ FRQFUHWR GH OD HVFXHOD GH OD *HVWDOWTXHSRUVXSUHFLVLyQQRVSDUHFHQPX\DGH FXDGRVQRVUHIHULPRVDODQRFLyQGHFRQFHSWRUHSUH VHQWDFLRQDO\DODOODPDGDOH\GHGLIHUHQFLDFLyQ$U QKHLP(ODUWLVWDDODKRUDGHUHSUHVHQWDUODV FXDOLGDGHV GH XQ REMHWR WLHQH TXH LQYHQWDU XQ HTXLYDOHQWHUHSUHVHQWDFLRQDOGHORVUDVJRVHVWUXFWXUD
(VWD HVFXHOD KD UHDOL]DGR JUDQGHV DSRUWDFLRQHV D OD KRUD GH
OHV GHO PRGHOR FRQ ORV UHFXUVRV GH XQ GHWHUPLQDGR PHGLR SLQWXUDHVFXOWXUDDHVWRVHTXLYDOHQWHVOHV GHQRPLQDPRV FRQFHSWRV GH UHSUHVHQWDFLyQ (VWRV FRQFHSWRV VRQ ORVHOHPHQWRVQHFHVDULRVTXHQRVSHU PLWHQ PDQHMDU IRUPDV \ UHODFLRQHV HQWUH pOODV SX GLHQGR VHU PX\ VHQFLOORV R PiVFRPSOHMRV$UQKHLP
(VDTXtGRQGHWRPDSURWDJRQLVPRHOSULQFL SLR GH OD GLIHUHQFLDFLyQ TXH LPSOLFD GRV FXHVWLRQHV (QSULPHUOXJDUHQUHODFLyQFRQODSUHPLVD´JHVWiOWL FDµ GH TXH HO SHUFLELU SURFHGH GH OR JHQHUDO D OR FRQFUHWRKDEUiTXHGHFLUTXHWRGDIRUPDTXHGDWDQ LQGLIHUHQFLDGDFRPRORSHUPLWDODFRQFHSFLyQTXHHO DUWLVWD VH KDFH GHO REMHWR SUHWHQGLGR (Q VHJXQGR OXJDU LQGLFD TXH PLHQWUDV XQ UDVJR YLVXDO QR HVWH GLIHUHQFLDGRODJDPDWRWDOGHVXVSRVLELOLGDGHVHVWDUi UHSUHVHQWDGDSRUHOPiVVLPSOHGHHVWRV3RUHMHPSOR VH KD REVHUYDGR FyPR HO FtUFXOR HQ PXFKDV DUWHV LQIDQWLOHV DO VHU OD PiV VLPSOH GH WRGDV ODV IRUPDV SRVLEOHVKDFHODVYHFHVGHWRGDVHOODVKDVWDTXHRWUDV IRUPDV VH GLIHUHQFLDQ ILJ $UQKHLP
(V SUHFLVDPHQWH HVWH SULQFLSLR GH GLIHUHQ FLDFLyQHOTXHH[SOLFDTXHXQREMHWRSXHGDVHUUHSUH VHQWDGRDSDUWLUGHHVTXHPDVVLPSOHVRFRPSOHMRV'H WDOPDQHUDFXDQGRKDELWXDOPHQWHKDEODPRVGHXQD LPDJHQ HVTXHPiWLFD QRV HVWDPRV UHILULHQGR D XQD LPDJHQ SRFR GLIHUHQFLDGD PLHQWUDV TXH FXDQGR KDEODPRV GH XQD LPDJHQ UHDOLVWD QRV HVWDPRV UHIL ULHQGRDXQDHVWUXFWXUDFLyQGHODIRUPDPiVGLIHUHQ FLDGD DXQTXH GHVGH XQ SXQWR GH YLVWD SHUFHSWXDO XQD\RWUDQRGHMDQGHVHUXQHVTXHPD
6yORHQHVWHVHQWLGRVHSXHGHPDQWHQHUXQD LGHDSUHFLVDGHORVFRQFHSWRVGHUHDOLVPR\HVTXHPD WLVPR6LHQGRODDSUR[LPDFLyQUHDOLVWDXQPRGHORHQ HO FXDO ORV FRQFHSWRV GH UHSUHVHQWDFLyQ FUHFHQ HQ Q~PHUR \ FRPSOHMLGDG FRQVLJXLHQGRXQPD\RUJUD GRGHVFULSWLYRGHOREMHWR
((99,,''((11&&,,$$66$$554488((22//ÐÐ**,,&&$$66 (
(//&&$$6622''((//$$55((**,,ÐÐ11&&$$1177ÉÉ%%55,,&&$$
8QD YH] GLVFXWLGR HQ OtQHDV JHQHUDOHV HO SUREOHPD WHyULFR GH OD IRUPD HVTXHPiWLFDYHUVXV IRUPD UHDOLVWD LQWHQWDUHPRV YDORUDU VLQWpWLFDPHQWH DOJXQDVOtQHDVGHOFDPELRIRUPDOHQHODUWHSDOHROtWLFR GHODUHJLyQFDQWiEULFDILJ3DUDHOOR QRVFHQWUD UHPRV H[FOXVLYDPHQWH HQ ORV WHPDV ILJXUDWLYRV GH MDQGRGHODGRORVGLVWLQWRVWLSRVGHVLJQRV
+DVWD KDFH PX\ SRFR WLHPSR OD RUJDQL]D FLyQWHPSRUDOGHODUWHUXSHVWUHFDQWiEULFRVHEDVDED HQ HO PRGHOR HVWLOtVWLFR GH /HURL*RXUKDQ GH HVH PRGRVHLEDQVLWXDQGRHQXQRXRWURGHVXVHVWLORVODV GLIHUHQWHV REUDV UXSHVWUHV (Q HVWD PLVPD OtQHD VH VLW~DQWDPELpQDOJXQRVLQWHQWRVGHHVWDEOHFHUVHFXHQ FLDVUHJLRQDOHVFRPRODSURSXHVWDSRU)-RUGi TXLHQ HQ IXQFLyQ GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HVWLOtVWLFDV GLIH UHQFLD WUHV JUDQGHV IDVHV HQ HO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR GH OD UHJLyQFDQWiEULFD
6LQHPEDUJRODFDQWLGDGGHSUREOHPDVTXH URGHDQKR\HQGtDDODLGHDGHOHVWLORFRPRLQGLFDGRU FURQROyJLFRKDFHTXHHVWRVSUHVXSXHVWRVGHRUJDQL]D FLyQWHPSRUDOQRUHVXOWHQDOPHQRVGHVGHXQSXQWR GHYLVWDPHWRGROyJLFRWRGRORREMHWLYRVTXHVHTXLVLH UD
$ SHVDU GH WRGR UHFLHQWHPHQWH VH KDQ LGR VXFHGLHQGR QXHYDV DSRUWDFLRQHV TXH SHUPLWHQ PDQ WHQHU XQ PD\RU JUDGR GH REMHWLYLGDG D OD KRUD GH VLWXDUFURQROyJLFDPHQWHODVREUDVSDULHWDOHVSDOHROt WLFDV(QSULPHUOXJDUODDSOLFDFLyQGHPpWRGRVSUH FLVRVGHH[FDYDFLyQKDSRVLELOLWDGRHQHOFDVRFRQFUH WRGHODEULJRGH/D9LxD0DQ]DQHGD$VWXULDVHVWD EOHFHU XQD UHODFLyQ GH FRUUHVSRQGHQFLD HQWUH ORV GHSyVLWRVGHRFXSDFLyQ\ODUHDOL]DFLyQGHORVJUDED GRV UXSHVWUHV )RUWHD \ (Q VHJXQGR OXJDU OD DSOLFDFLyQ GHO & $06 D OD GDWDFLyQ GH FRQMXQWRV UXSHVWUHV GH OD UHJLyQ FDQWiEULFD KD VXSXHVWRODSRVLELOLGDGGHILMDUFRQSUHFLVLyQODFURQR ORJtD GH DOJXQRV PRWLYRV SDULHWDOHV 0RXUHHW DOLL <SRU~OWLPRODUHFLHQWHDSOLFDFLyQGHOPpWR GR GH OD WHUPROXPLQLVFHQFLD D OD GDWDFLyQ GHO DUWH UXSHVWUH GH OD FXHYD GH 9HQWD /DSHUUD &DUUDQ]D 9L]FD\D QRV KD SHUPLWLGR FRQRFHU OD FURQRORJtD GH VXVJUDEDGRVDVtFRPRHODEULUXQDVSHUVSHFWLYDVGH DSOLFDFLyQ GH HVWH PpWRGR WUHPHQGDPHQWH DOHQWDGR UDV$ULDVHWDOLLE
$ SDUWLU GH HVWDV HYLGHQFLDV LQWHQWDUHPRV KDFHU DOJXQDV SUHFLVLRQHV VREUH OD HYROXFLyQ IRUPDO GHODUWHUXSHVWUHHQHO&DQWiEULFR
3RU OR TXH VH UHILHUH D ORV RUtJHQHV GHO DUWH UXSHVWUH\DVXVIDVHVPiVDQWLJXDVFRQWDPRVFRQOD LQIRUPDFLyQILDEOHGHORVFRQMXQWRVGH9HQWD/DSHUUD &DUUDQ]D9L]FD\DHODEULJRGHOD9LxD0DQ]DQH GD $VWXULDV VLHQGR DOJR PiV GXGRVD OD FRQVLGHUD FLyQ TXH QRV PHUHFH OD &XHYD GHO &RQGH 7XxyQ $VWXULDV
UHDOL]DGRVHQODVSDUHGHVGHODEULJR&RPELQDQGRODV DOWXUDV UHODWLYDV GH OD SDUHG JUDEDGD \ ODV FDSDV DU TXHROyJLFDV DVt FRPR ODV WHyULFDV DOWXUDVGHOFDPSR PDQXDO)RUWHDKDSRGLGRGLIHUHQFLDUGRVIDVHVDUWtV WLFDV VXFHVLYDV HQ HO \DFLPLHQWR 8QD SULPHUD DWUL EXLGD DO $XULxDFLHQVH FRPSXHVWD SRU XQD VHULH GH JUDEDGRVOLQHDOHVSURIXQGRV\YHUWLFDOHVQRILJXUDWL YRV\RWUDGHpSRFD*UDYHWLHQVH\TXL]iVGHO6ROX WUHQVH ,QLFLDO TXH LQFOX\H DOJXQDV ILJXUDFLRQHV FDEDOORVEyYLGRVFLHUYDVWUD]RVLQDFDEDGRV\VLJQRV HQ ´9µ KHFKRV D SDUWLU GH JUDEDGRV VLPSOHV \ SUR IXQGRV/DVILJXUDFLRQHVGHHVWDIDVHHQFDMDUtDQHQORV FiQRQHVGHOHVWLOR,,GH/HURL*RXUKDQ)RUWHD \ SUHVHQWDQGR HQ FXDOTXLHU FDVR XQ WUDWD PLHQWRIRUPDOHVTXHPiWLFRILJXUDWLYRILJ
/DFXHYDGH9HQWD/DSHUUD&DUUDQ]D9L] FD\D FRQWLHQH FLQFR ILJXUDFLRQHV JUDEDGDV FXDWUR ELVRQWHV \ XQ RVR MXQWR FRQ XQ FRQMXQWR GH WUD]RV OLQHDOHV D OD HQWUDGD ILJ /RV JUDEDGRV VRQ GH WUD]RVLPSOH\SURIXQGR&RPR\DKHPRVGLFKRDQWH ULRUPHQWHHVWRVJUDEDGRVKDQVLGRREMHWRGHOSULPHU HQVD\RGHDSOLFDFLyQGHOPpWRGRGHODWHUPROXPLQLV FHQFLDDODGDWDFLyQGHODUWHUXSHVWUHSRUPHGLRGHO FXDO KD VLGR SRVLEOH GHWHUPLQDU OD FURQRORJtD GH ODV FRVWUDV HVWDODJPtWLFDVTXHORVUHFXEUtDQ3DUDHOORVH WRPDURQ GRV PXHVWUDV FRQ ORV VLJXLHQWHV UHVXOWDGRV 0XHVWUD , 0$' r %3 \ 0XHVWUD ,, 0$'r%3/RVDXWRUHVGHHVWH WUDEDMRHVWLPDQTXHODVGDWDFLRQHVGH9HQWD/DSHUUD \ SRU FRQVLJXLHQWH HO WpUPLQRDQWH TXHP SDUD ORV JUDEDGRV HQ QLQJ~Q FDVR VHUiQ DQWHULRUHV DO %3HQODHVFDODGHDxRVGHUDGLRFDUERQRHVWRHVD ILQDOHV GHO *UDYHWLHQVH 3RU WDQWR ORV JUDEDGRV VH VLWXDUtDQHQDOJ~QPRPHQWRGHO3DOHROtWLFR6XSHULRU DQWLJXR$ULDVHWDOLL E8VXDOPHQWHORVJUDED GRVILJXUDWLYRVGHHVWHFRQMXQWRVHDVRFLDEDQDOHVWLOR ,,RLQLFLRVGHOHVWLOR,,,GH/HURL*RXUKDQHLJXDO TXHHQHOFDVRDQWHULRUSUHVHQWDQXQDHVWUXFWXUDFLyQ GH OD IRUPD TXH VLJXH SDWURQHV HVTXHPiWLFR ILJXUDWLYRV
/D&XHYDGHO&RQGH7XxyQ$VWXULDVSUH VHQWDXQGHSyVLWR0XVWHULHQVH\GHLQLFLRVGHO3DOHROt WLFR 6XSHULRU TXH SXGR WDSDU XQD VHULH GH JUDEDGRV OLQHDOHV VLPLODUHV D ORV GH OD 9LxD QR ILJXUDWLYRV $KRUDELHQODLPSUHFLVLyQGHODVREVHUYDFLRQHVUHDOL ]DGDVSRUHO&RQGHGHOD9HJDGHO6HOODHQVXH[FD YDFLyQ GH LPSLGH DVHJXUDU HVWH KHFKR 0iU TXH]8UtD
$HVWRVFRQMXQWRVHVQHFHVDULRDxDGLUHOGH OD)XHQWHGHO6DOtQ9DOGH6DQ9LFHQWH&DQWDEULD (Q HVWD FXHYD VH KD LQLFLDGR XQD H[FDYDFLyQ HQ OD TXHVHKDSRGLGRIHFKDUXQKRJDUHQWRUQRDO %3²*U1r%3(VWHKRJDU VHFRUUHVSRQGHFRQOD~OWLPDRFXSDFLyQGHO\DFLPLHQ WRTXHTXHGRVHOODGRSRUXQGHUUXPEHGHVSXpVGHVX DEDQGRQR (VWR QRV SHUPLWH VXSRQHU TXH ODV PDQRV HQ SRVLWLYR \ QHJDWLYR SLQWDGDV HQ URMR DOJXQRV WUD]RVSDUHDGRV\PDQFKDVGHFRORUTXHDSDUHFHQHQ ODV SDUHGHV GH OD FXHYD GHELHURQ UHDOL]DUVH HQ XQD IHFKDFHUFDQDDODDQWHVVHxDODGD0RXUH\*RQ]iOH] 0RUDOHV *RQ]iOH] 6iLQ] (O KHFKRGHTXHHQHO*UDYHWLHQVHVHHPSOHDUDSLQWXUD
URMD HQ OD UHDOL]DFLyQ GH PDQRV \ SHTXHxRV WUD]RV QRVSXHGHKDFHUSHQVDUHQODH[LVWHQFLDGHILJXUDFLR QHVSLQWDGDVHQURMRDOJRGHORTXHSRUHOPRPHQWR QR VH WLHQHQ HYLGHQFLDV VHJXUDV SHUR TXH UHVXOWD IDFWLEOH
3RU OR TXH UHVSHFWD D ODV IDVHV LQWHUPHGLDV GHO 3DOHROtWLFR QR FRQWDPRV FRQ GHPDVLDGRV GDWRV /DV HYLGHQFLDV REMHWLYDV TXH QRV SHUPLWHQ VLWXDU DOJXQRVFRQMXQWRVUXSHVWUHVHQHO6ROXWUHQVHVRQPiV ELHQ HVFDVDV 7UDGLFLRQDOPHQWHKDQVLGRPXFKRVORV FRQMXQWRV UXSHVWUHV DWULEXLGRV D HVWD pSRFD SULQFL SDOPHQWHSRUKDEHUVHVLWXDGRHQHOHVWLOR,,,GH/HURL *RXUKDQYHU*RQ]iOH](FKHJDUD\\*RQ]iOH]6iLQ] 6LQ HPEDUJR D SDUWH GH DOJXQDV ILJXUDV GHO VHJXQGRKRUL]RQWHGHO$EULJRGHOD9LxDTXHVHJ~Q )RUWHD SXGLHURQ UHDOL]DUVH HQ HO 6ROXWUHQVH ,QLFLDO WDQVyORFRQWDPRVFRQRWURVGRV\DFLPLHQWRVTXHSRU SUHVHQWDU QLYHOHV 6ROXWUHQVHV FRPR ~QLFD RFXSDFLyQ GHO 3DOHROtWLFR 6XSHULRU SRGUtDQ VLWXDUVH FRQ FLHUWD VHJXULGDG HQ HVWD IDVH VLHQGR LPSRVLEOH SUHFLVDU HQ TXp PRPHQWR FRQFUHWR GH HOOD 1RV UHIHULPRV D ORV FRQMXQWRV GH OD /OXHUD , 6DQ -XDQ GH 3ULRUR $VWX ULDV\DODFXHYDGH7UHVFDODEUHV3RVDGDGH/ODQHV $VWXULDV
/D /OXHUD , 6DQ -XDQ GH 3ULRUR $VWXULDV FRQWLHQH XQ \DFLPLHQWR HQ FXUVR GH H[FDYDFLyQ FRQ LQGXVWULDV VROXWUHQVHV \ D]LOLHQVHV (Q VXV SDUHGHV DSDUHFHQ GLIHUHQWHV JUDEDGRV GH WUD]R VLPSOH \ SUR IXQGRGHVWDFDXQDSDUWHGHOFRQMXQWRFRQRFLGDFRQ HOQRPEUHGH´OD+RUQDFLQDµTXHLQWHJUDXQDFRP SRVLFLyQ GH VHLV XURV \ XQ FDEDOOR URGHDGRV SRU XQ FRQMXQWRGHFLHUYDV(QHOUHVWRGHSDQHOHVGRPLQDQ ODVFLHUYDVFRQDOJXQDFDEUD\FRQWRUQRVLQDFDEDGRV GHGLItFLOOHFWXUDILJ'HVGHHOSXQWRGHYLVWDHVWL OtVWLFRODVILJXUDFLRQHVVHOLPLWDQDODUHSUHVHQWDFLyQ GH ORV FRQWRUQRV QR PXHVWUDQ GHWDOOHV LQWHUQRV OD SHUVSHFWLYDHVSODQD\ODVOtQHDVFHUYLFRGRUVDOHVPX\ PDUFDGDV 3UHVHQWDQ SRU WDQWR XQD HVWUXFWXUDFLyQ GHODIRUPDHVTXHPiWLFRILJXUDWLYD)RUWHDODV VLW~DHQHOHVWLOR,,R,,,LQLFLDOGH/HURL*RXUKDQ\VH LQFOLQDSRUXQDFURQRORJtDGHLQLFLRVGHO6ROXWUHQVH DXQTXH SRGUtDQ VHU WDPELpQ GH XQD IDVH DYDQ]DGD GHO*UDYHWLHQVHHQOD]DQGRDVtFRQHOVHJXQGRKRUL ]RQWHGHODEULJRGHOD9LxD(VWHPLVPRDXWRUVXSRQH OD H[LVWHQFLD GH SDUDOHOLVPRV HVWLOtVWLFRV FODURV FRQ RWURVFRQMXQWRVGHOYDOOHGHO1DOyQFRPRORVGH0XU FLpODJRV *RGXOIR (QWUHIRFHV \ /DV 0HVWDV )RUWHD
/DFXHYDGH7UHVFDODEUHV3RVDGDGH/ODQHV $VWXULDV SUHVHQWD XQ \DFLPLHQWR DUTXHROyJLFR FRQ QLYHOHVVROXWUHQVHV\DVWXULHQVHV$OIRQGRGHODFDYL GDGDSDUHFHQGRVSDQHOHVHQORVTXHVHUHSUHVHQWDURQ XQXURXQDFDEH]DGHOPLVPRDQLPDOXQVLJQRYXO YDU \ DOJXQDV PDUFDV VXHOWDV WRGR HQ WUD]R OLQHDO URMR'HVGHXQSXQWRGHYLVWDHVWLOtVWLFRVXVFDUDFWH UtVWLFDV DSXQWDQ DO HVWLOR ,,, GH /HURL*RXUKDQ \ SUREDEOHPHQWHHOFRQMXQWRWHQJDODPLVPDFURQROR JtDTXHHOGHSyVLWRGHODERFD*RQ]iOH](FKHJDUD\\ *RQ]iOH]6iLQ]
GHILJXUDVFX\RSHUILOH[WHULRU\DYHFHVWDPELpQODV OtQHDVLQWHULRUHVGHOFXHUSRDQLPDOKDVLGRUHDOL]DGR PHGLDQWH XQD VXFHVLyQ GH SXQWRV R WDPSRQHV HQ FRORU URMR DSOLFDGRV FRQ XQ WUR]RGHSLHORGLUHFWD PHQWHFRQORVGHGRVILJ
(VWHWLSRGHWpFQLFDVREUHWRGRDVRFLDGDDOD UHSUHVHQWDFLyQ GH FLHUYDV \ FDEDOORV IXH PX\ HP SOHDGD HQ OD UHJLyQ FDQWiEULFD SXGLpQGRVH VHxDODU HQWUH RWURV PXFKRV OXJDUHV OD FXHYD GH OD $UHQD]D *DOGDPpV 9L]FD\D &RYDODQDV 5DPDOHV &DQWD EULD /D +D]D 5DPDOHV &DQWDEULD /D 3DVLHJD 3XHQWH 9LHVJR &DQWDEULD MXQWR FRQ RWURV TXH VH KDOODQ HQ SURFHVR GH LQYHVWLJDFLyQ FRPR $UFR $% 3RQGUD &DQWDEULD 3RQGUD 3RQGUD &DQWDEULD *RQ]iOH] 6iLQ] \ 6DQ 0LJXHO /ODPRVDV OD JDOHULDLQIHULRUGH/D*DUPD5LEDPRQWiQDO0RQWH &DQWDEULD$ULDVHWDOLLD\HO3HQGR(VFREHGR GH&DPDUJR&DQWDEULD0RQWHVHWDOLL5H FLHQWHPHQWH *RQ]iOH] 6iLQ] KD GLVFXWLGR OD DWULEXFLyQ FURQROyJLFD GH HVWRV FRQMXQWRV &RPR ELHQKDSUHFLVDGRHVWHDXWRUPXFKDVGHHVWDVILJXUDV IXHURQDWULEXLGDVSRUGLVWLQWRVLQYHVWLJDGRUHVDpSRFD 0DJGDOHQLHQVH DVt OR KL]R HQ FRKHUHQFLD FRQ VX PRGHOR HVWLOtVWLFR/HURL*RXUKDQTXHODVVLWXDEDHQ HO HVWLOR ,,, DYDQ]DGR /HURL*RXUKDQ (VWD PLVPDFURQRORJtDVH HQFXHQWUDHQORVWUDEDMRVGH) -RUGi TXLHQ DVLPLOD ODV ILJXUDV GH FLHUYDV WDPSRQDGDVFRQWUD]RDPSOLDGRRUHOOHQRHQOD]RQD GH OD EDUELOOD \ SHFKR D ORV JUDEDGRV HVWULDGRV GH FLHUYDVELHQSDULHWDOHVRPRELOLDUHVWtSLFDVGHO&DVWL OOR3XHQWH9LHVJR&DQWDEULD\$OWDPLUD6DQWLOODQD &DQWDEULD 6LQ HPEDUJR DOJXQRV DXWRUHV 0RXUH *RQ]iOH] 0RUDOHV \ *RQ]iOH] 6iLQ] \D SURSXVLHURQXQDFURQRORJtDVROXWUHQVHSDUDHVWHWLSR GH UHSUHVHQWDFLRQHV FXHVWLyQ HQ OD TXH *RQ]iOH] 6iLQ]FRPR\D KHPRVLQGLFDGRKDYXHOWRDLQFLGLU DSRUWDQGR QXHYDV DUJXPHQWDFLRQHV 3RU XQD SDUWH VXEUD\DODH[LVWHQFLDGHGLIHUHQFLDVWpFQLFDV\FRPSR VLWLYDVUHVSHFWRDODVFLHUYDVGHWUD]RHVWULDGRDVtSRU HMHPSOR IUHQWH D ODV RUHMDV HQ ´9µVLPSOHV GH ODV FLHUYDVSLQWDGDVHQURMRODVFLHUYDVHVWULDGDVSUHVHQ WDQVROXFLRQHVPXFKRPiVFRPSOHMDVFRQGREOHWUD]R \MHUDUTXL]DGDVHQSURIXQGLGDG3RURWURODGRVHKD SRGLGR FRQVWDWDU FyPR PXFKDV GH ODV ILJXUDV URMDV ORFDOL]DGDVUHFLHQWHPHQWHHQHOYDOOHGHO&DUUDQ]D 3RQGUD $UFR $ \ % QR SUHVHQWDQ WUD]RV WDPSRQD GRV QL DPSOLDGRV VLQR TXH KDQ VLGR UHDOL]DGRV FRQ WUD]R VLPSOH\~QLFRORTXHODVDSUR[LPDDDOJXQRV HMHPSORVGHO2ULHQWHGH$VWXULDVFRPR7UHVFDODEUHV <SRU~OWLPRVHKDSRGLGRFRQVWDWDUFyPRPXFKDV GH HVWDV FXHYDV FRQ ILJXUDV URMDV SUHVHQWDQ HQ VXV GHSyVLWRV LQGXVWULDV VROXWUHQVHV /D +D]D 0RXUH *RQ]iOH] 0RUDOHV*RQ]iOH]6iLQ]3DVLH JD 6WUDXV \HQHOFDVRGH$VWXULDV7UHVFDOD EUHV5RGUtJXH]$VHQVLR
6L HVWD DWULEXFLyQHV FRUUHFWD MXQWR FRQ ODV UHSUHVHQWDFLRQHV HVTXHPiWLFRILJXUDWLYDV WtSLFDV GHO VHJXQGR KRUL]RQWH TXH )RUWHD HVWDEOHFH SDUD HO 9DOOH GHO 1DOyQ YHUtDPRV FRPR WtPLGDPHQWH VH LUtDQ LQWURGXFLHQGR DOJXQRV HOHPHQWRV QXHYRV HQ FRQMXQWRV FRPR &RYDODQDV R /D +D]D HQ GRQGH VH SXHGHQ REVHUYDU GLIHUHQWHV DVSHFWRV (Q SULPHU OX
JDUODLQGLFDFLyQGHDOJXQRVGHWDOOHVLQWHUQRVFRPR ORV RMRV \ HO ROODU HQ FLHUYDV \ FDEDOORV HQ VHJXQGR OXJDUVHDGYLHUWHODLQWURGXFFLyQGHOWUD]RDPSOLDGR \DOJXQRVUHOOHQRVSDUFLDOHVHQHOLQWHULRUGHODVILJX UDV TXH PDUFDQ OD SUHRFXSDFLyQ SRU UHSUHVHQWDU HO HVSDFLR LQWHUQR GHO DQLPDO \ODVGLIHUHQFLDVGHYROX PHQ $O PLVPR WLHPSR VH REVHUYD XQD PD\RU SUH RFXSDFLyQ SRU OD SURIXQGLGDG TXH TXHGD UHIOHMDGD VREUHWRGRHQODUHSUHVHQWDFLyQGHODVH[WUHPLGDGHV <SRU~OWLPRVHSRQHGHPDQLILHVWRXQDMHUDUTXtDGH SURFHGLPLHQWRV\GHSDUWHVHQHODQLPDODVRFLiQGRVH IUHFXHQWHPHQWHODVSDUWHVPiVLGHQWLILFDWLYDVFDEH]D \ FXHOOR FRQ ORV SURFHGLPLHQWRV PiV FRVWRVRVWLQWD SODQD JUDEDGR DVRFLDGR WDPSRQDGR *RQ]iOH] 6iLQ]
3RU OR TXH UHVSHFWD DO 0DJGDOHQLHQVH FRQ WDPRVFRQXQLPSRUWDQWHQ~PHURGHILJXUDVGDWDGDV SRU HO SURFHGLPLHQWR GHO & $06 6H KDQ WR PDGRPXHVWUDVHQGLIHUHQWHVFRQMXQWRVILJORTXH QRV KD SHUPLWLGR IHFKDU GLVWLQWRV WLSRV GH PRWLYRV WDQWR ILJXUDFLRQHV FRPR VLJQRV $TXt QRV FHQWUDUH PRVVREUHWRGRHQHODQiOLVLVGHORVSULPHURV
8QRGHORVJUXSRVGHILJXUDVTXHVHKDSRGL GR HPSOD]DU FURQROyJLFDPHQWH FRQ EDVWDQWH DFLHUWR VRQDOJXQDVGHODVSLQWXUDVGHELVRQWHVSROtFURPDVR PRQyFURPDVTXHVHKDEtDQDWULEXLGRDOHVWLOR,9GH /HURL*RXUKDQ\FX\RVFDVRVPiVUHSUHVHQWDWLYRVORV WHQHPRVHQODVFXHYDVGH$OWDPLUD6DQWLOODQD&DQ WDEULD\(O&DVWLOOR3XHQWH9LHVJR&DQWDEULD
TXHHQHVWH~OWLPRFDVRFRPR\DKHPRVVHxDODGRVH GLIHUHQFLDQGRVPRPHQWRVGHHMHFXFLyQ
3RU VX SDUWH OD GDWDFLyQ GLUHFWD GH GRV GH ORV ELVRQWHV *LI$\*LI$YHUILJ ORFDOL]DGRV HQ HO FRQMXQWR UXSHVWUH GH &RYDFLHOOD &DUUHxD GH &DEUDOHV $VWXULDV VH GLVSRQHQ HQ XQ HVSDFLRFURQROyJLFRSUy[LPRDODVREWHQLGDVSDUDORV ELVRQWHV GH $OWDPLUD HV GHFLU HQ HO 0DJGDOHQLHQVH $QWLJXRR0HGLRORTXHHQFDMDEDVWDQWHELHQFRQOD DWULEXFLyQHVWLOtVWLFDGHOFRQMXQWRFX\DVFRQYHQFLRQHV QRV UHPLWHQ DO HVWLOR ,9 GH /HURL*RXUKDQ \ TXH GHQRWDQ DO PLVPR WLHPSR XQD FODUD FRQH[LyQ FRQ ODV UHSUHVHQWDFLRQHV GH DOJXQRV FRQMXQWRV SLUHQDLFRV
FRPR1LDX[)RUWHDHWDOLL
2WURJUXSRGHPRWLYRVTXHVHKDFRQVHJXLGR IHFKDUPHGLDQWHODDSOLFDFLyQGHO&$06HVHO FRQRFLGR GHVGH TXH /HURL*RXUKDQ UHDOL]DUD VX VtQWHVLVHQFRPR´ODVHULHQHJUDGH$OWDPLUDµ 6HWUDWDGHXQFRQMXQWRGHILJXUDVSLQWDGDVHQQHJUR TXHQRIRUPDQXQDYHUGDGHUDXQLGDGLFRQRJUiILFD\ HVWLOtVWLFD FRPSUHQGLHQGR UHSUHVHQWDFLRQHV GH DQL PDOHVVLJQRVPiVFDUDV\PDUFDV1RVRWURVQRVFHQ WUDUHPRV HQ HO DQiOLVLV GH ODV ILJXUDFLRQHV DQLPDOHV GHMDQGRGHODGRRWURVWHPDV'HVGHHOSXQWRGHYLVWD HVWLOtVWLFREXHQDSDUWHGHHVWDVSLQWXUDVKDQVLGRDWUL EXLGDV DO HVWLOR ,,, GH /HURL*RXUKDQ VLQ HPEDUJR FRPR VH KD VHxDODGR UHFLHQWHPHQWH 0RXUHHW DOLL DOJXQRV UDVJRV SDUHFHQ HVWDU PiV SUy[LPRV GHOHVWLOR,9FRPRGHQRWDQODVRUHMDVGHXQDGHODV FLHUYDV VLWXDGDV HQ µOD +R\Dµ ILJ ODH[LVWHQFLD GHGHVSLHFHVORQJLWXGLQDOHVHQXQELVRQWHGHODJDOHUtD 9\ODSUHVHQFLDGHYDULRVFDEDOORVFRQGHVSLHFHHQOD FULQHUD(QUHODFLyQFRQODVGDWDFLRQHVVHKDQWRPD GR GRV PXHVWUDV /D PXHVWUD *LISURFHGHQWH GHODJDOHUtD9IXHWRPDGDGHODFDEH]D\HOFRQ WRUQRVXSHULRUGHOFXHOORGHXQDFLHUYDYHUILJ\ GDWD GHO r %3 \ OD PXHVWUD *LI$ SURFHGHQWH GH XQD OtQHD QHJUD GH OD JDOHUtD ,,,,9 LQIUDSXHVWD D XQD FLHUYD JUDEDGD LQWHULRUPHQWH PH GLDQWH HVWULDGR IHFKDGD HQ HO r %3 ILJ eVWRLPSOLFDTXHDOPHQRVSDUWHGHHVWDVHULH QHJUD VH VLW~D HQ HO 0DJGDOHQLHQVH ,QIHULRU HQ XQ PRPHQWR LQPHGLDWDPHQWH DQWHULRU D ODV FLHUYDV HV WULDGDV0RXUHHWDOLL
2WUR GH ORV FRQMXQWRV ELHQ HVWXGLDGRV HV HO GHODFXHYDGHODV0RQHGDVHVSHFLDOPHQWHLPSRUWDQ WHDFDXVDGHODKRPRJHQHLGDGTXHSUHVHQWDGHVGHXQ SXQWRGHYLVWDWpFQLFR\HVWLOtVWLFRSLQWXUDQHJUDFRQ WLQWD SODQD HQ DOJXQDV ILJXUDV GHWDOOHV \ GHVSLHFHV LQWHUQRV DEXQGDQWHV /RV HVWXGLRV UHDOL]DGRV VREUH HVWH FRQMXQWR KDQ LQGLFDGR D SDUWLU GH DUJXPHQWRV LFRQRJUiILFRV \ SDOHRHFROyJLFRV VX DWULEXFLyQ D XQ PRPHQWR PX\ DYDQ]DGRGHO0DJGDOHQLHQVH5LSROO 3RU OR TXH UHVSHFWD D ODV PXHVWUDV GH UDGLR FDUERQR WRPDGDV HQ OD FXHYD VH FXHQWD FRQ GRV UHVXOWDGRVFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHVDXQFiSULGR\XQFDED OOR (Q HO FDVR GHO FDEDOOR OD GDWDFLyQ HV GH r %3 *LI$ \ r %3 *LI$eVWRKDKHFKRVXSRQHUODVLQFURQtDGHO FRQMXQWR \ VX ORFDOL]DFLyQ HQ XQ PRPHQWR PX\ DYDQ]DGRGHO0DJGDOHQLHQVHFDQWiEULFR
$O PDUJHQ GH ODV GDWDFLRQHV UDGLRFDUEyQL FDV KD\ XQD VHULH GH PRWLYRV TXH VH SXHGHQ XELFDU FURQROyJLFDPHQWH FRQ EDVWDQWH H[DFWLWXG SRU XQD SUHFLVDFRPSDUDFLyQFRQHODUWHPRELOLDU(QWUHHOORV WHQHPRV ODV FDEUDV HQ YLVLyQ IURQWDO ILJ GH ODV FXHYDV GHO 2WHUR 6HFDGXUD &DQWDEULD OD /DVWULOOD 6iPDQR &DQWDEULD \ (NDLQ 'HED 9L]FD\D 6H WUDWDGHXQPRWLYRPX\FDUDFWHUtVWLFRGHVGHHOSXQWR GH YLVWD GH VX HVWUXFWXUDFLyQ IRUPDO OR TXH SHUPLWH XQD FRPSDUDFLyQ GLUHFWD FRQ QXPHURVRV HMHPSORV PRELOLDUHV KDOODGRV HQ GLIHUHQWHV \DFLPLHQWRV (O 3HQGR(VFREHGRGH&DPDUJR&DQWDEULD&XHWRGH OD 0LQD 3RVDGD GH /ODQHV $VWXULDV *RQ]iOH] 6iLQ] /RUEODQFKHW 2WUR JUXSR GH UHSUHVHQWDFLRQHV ELHQ GDWDGR HV HO GH ODV FLHUYDVHVWULDGDVSUHVHQWDQHQVXLQWHULRUXQJUDEDGR HVWULDGR R P~OWLSOH VREUH WRGR HQ HO FXHOOR \ OD EDUELOOD/DSUHVHQFLDGHHVWDVFLHUYDVJUDEDGDVVREUH RPySODWRVHQORVQLYHOHVGHO0DJGDOHQLHQVH$QWLJXR GHO&DVWLOOR\$OWDPLUD9DOODGDVHWDOLL*RQ]i OH]6iLQ]DGHPiVGHOFDVRVHxDODGR\D GHXQDUHSUHVHQWDFLyQSDULHWDOGHFLHUYDVXSHUSXHVWD DXQDOtQHDQHJUDGDWDGDHQHOr%3*LI$ YHUILJWLHQGHQDVLWXDUHVWDVUHSUHVHQWD FLRQHV HQ HO 0DJGDOHQLHQVH $QWLJXR 0RXUHHW DOLL
GR ´SUHPDJGDOHQLHQVHµ DSHQDV VH XWLOL]DURQ SURFH GLPLHQWRV FRPSOHPHQWDULRV FX\R XVR DXPHQWDUi HQ HO0DJGDOHQLHQVHVLHQGRDVXYH]HVWHPRPHQWRHO TXH FRQWLHQH XQ PD\RU Q~PHUR GH ILJXUDV WpFQLFD PHQWH FRPSOHMDV DTXHOODV TXH FRPELQDQ HO HPSOHR GHWUHVRFXDWURWpFQLFDVGLIHUHQWHV
$KRUDELHQODSUHVHQFLDHQHO0DJGDOHQLHQ VH GH ILJXUDFLRQHVTXHSRGUtDPRVFRQVLGHUDU´UHDOLV WDVµ QR H[FOX\H QL PXFKR PHQRV OD H[LVWHQFLD GH RWURWLSRGHPRWLYRVTXHVLJXHQSDWURQHVHVTXHPiWL FRILJXUDWLYRV FRPR ELHQ LOXVWUD HODUWHPRELOLDUGHO 0DJGDOHQLHQVH )LQDO %DUDQGLDUiQ R ODVUHSUHVHQWDFLRQHVGHFDEUDHQYLVLyQIURQWDO (QFRQFOXVLyQGHVGHXQSXQWRGHYLVWDIRU PDOSDUHFHDSUHFLDUVHFyPRHQODVSULPHUDVIDVHVGHO DUWHUXSHVWUHGHODUHJLyQFDQWiEULFDODVILJXUDFLRQHV DQLPDOHVSUHVHQWDQXQDHVWUXFWXUDFLyQTXHSRGHPRV FRQVLGHUDUHVTXHPiWLFDILJXUDWLYDTXHYLHQHFDUDFWH UL]DGD SRU OD UHSUHVHQWDFLyQ FDVL H[FOXVLYD GHO FRQ WRUQR GHO DQLPDO OD SUiFWLFD LQH[LVWHQFLD GH GHWDOOHV LQWHUQRV \ HO XVR GH XQD SHUVSHFWLYD SODQD TXH QR FUHD HO HIHFWR GH SURIXQGLGDG (Q HO 6ROXWUHQVH DO PHQRVHQVXHWDSD,QLFLDODVLVWLPRVDODFRQWLQXLGDG GHHVWHPRGHORJHQHUDOGHUHSUHVHQWDFLyQDXQTXHVL DFHSWDPRVODSHUWHQHQFLDDHVWHSHULRGRGHODVILJXUDV URMDVWDPSRQDGDVGH&RYDODQDV/D+D]D\FRQMXQ WRVVLPLODUHVYHUHPRVHQpOODSUHVHQFLDLQFLSLHQWHGH UHOOHQRVSDUFLDOHVTXHWLHQHQFRPRREMHWRUHSURGXFLU HO HVSDFLR LQWHULRU GH OD ILJXUD OD LQWURGXFFLyQ GH DOJXQRVGHWDOOHVRMRERFDROODU \FLHUWDSUHRFXSD FLyQSRUODE~VTXHGDGHODSURIXQGLGDGTXHVHUHIOHMD VREUHWRGRHQODGLVSRVLFLyQGHODVH[WUHPLGDGHV<D HQHO0DJGDOHQLHQVHDVLVWLPRVDODJHQHUDOL]DFLyQGH FRQFHSWRV GH UHSUHVHQWDFLyQ \ SURFHGLPLHQWRV WpFQL FRV TXH DXPHQWDQ OD FRPSOHMLGDG GHVFULSWLYD GH OD ILJXUDFLyQ PHGLDQWH OD FRQVWUXFFLyQ GHO HVSDFLR LQ WHUQRGHODILJXUDODLQGLFDFLyQGHGHWDOOHV\HOHP SOHR GH XQD SHUVSHFWLYD TXH EXVFD HO HIHFWR GH SUR IXQGLGDG
6LQ HPEDUJR HQ QLQJ~Q PRPHQWR VXSRQH PRVTXHHVWRVFDPELRVWHQJDQXQFDUiFWHUQRUPDWL YR\DFHSWDPRVODFRQYLYHQFLDHQFXDOTXLHUKRUL]RQ WH GH SODQWHDPLHQWRV IRUPDOHV \ WpFQLFRV GLYHUVRV D SHVDUGHTXHFUHDPRVTXHHVWDGLYHUVLGDGIXHPHQRU HQ PRPHQWRV LQLFLDOHV GHO 3DOHROtWLFR 6XSHULRU \ PD\RU FRPR FRQVHFXHQFLD GH OD LQWURGXFFLyQ GH QXHYRVSURFHGLPLHQWRVHQpSRFD0DJGDOHQLHQVH
3RURWUDSDUWHQRSHQVDPRVTXHHVWRVFDP ELRVVHSURGX]FDQGHXQDIRUPDOHQWD\SURJUHVLYDHQ HOWLHPSRVLQRTXHHQGHWHUPLQDGRVPRPHQWRV\HQ FRQVRQDQFLD FRQ WUDQVIRUPDFLRQHV LQWHUQDV GH ODV VRFLHGDGHVSDOHROtWLFDVGHODUHJLyQFDQWiEULFDRSRU LQIOXHQFLDV GH UHJLRQHV YHFLQDV VH LQWURGXMHURQ \ GHVDUUROODURQQXHYRVPRGRVGHUHSUHVHQWDFLyQ
$O PLVPR WLHPSR VRPRV FRQVFLHQWHV GH ORV SUREOHPDVTXHH[LVWHQSRUHOPRPHQWRHQODRUJD QL]DFLyQWHPSRUDOGHODUWHSDULHWDOFDQWiEULFR&RPR \DKDQVHxDODGRRWURVDXWRUHV*RQ]iOH]6iLQ] 0RXUHHWDOLLORVUHVXOWDGRVGHODVGDWDFLRQHV SRUUDGLRFDUERQRVHUHILHUHQH[FOXVLYDPHQWHDO0DJ GDOHQLHQVH H LQFOXVR H[LVWHQ FRQMXQWRV FRPRHOGH &KLPHQHDVFX\DVIHFKDVHVWiQHQGLVFXVLyQ3RURWUR
ODGRHOPpWRGRGHODWHUPROXPLQLVFHQFLDDSOLFDGRHQ 9HQWD /DSHUUD \ OD FURQRORJtD UHODWLYD HVWDEOHFLGD SDUDHODEULJRGH/D9LxDGDQWHVWLPRQLRGHODUWHGH ODVIDVHVPiVDQWLJXDVGHO3DOHROtWLFR6XSHULRUPLHQ WUDV TXH DSHQDV WHQHPRV UHIHUHQFLDV FURQROyJLFDV ILDEOHVSDUDIDVHVLQWHUPHGLDV
&RPRSXHGHREVHUYDUVHQXHVWUDVSURSXHVWDV QRGHVHQWRQDQGHPDVLDGRFRQODVDSUHFLDFLRQHVPiV JHQHUDOHV VXJHULGDV SRU /HURL*RXUKDQ DXQ TXH KHPRV LQWHQWDGR HVFDSDU GHO PHFDQLFLVPR GH PXFKDV GH VXV DILUPDFLRQHV VLHQGR FRQVFLHQWHV GH TXHHVWDVLGHDVWDQVyORSXHGHQVHUDSOLFDEOHV\FRQ UHVHUYDV D OD UHJLyQ FDQWiEULFD \ QR WLHQHQ SRUTXH FRUUHVSRQGHUVH FRQ OR TXH VXFHGHHQRWUDViUHDVGHO PDUFRHXURSHR
&&2211&&//8866,,2211((66
(QUHODFLyQFRQHOPpWRGRGHHVWXGLRGHIHQ GHPRVODLPSRVLELOLGDGGHXQDDSUR[LPDFLyQH[FOX VLYDPHQWH IRUPDO SDUD YDORUDU HO FDPELR HVWLOtVWLFR GHODUWHSDULHWDO(QWHQGHPRVTXHODVFRPSDUDFLRQHV IRUPDOHV\ODVJHQHUDOL]DFLRQHVHVWLOtVWLFDVVyORSXHGHQ KDFHUVH D SDUWLU GH SUHVXSXHVWRV FURQROyJLFRV UHODWL YDPHQWH ILDEOHV TXH KDQ GH HVWDEOHFHUVH D SDUWLU GH GLVWLQWRV SURFHGLPLHQWRV GH GDWDFLyQ& $06 WHUPROXPLQLVFHQFLD FRUUHODFLyQ FRQ GHSyVLWRV DU TXHROyJLFRV HWF DMHQRV D OD SURSLD FRPSDUDFLyQ HVWLOtVWLFDGHQRVHUDVtHQWUDUHPRVHQXQDFLUFXODUL GDGDUJXPHQWDOHYLGHQWH
3RURWURODGRVHPXHVWUDLPSHUDQWHODQHFH VLGDGGHPDQWHQHUXQHQIRTXHHFOpFWLFRDODKRUDGH YDORUDUODYDULDELOLGDGIRUPDO\DTXHHVWDUHVSRQGHD P~OWLSOHV IDFWRUHV FURQROyJLFRV UHJLRQDOHV WLSR GH VRSRUWHFRQWH[WRVRFLDOHQHOTXHHVWHDUWHHVUHDOL]D GR\OHtGRIXQFLRQDOLGDG \HQPHQRUPHGLGDDODV KDELOLGDGHVLQGLYLGXDOHVGHODUWLVWD
3DUHFH LQFXHVWLRQDEOH TXH HO DUWH UXSHVWUH H[SHULPHQWyLPSRUWDQWHVWUDQVIRUPDFLRQHVDORODUJR GHO WLHPSR DO LJXDO TXH VXFHGH FRQ RWUDV SDUWHV GHO VLVWHPD FXOWXUDO SDOHROtWLFR\QRVSDUHFHSRVLEOHDO PHQRV D QLYHO UHJLRQDO HVWDEOHFHU VHFXHQFLDV GH FDPELR HVWLOtVWLFDV DSR\iQGRVH HQ VLVWHPDV GH GDWD FLyQ P~OWLSOHV \ FRPSOHPHQWDULRV &RPR KHPRV TXHULGRHMHPSOLILFDUHQHVWHDUWtFXORFRQHOFDVRGHOD UHJLyQFDQWiEULFD
JHQHUDURQ FDPELRV SHUPDQHQFLDVHLQIOXHQFLDVDOD SDUTXHVHLEDQWUDQVIRUPDQGRRWURVDVSHFWRVGHOD YLGD GH ORV JUXSRV SDOHROtWLFRVHFRQRPtD RUJDQL]D FLyQVRFLDO
3RU~OWLPRDSHVDUGHDERJDUSRUXQPRGH OR UHJLRQDO GH DQiOLVLV GHO DUWH SDOHROtWLFR HQWHQGH PRV TXH HV QHFHVDULR PDQWHQHU DO PLVPR WLHPSR XQDSHUVSHFWLYDGHFRQMXQWRTXHQRVSHUPLWDYDORUDU ORTXHHQ~OWLPRWpUPLQRHVXQIHQyPHQRJHQHUDOOD FDSDFLGDG GH VLPEROL]DU JUiILFDPHQWH \ GH FUHDU VLVWHPDV VHPLyWLFRV FRPSOHMRV TXH DSDUHFLHVH R QR HQ HO 3DOHROtWLFR 6XSHULRU 'DYLGVRQ \ 1REOH 'DYLGVRQ \ /LHEHUPDQHW DOLL
&KDVH \ 'LEEOH VLQ GXGD H[SHULPHQWy XQ SURFHVR GH LQFUHPHQWDFLyQ UHVSHFWR D PRPHQWRV DQWHULRUHV VLQHOFXDOVHUtDLPSRVLEOHFRPSUHQGHUOD DGDSWDFLyQ\HOGHVDUUROORGHODVVRFLHGDGHVKXPDQDV HQHVWHSHULRGR
%
%,,%%//,,22**55$$))ÌÌ$$
$3(//É1,=-00RGHORGHO$QiOLVLVGH$XWRUtD HQHO$UWH)LJXUDWLYRGHO3DOHROtWLFR8QLYHUVLGDGGH 'HXVWR%LOEDR
$3(//É1,=-0/DIRUPDGHODUWHSDOHROtWLFR\ ODHVWDGtVWLFD8QLYHUVLGDGGH'HXVWR %LOEDR $5,$6 3 *21=É/(= 6É,1= & 0285( $ \
217$fÐ15D/D*DUPD8QGHVFHQVR DOSDVDGR8QLYHUVLGDGGH&DQWDEULD\*RELHUQRGH &DQWDEULD6DQWDQGHUSS
$5,$6 3 &$/'(521 7 *21=É/(= 6É,1= & 0,//É1 $ 0285( $ 217$fÐ1 5 \ 58,= ,'$55$*$ 5 E ´'DWDFLRQHV$E VROXWDVSDUDHODUWHUXSHVWUHSDOHROtWLFRGH9HQWDGH OD 3HUUD &DUUDQ]D 9L]FD\Dµ .2%,( ;;9 SS
$51+(,05´(OHVWLORFRPRSUREOHPDJHVWiOWL FRµHQ$51+(,05HG1XHYRVHQVD\RVVREUH SVLFRORJtD GHO DUWH $OLDQ]D )RUPD 0DGULG SS
$51+(,0 5 $UWH \ SHUFHSFLyQ YLVXDO $OLDQ]D )RUPD0DGULG
%$5$1',$5É1 , ´$UWH PXHEOH GHO 3DOHROtWLFR FDQWiEULFR XQD YLVLyQ GHVtQWHVLVHQµ&RP SOXWXP0DGULGSS
%('1$5,.5Dµ7KH&{DSHWURJO\SKVDQRELWX DU\ WRWKHVW\OLVWLFGDWLQJRI3DODHROLWKLFURFNDUWµ $QWLTXLW\SS
%('1$5,.5E´7KHDJHRI&{DSHWURJO\SKVLQ 3RUWXJDOµ5RFN$UW5HVHDUFKSS %$+1 3 ´0HPEUDQH DQG QXPE EUDLQ D FORVH
ORRNDWDUHFHQWFODLPIRUVKDPDQLVPLQ3DODHROLWKLF DUWµ5RFN$UW5HVHDUFKSS
%,5'6(//-´6RPHHQYLURQPHQWDODQG&XOWXUDO )DFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ WKH 6WUXFWXULQJ RI $XVWUDOLDQ $ERULJLQDO 3RSXODWLRQVµ$PHULFDQ 1DWXUDOLVW SS
%5(8,/+´/·HYROXWLRQGHO·DUWSDULpWDOGDQVOHV FDYHUQHV HW DEULV RUQHpV GH )UDQFHµ &RQJUqV SUpKLVWRULTXH GH )UDQFH VHVLyQ 3pULJHX[ SS
%5(8,/ + 4XDWUHV FHQWV VLHFOHV G·$UW 3DULHWDO /HVFDYHUQHVRUQpHVGHO·JHGX5HQQH0D[)RXU Q\3DUtV
&$57$,/+$& ( < %5(8,/ + /D &DYHUQH G·$OWDPLUDj6DQWLOOODQHSUpV6DQWDQGHU (VSDJQH ,PSULPHULHGH0yQDFR0yQDFR
&+$6( 3 < ',%%/( / ´0LGGOH 3DODHROLWKLF V\PEROLVP D UHYLHZ RI FXUUHQW HYLGHQFHV DQG LQ WHUSUHWDWLRQVµ-RXUQDORI$QWKURSRORJLFDO$UFKDH
RORJ\SS
&/277(6 - ´&KDQJHPHQWV WKpPDWLTXHV GDQV O·DUWGX3DOpROLWKLTXHVXSpULHXUµ%XOO6RF3UHKLVW $ULqJH3\ULQpHV/SS
&/277(6 - ´7KH &KDXYHW FDYH GDWHV LPSODXVL EOH"µ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 1HZVOHWWHU RQ 5RFN $UW SS
&/277(6 - &+$89(7 -0 %581(/ '(6 &+$036 ( +,//$,5( & '$8*$6 -3 $512/' 0 &$&+,(5 + (9,1 - )25 7,1 3 29(5/,1 & 7,61(5$7 1 \ 9$ //$'$6 + ´5DGLRFDUERQGDWHVIRU7KH &KDXYHW3RQW'·$UFFDYHµ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 1HZVOHW WHURQ5RFN$UWSS
&/277(6-\/(:,6:,//,$06'´7UDQVH HW SDV WUDQVH UpSRQVH j 5REHUW +DPD\RQµ/HV 1RXYHOOHVGHO·$UFKpRORJLHSS
&21.(< 0 ´7KH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI 3UHKLVWRULF +XQWHU*DWKDUHU $JJUHJDWLRQV 6LWHV 7KH FDVH RI $OWDPLUDµ&XUUHQW $QWKURSRORJ\ SS
&21.(< 0 ´([SHULPHQWLQJ ZLWK VW\OH LQ DU FKDHRORJ\ VRPH KLVWRULFDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO LVVXHVµ HQ&21.(<0\+$6725)&HGV7KHXVHV RI VW\OH LQ DUFKDHRORJ\ &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV1HZ&DVWOHSS
'$9,'621 , ´7KH DUFKDHRORJ\ RI ODQJXDJH RULJLQVµ$QWLTXLW\SS
'$9,'621 , ´7KH SRZHU RI SLFWXUHVµ HQ &21.(< 0 62))(5 2 675$70$11 \ -$%/216.,1HGV%H\RQG$UW3OHLVWRFHQH,P DJHDQG6\PERO6DQ)UDQFLVFRSS '$9,'621,\12%/(:´7KH$UFKDHRORJ\
RI SHUFHSWLRQ 7UDFHV RI GHSLFWLRQ DQG ODQJXDJHµ &XUUHQW$QWKURSRORJ\SS '(//8&%\'(//8&*/·DUWSDULpWDODUFKDw TXHHQ$TXLWDLQH&156;9,,,VXSSOpPHQWj*D OOLD3UpKLVWRLUH3DUtV '(/3257(+/DLPDJHQGHORVDQLPDOHVHQHO DUWHSUHKLVWyULFR&RPSDxtD/LWHUDULD0DGULG )257($ - ´&XHYDV GH OD /OXHUD $YDQFH DO
HVWXGLR GH VXV DUWHV SDULHWDOHVµ HQ *21=É/(= 025$/(60HG&LHQDxRVGHVSXpVGH6DXWXR OD6DQWDQGHUSS
)257($ - ´$EULJR GH OD 9LxD ,QIRUPH GH ODV FDPSDxDV µ([FDYDFLRQHV $UTXHROyJL FDVHQ$VWXULDV3ULQFLSDGRGH$VWXULDV 2YLHGRSS
)257($ - ´$EULJR GH OD 9LxD ,QIRUPH GH ODV FDPSDxDVDµ([FDYDFLRQHV$UTXHROyJL FDVHQ$VWXULDV3ULQFLSDGRGH$VWXULDV 2YLHGRSS
*$0%/(&´,QWHUDFWLRQDQG$OOLDQFHLQ3DODHR OLWKLFVRFLHW\µ0DQ-RXUQDO2IWKH5R\DO$QWKUR SRORJLFDO,QVWLWXWHSS
*$0%/( & 7KH 3DODHROLWKLF 6HWWOHPHQW RI (XURSH:RUOG$UFKDHRORJ\&DPEULGJH
*É/9(= /$9Ì1 1 /DV WpFQLFDV GH UHSUHVHQWD FLyQ HQ HO DUWH UXSHVWUH SDOHROtWLFR GH OD 5HJLyQ &DQWiEULFD XWLOL]DFLyQ GLIHUHQFLDO HQ ORV WHPDV DQLPDOHV7UDEDMRGH7HUFHU&LFOR8QLYHUVLGDGGH &DQWDEULD
*21=É/(= (&+(*$5$< - \ *21=É/(= 6É,1= & ´&RQMXQWRV UXSHVWUHV SDOHROtWLFRV GH OD FRUQLVDFDQWiEULFDµ&RPSOXWXP(GLWRULDO&RP SOXWHQVH0DGULGSS
*21=É/(=6É,1=&´(QWRUQRDORVSDUDOHORV HQWUHHODUWHPRELOLDU\HOUXSHVWUHµ9HOHLD9L WRULD
*21=É/(= 6É,1= & ´$OJXQRV SUREOHPDV DFWXDOHV HQODRUGHQDFLyQFURQROyJLFDGHODUWHSD OHROtWLFRHQ&DQWDEULDµ,(QFXHQWURGH+LVWRULDGH &DQWDEULD 7RPR , 8QLYHUVLGDG GH &DQWDEULD \ *RELHUQRGH&DQWDEULD6DQWDQGHU SS *21=É/(=6É,1=&\6$10,*8(///$026$6
&´$YDQFHDOHVWXGLRGHORVFRQMXQWRVUX SHVWUHVSDOHROtWLFRVGHOGHVILODGHURGHOUtR&DUUDQ]D 5DPDOHVGHOD9LFWRULD/DVFXHYDVGHO$UFR3RQ GUD \ 0RUUR GHO +RULGLOORµ,, &RQJUHVR GH $U TXHRORJtD3HQLQVXODU,SS
*52(1(103RXUXQHKLVWRLUHGHODSUpKLVWRLUH -pU{PH0LOORQ*UHQREOH
+$0$<21 5 ´/D WUDQVH G·XQ SUpKLVWRULHQ j SURSRV GX OLYUH GH - &ORWWHV HW ' /HZLV :L OOLDPVµ/HV1RXYHOOHVGHO·$UFKDpRORJLHSS
-25'É)´6REUHWpFQLFDVWHPDV\HWDSDVGHODUWH SDOHROtWLFRGHODUHJLyQFDQWiEULFDµ=HSK\UXV SS
-25'É)´/RVHVWLORVHQHODUWHSDULHWDOGHO0DJ GDOHQLHQVH FDQWiEULFRµ &XUVR GH $UWH 5XSHVWUH 3DOHROtWLFR8,036DQWDQGHUSS
/$0,1*(03(5$,5( $ /D VLJQLILFDWLRQ GH O·DUWUXSHVWUHSDOHROLWKLTXH3LFDUG3DUtV
/(52,*285+$1 $ /DV 5HOLJLRQHV GH OD 3UHKLVWRULD/DHUWHV%DUFHORQD
/(52,*285+$1 $ 3UpKLVWRLUHGHO·$UW2F FLGHQWDO0D]HQRG3DUtV
/(:,6:,/,$06-<'$:6217´7KHVLQJV RIDOOWLPHV(QWRSWLFSKHQRPHQDLQ8SSHU3DODHR OLWKLFDUWµ&XUUHQW$QWKURSRORJ\SS /,(%(50$13/$,70$1-75(,'(0%$5*-6
\*$11213-´7KHDQDWRP\SK\VLRO RJ\ DFRXVWLFV DQG SHUFHSWLRQ RI VSHHFK HVVHQWLDO HOHPHQWV LQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH HYROXWLRQ RI KXPDQ VSHHFKµ-RXUQDORI+XPDQ(YROXWLRQSS
/25%/$1&+(7 0 ´)URP QDWXUDOLVP WR DE VWUDFWLRQ LQ (XURSHDQ SUHKLVWRULF URFN DUWµ HQ 8FNR3HG)RUPLQLQGLJHQRXVDUW6FKHPDWLVD WLRQ LQ WKH DUW RI $ERULJLQDO $XVWUDOLD DQG SUHKLV WRULF (XURSH $XVWUDOLDQ ,QVWLWXWH RI $ERULJLQDO 6WXGLHV&DPEHUUD
/25%/$1&+(70´7KHDUFKDHRORJLFDOVLJQLIL FDQFHRIWKHUHVXOWVRISLJPHQWDQDO\VHVLQ4XHUF\ FDYHVµ5RFN$UW5HVHDUFKSS
/25%/$1&+(7 0 /HV JURWWHV RUQpHV GH OD 3UpKLVWRLUH1RXYHDX[UHJDUGV(UUDQFH3DUtV /25%/$1&+(70/DQDLVVDQFHGHO·DUW*HQq
VH GH O·DUW SUpKLVWRULTXH GDQV OH PRQGH (UUDQFH 3DUtV
/25%/$1&+(7 0 \ %$+1 3 ´5RFN $UW 6WXGLHV7KH3RVW6W\OLVWLF(UDRU:KHUHGRZHJR IURPKHUH"µ2[ERZ0RQRJUDSK2[IRUG /848(7*/HUHDOLVPHGDQVO·DUWUXSHVWUHSDOpR
OLWKLTXH3LFDUG3DUtV
0É548(=85Ì$0´/RV*UDEDGRV 5XSHVWUHV GH /D &XHYD GHO &RQGH 7XxyQ $VWXULDV 1RWD SUHOLPLQDUµ $OWDPLUD 6\PSRVLXP 0LQLVWHULR GH &XOWXUD0DGULGSS
0217(656$1*8,12-*Ð0(=/$*81$$-\ *21=É/(= /848( & ´&XHYD GHO 3HQGR 1XHYDV PDQLIHVWDFLRQHV UXSHVWUHV SDOHROtWL FDVµ5HYLVWDGH$UTXHRORJtDSS 0285( $ ´$UWH UXSHVWUH \ JHRJUDItDV VRFLDOHV
$VHQWDPLHQWR PRYLOLGDG \ DJUHJDFLyQ HQ HO ILQDO GHO3DOHROtWLFR&DQWiEULFRµ&RPSOXWXP(GLWR ULDO&RPSOXWHQVH0DGULGSS
0285( $ *21=É/(= 025$/(6 0 \ *21=É/(=6É,1=&´/DVSLQWXUDVUX SHVWUHV SDOHROtWLFDV GH OD FXHYD GH &RYDODQDV 5D PDOHVGHOD9LFWRULD&DQWDEULDµ7UDEDMRVGH3UH KLVWRULDSS
0285( $ *21=É/(= 6É,1= & \ *21=É/(= 025$/(60/DVFXHYDVGH5DPDOHVGHOD 9LFWRULD &DQWDEULD 8QLYHUVLGDG GH &DQWDEULD 6DQWDQGHU
0285($*21=É/(=6É,1=&%(51$/'2'( 48,5Ð6 ) \ &$%5(5$ 9$/'e6 9 ´'DWDFLRQHVDEVROXWDVGHSLJPHQWRVHQFXHYDVFDQ WiEULFDV $OWDPLUD (O &DVWLOOR &KLPHQHDV \ /DV 0RQHGDVµ HQ 0285( 520$1,//2 $ HG ´(O +RPEUH )yVLOµ DxRV GHVSXpV 8QLYHUVLGDG GH&DQWDEULD6DQWDQGHUSS
52'5Ì*8(=$6(16,2-´/D&XHYDGH7UHV FDODEUHV3RVDGDGH/ODQHV$VWXULDV\VXVSLQWXUDV UXSHVWUHVµ([FDYDFLRQHV$UTXHROyJLFDVHQ$VWXULDV 3ULQFLSDGRGH$VWXULDV2YLHGRSS
526(1)(/'$´$UFKDHRORJLFDOVLJQDWXUHVRIWKH VRFLDO FRQWH[W RI URFN DUW SURGXFWLRQµ HQ &21.(<062))(52675$70$11' \ -$%/216., 1 HGV%H\RQG $UW 3OHLVWRFHQH ,PDJHDQG6\PERO6DQ)UDQFLVFRSS 526(1)(/'$\60,7+&´5HFHQW GHYHORS
PHQWVLQUDGLRFDUERQDQGVW\OLVWLFPHWKRGVRIGDW LQJURFNDUWµ$QWLTXLW\SS 6$1='(6$8782/$0%UHYHVDSXQWHVVREUH
DOJXQRV REMHWRV SUHKLVWyULFRV GH OD 3URYLQFLD GH 6DQWDQGHU ,PSUHQWD \ /LWRJUDItD GH 7HOHVIRUR 0DUWtQH]6DQWDQGHU
675$86 /* (O 6ROXWUHQVH YDVFRFDQWiEULFR 8QDQXHYDSHUVSHFWLYD&,0$0RQRJUDItDVQ 0DGULG
8&.23\526(1)(/'$3DODHROLWKLF &DYH $UW:HLGHQIHOGDQG1LFROVRQ/RQGUHV
8&.2 3 ´'pEXWV LOOXVRLUHV GDQV O·pWXGH GH OD WUDGLWLRQDUWLVWLTXHµ%XOO6RF3UHKLW$ULqJH3\Up QpHV;/,,SS
9$//$'$6 + &$&+,(5 + 0$85,&( 3 %(5 1$/'2'(48,5Ð6)&$%5(5$9$/'e6 98=48,$123\$512/'0 ´'L UHFW UDGLRFDUERQ GDWHV IRU SUHKLVWRULF SDLQWLQJV DW WKH$OWDPLUD(O&DVWLOORDQG1LDX[FDYHVµ1DWXUH
SS
3,1785$ *5$%$'2
$85,f$&,(16( $85,f$&,(16(
xx 0DQRVHQQHJDWLYRURMDVRQHJUDV0HDQGURVDQDUDQMDGRV\URMRV
x 5DURVFRQWRUQRVOLQHDOHV
x 7UD]RVGLJLWDOHVVREUHDUFLOODHQRFDVLRQHVFRQ UHSUHVHQWDFLRQHVSULPLWLYDVGHDQLPDOHV
x &ODYLIRUPHV
x 0DQRVHQSRVLWLYR
x 5HSUHVHQWDFLRQHVSULPLWLYDVGHDQLPDOHVHQ URMR
x 0DQRVHQQHJDWLYRYLROHWDV
x *UDEDGRVPX\SULPLWLYRVXWLOL]DQGRORVDFFLGHQWHV
QDWXUDOHVGHODURFD$XULxDFLHQVHPHGLR
xx )LJXUDVOLQHDOHVDPDULOOHQWDV)LJXUDVOLQHDOHVURMDV x )LJXUDFLRQHVLQFLVDVGHYXOYDV\DYHFHVIDORV
x )LJXUDVOLQHDOHVHQWUD]REDERVRURMR x *UDEDGRVGHDQLPDOHVFRPSOHWRV
x 7LQWDVSODQDVURMDVLQFRPSOHWDV x 7LQWDVSODQDVURMDVFRPSOHWDV
x 7LQWDVSODQDVQHJUDVLQFRPSOHWDV
x 7LQWDVSODQDVQHJUDVFRPSOHWDV
x %DMRUUHOLHYHV
x )LJXUDVGHFRQWRUQRQHJURVREUHIRQGRURMR
x )LJXUDVGHWUD]ROLQHDO ELHQHMHFXWDGDV
62/875(16( 62/875(16(
x 0DQRVHQSRVLWLYRURMDV
x /tQHDVGHSXQWRV x %ORTXHVHVFXOSLGRV\HQRFDVLRQHVJUDEDGRV
0$*'$/(1,(16( 0$*'$/(1,(16(
x &RQWRUQRVVLPSOHVGHDQLPDOHVHQQHJUR0DJG,,,,9 x (QORV3LULQHRVIUDQFHVHVJUDEDGRVUHOOHQRVFRQEDQGDVSDUDOHODV0DJG,,,
x &RQWRUQRVHQWUD]REDERVRQHJURPX\ODU JRV\JURVHURV0DJG,9
x 7LQWDVSODQDVLQFRPSOHWDVHQQHJUR0DJG
,9
x (Q'RUGRxDEORTXHV\SDUHGHVHVFXOSLGDVHQ
DOWRUUHOLHYH
x &RQWRUQRVKiELOPHQWHGHOLQHDGRV\UHOOHQRV LQWHUQRV
x )LJXUDVQHJUDVFRQPRGHODGRLQWHULRU0DJG
9
x )LJXUDVGHEXpQHVWLORHQWLQWD~QLFDURMD
x )LJXUDVSROtFURPDVLPSHUIHFWDPHQWHFRQWRU QHDGDVHQQHJUR0DJG9,
x )LJXUDVSROtFURPDVSHUIHFWDPHQWHFRQWRU QHDGDVHQQHJUR
x )LJXUDVQDWXUDOLVWDVHQWUD]RURMRPX\VLPSOH\QXPHURVRVVLJQRVSURWRDFLOLHQVHV
x 6LJQRVD]LOLHQVHV
)
)LJ&URQRORJtDGHORVSHULRGRV\HVWLORVGHO3DOHROtWLFR6XSHULRUVHJ~Q/HURL*RXUKDQ
)
)
)LLJJ0DSDGHODUHJLyQFDQWiEULFDFRQORVSULQFLSDOHVFRQMXQWRVGHDUWHUXSHVWUHVHJ~Q$ULDVHWDOLLD
)
)LLJJ&DEDOORJUDEDGR\WUD]RVLQFLVRVGHOVHJXQGRKRUL]RQWHGHODEULJRGHOD9LxDVHJ~Q/RUEODQFKHW
)
)
)LLJJ3DQHOFRQFLHUYDVJUDEDGDVGHODFXHYDGHOD/OXHUDVHJ~Q/RUEODQFKHW
)
('
8
$
5
'
2
3$/$
&
,2
3e5(
=
)
1
$
6
&
21
6,'(
5
$
&
,21(
6
62%
5
(
(/
35
2
%
/(
0
$
'(
/
(6
7,/
2
<
/$
)2
5
0
$
'(
/
$5
7(
3
$
/(
2
/Ë
7,&
2
)
)
)LLJJ &DOFRGH%UHXLOGHORVELVRQWHVGHO&DVWLOORQD\EFRQLQGLFDFLyQGHODVGDWDFLRQHVREWHQLGDVHQ
VHJ~Q0RXUHHWDOLL
)
)
)LLJJ&LHUYDHQWUD]RQHJURGHOD+R\DVHJ~Q0RXUHHWDOLL
)
)LLJJ7UD]RQHJURLQIUDSXHVWRDXQDFLHUYDJUDEDGD FRQEDQGDVGHHVWULDGRVHJ~Q0RXUHHWDOLL
)
